This is the final look at the Blues drafts run under Jarmo Kekalainen. Unlike the years 2003-2008, it’s too early to assign grades to the entire draft or to individual players; all that can be done is to see how guys have performed to date and the expectation going forward, armed with a few years of hindsight.
Links to the prior review:
2003-2004
2005-2006
2007-2008
2009 - the first draft that the Blues picked outside the top-10 after making the playoffs since 2004.
17. David Rundblad, D, Skelleftea (SWE). The #6 skater from Europe according to Central Scouting, Rundblad had spent much of the 2008-09 season in the Elitseiren, picking up 10 assists in 45 games. Not bad for an 18-year old; he also pitched in 8-7-15 in just 10 games with the junior club. However, Rundblad would not be with the Blues long as he was dealt almost a year later to Ottawa – and just over a year later, he’d get dealt to Phoenix.
What to make of this? On one hand, he’s now with his 3rd team and hasn’t cracked the ‘Yotes lineup consistently (only 8 games this year, going 0-1-1). However, at just 22 and with a grand total of 106 pro games of experience (38 NHL, 68 AHL) it’s hard to make any definitive conclusions. He’s clearly produced in the Elitseiren (his last year there was 2010-11, when he put up 11-39-50 at the age of 20) and he’s currently 8-21-29 in 38 games at Portland (AHL), so patience may be warranted here. He also returned a 1st round pick that was used on some guy on the Blues roster, whose name escapes me … well, it’s not like he’s important or interesting anyway.
48. Brett Ponich, D, Portland (WHL). This was not a popular pick with Blues fans, and even Kekalainen admitted this was a pick that was going to take more than a few years to pan out - but it was a true "swing for the fences" pick in typical Kekalainen style. Ranked 151st by Central Scouting among NA skaters, Ponich is a huge 6’7” defenseman who was projected to be a stay-at-home defenseman and, despite his ranking, was projected by some to go as high as the late 3rd or early 4th round. His level of play improved noticeably in ’09-10 in the WHL, and he was making even more progress in ’10-11 until tearing his ACL in mid-January.
Ponich wasn’t going to be in the NHL quickly, and that was before the knee injury; since then, his development has slowed and he’s noticeably less mobile. While this is a pick we won’t be able to judge for at least 3-4 more years, it may end up being one that’s marked with an asterisk due to that knee injury.
78. Sergei Andronov, RW, Lada Togilatti (KHL). An overage pick, Andronov was ranked #24 among European skaters by Central Scouting. Andronov has at least made the jump to North America, but this is still likely to be a 2-3 year transition for him before he’s ready for the NHL. Possesses a scoring touch, the capability to set up others, and a little size at 6’2”, 200 lbs. It’s probably a little better than 50/50 that Andronov makes it to the NHL, but it’s not likely he’s going to be a long-term NHL player.
108. Tyler Shattock, RW, Kamloops (WHL) . Shattock wasn’t in Central Scouting’s final rankings, but he had attention from a few teams. At 6’3”, Shattock has experience playing all three forward positions and demonstrated the ability to play 2-way hockey in the WHL. However, in the 3 years he’s been in the AHL so far he’s not shown that same offensive side to the game. Shattock’s NHL future is going to be on the 4th line; he may yet develop into a defensive-oriented forward who can play a useful role, but it may not be with the ‘Note.
168. David Shields, D, Erie (OHL) . Also unranked by Central Scouting, Shields has good size at 6’3”, 216 lbs., plays a safe stay-at-home defenseman game, and doesn’t look out of place on the blueline so far in Peoria. A right-handed shot, he’s probably stuck on the depth chart with the Blues right now but a trip to the NHL isn’t out of the question – and if he gets there, he may be there for more than a cup of coffee.
202. Max Tardy, C, Duluth East (USHS-MN) . Ranked #144 among NA skaters by Central Scouting, Tardy was a Mr. Hockey finalist his senior year and spent a year with Tri-City (USHL) before going to Minnesota-Duluth, where he primarily filled a 4th-line role with spot time on the PP, including his GWG in the Bulldogs 2012 national title game victory. All of that said, Tardy is
not going to be a guy you count on to score lots of goals; he’s going to be a 4th-line guy who maybe can win faceoffs, and that’s it – but that may be enough to get him to the NHL for a few games.
Grade: incomplete. Thus far, Rundblad is the only pick of the 6 to make it to the NHL, and despite his struggles to stick to an NHL roster other teams think he’s got loads of potential and would be very interested in him if offered via trade. (Plus, he brought us someone we wouldn’t have otherwise been able to select.) After that, someone may have to surprise to make this crop look good.
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2010 - the final draft in St. Louis under Kekalainen’s watch – and he might have left a nice parting gift or two (or more).
14. Jaden Schwartz, C, Tri-City (USHL). Ranked #28 among North American skaters by Central Scouting, most places had Schwartz as a 1st-round pick in the 25-30 range. Skill was never the question with Schwartz, it was size (5’10”, 180 lbs.) – but he consistently put up numbers wherever he went in spite of that.
