There. I said it.

First, I am not a huge Semin fan. Second, I don't discount for a second that this move could be a complete bust. And in no way would I do a long-term deal.

But I say the Canes offer 1 year at full value ($6-7M) or 2 years at slight discount (about $11M).

I think the NHL hockey salary market is completely miscalculating the risk thing this summer. And because of it, people are way overbidding and underestimating risk on certain kinds of deals and way overcompensating for risk in deals like Semin. The old finance classes tell me that when the market misprices an asset is when you make the most profit. I don't see how anyone can really believe that years 7-12 in a 12-year contract for a guy who will be 33-34 then is so risk-free. And how is trading 2-3 good assets and then stilling paying $5M for someone like Bobby Ryan even if you can get him in the bidding war, risk free?

For Semin and the Canes it goes like this:
-On a pure talent basis he is easily in the same league as Zach Parise.
-I get the issue with effort and all the other bugaboos.
-What actually concerns me most is the lack of playoff production when it should be easy to find the motivation. But the goal right now in July is not winning in the playoffs. After 3 years of no playoffs, the goal right now is to get in.
-The guy should have a bee in his bonnet this year. He watches bidding wars for a dozen years and a dozen million dollars in signing bonuses this summer and at the same time has to read how no one wants him, how someone might do short-term for $5M/year, how he has all these issues.
-And in the event that Semin is sub-par on his 1-year deal and the Canes flop, you can dump about 25% of that salary in March and get a decent draft pick in return from a team looking to add offense.

I have to think that Semin would take a deal like this. He gets the following:
-Top dollar even though it is only for 1 year.
-A chance on a team where he gets top billing in terms of linemates, power play time, etc.
-So this is his chance to dispel the demons and then get the blockbuster deal for more years next summer because at this point I think it is obvious that he is not going to get it this summer.

Take 1 of the 10-15 most talented offensive players in the league who is in his prime. Give him a "prove it" deal. Light a fire under his butt. Turn him loose. And watch him tear off at least 35 goals.

And worst case is that you wasted a single year on him. Heck the Canes need to find a way to spend about $3M more to reach the minimum (assuming it does not change) anyway, so consider this a $3M risk that could pay HUGE dividends. IF Semin played as capable, might the Canes suddenly then have as good of a top 6 as anyone in the NHL?

You go from mediocre to great by taking and being right on calculated risks. This is one of them. Come on JR. Sometime after Doan is signed and Ryan possibly traded, the herd of overbidders traveling in a pack will move on to Semin. The time to act is now - before they get there.

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Go Canes!

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