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My Offseason Advice To The Hawks |
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This is probably a bit premature, as I haven't posted my Hawk season grades yet. Look for those next week. But there does seem to be a lot of activity going on vis a vis re-signing UFA's already, and I thought I'd better weigh in before it gets too far, or too late.
Not that Tallon, Bowman et al are listening to me. But if they were, here's what I'd tell them:
1) Goaltending
In the cold, harsh reality of the post-season, I think it's fair to say that the Hawks probably don't have their Stanley Cup goaltender on the roster.
Now, let me also say this: I believe there is a guy on the roster who potentially could get hot and carry the Hawks through the playoffs next year, if the timing is right. And that's Cristobal Huet, not Nikolai Khabibulin.
I have always maintained, he's a hot or cold goaltender. Now, when you look at his aggregate stats over the last 3-4 seasons, he's also generally effective. He can be maddeningly bad for periods, but he can also be — as we saw in Game 5 versus the Red Wings, for stretches during the regular season and in leading the Capitals into the playoffs last year with an 11-2 record down the stretch — lights out.
Khabibulin is 37, injury prone, and while he's more consistent than Huet, he might also not have the great games or stretches of games in him that Huet appears to have. Someone will pay Khabibulin big dollars this offseason and for numerous reasons (salary cap, age, injuries and more), it shouldn't be the Hawks.
Now, all that said, behind Huet, the Hawks have two question marks. Corey Crawford and Antti Niemi. Personally, I think Crawford has NHL backup written all over him. Niemi is the wild card. Some in the Hawk organization love him. Athletic, super-quick and very unorthodox, he started out red-hot at Rockford then tailed off a bit. When he came up for a brief run with the Hawks, he flashed his talent a bit, but also looked a bit overwhelmed too.
SUGGESTION: The Hawks need to determine if Niemi can play 20-30 games next year and be a reliable, productive NHL goaltender. If they don't think he can, they should make a serious move for a veteran #2, preferably with some upside. Hawk fans who haven't should go look at the numbers former Hawk Craig Anderson has put up in Florida the last few years. The kid's always been talented. Looks like he's matured. And he's a bargain basement free agent. The Hawks also should consider trying to acquire higher end goalie prospects either through the draft or trade.
CAP IMPACT: Subtract Khabibulin's $6.75 million, add $1 million for Huet's back-up. Net impact, -$5.75 million.
DEFENSE:
Niklas Hjalmarsson has had a big impact on this picture. He will probably be in the Hawks' top 4 (most likely second pairing) for years. Question is, is he the right partner for Brian Campbell? In some ways, Hjalmarsson's steady, responsible play is a good complement to #51. I'm not sure, though, at this point, if he is physical enough to offset Campbell's game. Hjalmarsson might move down to the third pairing, probably a better place for him to develop, where he would most likely play with Brent Sopel. I believe that is a very good third pair.
Ideally, the perfect player to play with Campbell is smart, responsible, physical, mobile and has a right handed-shot. Like free agent Adrian Aucoin, or Rangers d-man Derek Morris. Some other free agents who might work here (though not righty shots) are Martin Skoula or Francois Beauchemin.
The odd-men out here would be Cam Barker and Matt Walker. Barker made $2.8 million as a 5-6 defenseman, and that can't happen going forward. If Barker stays, and I don't think he will past next year's trading deadline (if that long), it will be at a reduced salary. Walker is a fine #7 defenseman, but his lack of mobility (and Barker's) really showed at times versus the Wings. And the Wings are the team the Hawks must get by to reach the next level.
SUGGESTION: Let Walker and Barker go. Sign a solid veteran to play 2nd pair with Campbell. Though he is still a year or two away, 2008 draft pick Shawn Lalonde projects as a very good offensive defenseman.
NET IMPACT: Lose Walker and Barker, $3.5 million off the cap. Sign or trade for veteran d-man. + $3.5 million. Net impact: even. But the defense is really solid now.
FORWARDS:
First, the Hawks want to re-sign Sammy Pahlsson, and Pahlsson wants to be in Chicago. Count on him being back and centering the Hawks' third line next year. Pahlsson was both recovering from mono and hurt in the playoffs with a separated shoulder and Hawk fans have not really seen how effective he can be.
Dave Bolland is the #2 center next year and he will be re-signed this offseason to a deal in the $2-3 million per range.
After that, it starts to get tricky. The big question is Marty Havlat. Personally, I think the Hawks are a weaker team next year without him. Unless they found someone better to replace him. Easier said than done.
A couple of fallacies that have been floating through Blackhawk Nation need to be dispelled however. First, the notion that #24 should give the Hawks a "deal" to stay in Chicago (ostensibly so the Hawks can pay big dollars next year to Kane, Toews and Keith). Wrong. He shouldn't and he won't. Certainly, the Hawk brass would love this and Hawk fans would love this, but it's not likely.
Second, Jack Skille will not replace Havlat. Jack Skille probably couldn't replace Troy Brouwer or Ben Eager's contribution. Skille is, like Barker, very likely an ex-Blackhawk soon due to his salary needs and limited production.
There are a lot of ways to get Havlat back in the Indianhead next year, though: a longer term deal like Johan Franzen's in Detroit, or a one-year, bigger money deal.
But if he does leave, the Hawks have a gaping hole on their second line, and in terms of production in all three zones, not to mention big, big goals throughout the year at key times.
If another team does offer Havlat good money for an extended term and he does leave, one move the Hawks might seriously want to consider is making a run at perhaps a better player than Havlat, for a bigger money one year deal (which they can afford this season at least).
That player? Marian Hossa.
Without question, Pat Kane, Jonathan Toews and Duncan Keith are Hawks long-term and are going to get paid. A lot. To make that happen though, the Hawks are going to have to make hard decisions about some of their good, young second-tier forwards like Dustin Byfuglien, Kris Versteeg and Bolland (both this year). This is where the talent pipeline comes in. Two former high draft picks who look possibly ready to join the Hawks this year are Kyle Beach and Igor Makarov. Personally, I think the odd-man out here could be Versteeg. A great kid and a good talent, he is not as big or physical as the Hawks would like to be up front going forward. Beach and Makarov both are, and Makarov has the speed and skill to potentially replace Versteeg's contributions. And Versteeg's decision-making and selflessness have to be questioned after these playoffs. Bill Sweatt is another prospect whose speed and skill, in a couple of years, could potentially offset the loss of a Versteeg.
SUGGESTION: Get Havlat signed. If not, get Hossa for one year. Assess whether Beach and/or Makarov can stick in Chicago next year. Makarov might need to at least start the year in Rockford to facilitate the adjustment to smaller North American ice.
This is a first blush, and as events unfold, I will blog more on this. It is doubtful the Hawks will follow this prescription to the letter, if at all.
But like Detroit, the Hawks must from now on balance player loss with consistent player development. No system in hockey has produced more NHL talent the last couple of years and the Hawks' talent pipeline is a bit depleted, and, by some, overrated. Tallon must weed out overpaid/overvalued talent starting this offseason and try to get draft picks in return.
He must also retain the elite (Toews, Keith, Havlat) or eventually elite (Kane) players the Hawks now have, and keep a strong supporting cast (Seabrook, Byfuglien, Campbell, Ladd, Bolland). But hard decisions will need to be made, no doubt, starting very soon.
JJ
Chicago Blackhawks Blogger • 
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