With Tri-City, Schwartz was 33-50-83 as a 17-year old despite considerable attention paid to him when he was on the ice. He took that skill to Colorado College, going 32-56-88 in 60 games over two seasons, before leaving CC for the Blues. While critics will point to his lack of scoring and his defensive struggles so far, those same critics neglect to remember that he has just 32 NHL games under his belt – and also fail to realize he’s displayed some pretty good offensive instincts while playing 3rd and 4th line hockey. Schwartz’s future is going to be on the top-2 lines, and as he gains more experience he’s only going to improve that much more.
16. Vladimir Tarasenko, RW, Novosibirsk (KHL). The Blues originally had only the pick at 14 in the first round – but then swapped 2009 1st-rounder Rundblad to Ottawa to acquire this pick. As Kekalainen said after making the selection, “if his name was Walt Smith, he would have been long gone at 16.” Through 18 games of his NHL career, it’s likely that a few teams that picked ahead of #16 in that draft wish they had taken that chance – and if this year to date is a sign of things to come, those teams (and maybe a couple others) are going to kick themselves even more.
The #2 ranked European skater by Central Scouting, Tarasenko was just about universally described as having top-10 talent – but the entire “he’s a Russian” stigma hung over him and affected his draft status. Fortunately for Blues fans, Kekalainen ignored it and focused on talent – and Tarasenko has that in spades. He has a wicked wrist shot, great ice vision, and isn’t afraid to go into traffic to score goals – and his defense isn’t terrible either for someone trying to get used to the NA game. But, this really shouldn’t be a surprise; Tarasenko put up points in the KHL in limited playing time in 2011-12, and exploded in the playoffs that year for 10-6-16 in 15 games. Blues fans who were upset that he didn’t make the jump to NA immediately and screamed for him to be traded, … well, hopefully they’re realizing patience isn’t such a bad thing.
44. Sebastian Wannstrom, RW, Brynas (SWE). . Ranked #27 among European skaters by Central Scouting, Wannstrom played the following two years in the Elitseiren – mostly on the back lines. He made the jump to NA for 2012-13, but split time between Peoria (AHL) and Evansville (ECHL) before returning to Sweden in a mutually-agreed upon move to get him more ice time. Don’t take the leave for Sweden as a bad thing just yet – at 22, he really needs lots of playing time (something he wasn’t getting in NA … and probably won’t get a ton of in Sweden, either) to unlock things.
74. Max Gardiner, C, Minnetonka (USHS-MN) . Ranked #49 by Central Scouting, Max is the younger brother of Jake Gardiner. Originally slated to play at Minnesota, Max spent one year there before leaving for Dubuque (USHL) for a season, then transferring to a Penn State program that started play in 2012-13 where he’s put up decent numbers (3-19-22). At 6’3”, he’s got size and if he can refine his game some, may have a scoring touch he can bring to the pro game – but he probably translates best to a 3rd or 4th line guy at the NHL level who can play effective defense and has enough offense to be a threat.
104. Jani Hakanpaa, D, K-Vantaa U18 (FIN) . Ranked 55th among European skaters, Jani is big (6’4”, 218 lbs.) and has shown the ability to generate offense – but I’m not sure how well it will translate to the NA game. Defensively, he’s solid enough and should get better there – and making the jump to NA (he recently joined the Rivermen) will only help. Don’t expect him to immediately be in the NHL (playing the right side, there’s a logjam there) but he should make it for more than a handful of games.
134. Cody Beach, RW, Calgary (WHL). The bigger (6’5”, 205 lbs.), younger brother of Blackhawks 1st-round pick Kyle Beach, Cody doesn’t have nearly the upside of Kyle – but he’s probably more likely to hit it. Cody has bounced between the AHL and ECHL this year, and he doesn’t project to be more than a 4th-line enforcer … so if he doesn’t make it, it’s really not going to be that big of a loss – and anything he contributes above that will be a bonus.
164. Stephen Macaulay, LW, Saint John (QMJHL) . Ranked #85 by Central Scouting, Macaulay had a couple decent (but not awe-inspiring) seasons for Saint John, and the Blues decided not to tender a contract before the 2012 draft. Macaulay is still in the Q, currently with Halifax, and has 31-31-62 in 59 games as a 20-year old (turns 21 in April) … so don’t be that impressed. Even so, Macaulay would have been doing good to make it to the NHL for even one game – and that would have been as a 4th-line grinder.
Grade: incomplete – but looks promising. Tarasenko looks like a grand-slam, Schwartz has all kinds of potential to improve, and the Blues have lots of time still to get something out of the rest of the draft (except for Macaulay). It’s how those guys do that will help decide whether this turns into a really strong draft class, or one that tailed off after Schwartz and Tarasenko.
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Wednesday, I'll do a recap of all 8 drafts as well as a look at what to expect (and not expect) for Columbus at the draft going forward.
Later tonight: the GDT for the Blues/Canucks. If you're going to stay up and watch, remember that it's a late game tonight.
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