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Setting the Table for Oilers vs Golden Knights

May 1, 2023, 6:07 PM ET [35 Comments]
Sean Maloughney
Edmonton Oilers Blogger • RSSArchiveCONTACT
For the first time ever the Edmonton Oilers will face off against the Vegas Golden Knights and we will get the McDavid vs Eichel matchup that was set up way back in 2015; albeit with Eichel on a different team. That is certainly one storyline to watch but there are many to follow in this series. This is going to be a great series that should look completely different than the one Edmonton just won against the LA Kings.

Vegas plays a completely different game than the LA Kings. The Kings kept to their systems to a fault, deploying the 1-3-1 against the Oilers and wanted to bring the game to as low event as possible while capitalizing on their opponents mistakes. The Golden Knights play a far faster game than the Kings. Expect them to be far more aggressive in attacking the Oilers in their own zone and trusting their defensive core to do the work in their own end.

Obviously this is a benefit and detriment for the Edmonton Oilers. Through the regular season we saw how effective the Oilers were at generating chances off of the rush. The Oilers best players, most notably McDavid, are likely going to have much more room to wheel and deal than they did against the Kings. On the flip side, that means the team will need to expect more chances coming the other way. The Oilers struggled the most against LA when they attacked them aggressively in their own zone and forced Edmonton to make turnovers and get caught flat footed.

Players like Vincent Desharnais, Cody Ceci, Evander Kane (with his current injuries), and Darnell Nurse may have a difficult time in this series if they aren't focused or try to do too much in their own end.

DEFENSE

Right now it seems likely that we will see the Pietrangelo and Martinez pairing go up against the McDavid line (whatever that will look like). That duo dominated the Jets and regardless of the line they went up against (played the most against the Dubois and Connor line). Pietrangelo is the best defenseman in the series and how the Oilers can perform against that top duo will greatly impact this series.

Things don't get much easier for Edmonton as Shea Theodore will be on the second pairing, potentially with Ben Hutton to start the series. Edmonton has two very good defensive pairings now in Nurse-Ceci and Ekholm-Bouchard but right now I would give Vegas the edge on the blueline. The one advantage Edmonton may have on the blueline is simply that they may be able to get more production from their side. Vegas' top scoring blueliner is Pietrangelo with 5 assists followed by Theodore with three assists. The Oilers leading defenseman is Bouchard with 2 goals and 10 points, followed by Ekholm with 4 assists.

FORWARDS

The two biggest stories for me in this series are the forward core and the goaltending. Starting with the forwards, the Golden Knights have three dominant duos. Eichel-Marchessault, Karlsson-Smith, and Stephenson-Stone. The Eichel-March line with Barbashev played the most minutes at 5 on 5 for Vegas against the Jets with Stone and Stephenson just a couple minutes underneath them. Stephenson and Stone in particular were just dominant any time they were on the ice. The two led Vegas in points in the first round with 8 apiece.

Woodcroft needs to go back to splitting up the McDavid and Draisaitl in this series for Edmonton to be successful. The Bjugstad-Hyman-RNH line worked good in Game 5 but were completely outclassed by the Kings in Game 6. Edmonton needs one of McDavid or Draisaitl to take on the Eichel line and the other to go against the Stephenson and Stone line. I would say put McDavid against Eichel and Draisaitl against Stone. That would leave the McLeod line (which was excellent throughout the first round) against Karlsson and Smith.

Edmonton had 10 players who scored at least one goal in the first round. Vegas had 8 though they did play one fewer games than the Oilers. It's going to be a close series and just like against the Kings, whoever gets the better depth scoring may be the team that wins it all.

GOALTENDING

Goaltending will be the other big story to follow. Stuart Skinner will be up against Laurent Brossoit who will be looking to continue his revenge tour against his former teams. Skinner finished the first round with a 3.43 GAA and a 0.890SV% while Brossoit had a 2.42 GAA and a 0.915SV%. On paper that is a huge advantage for the Golden Knights but I have a few pro Oilers thoughts.

First off, I went through the Golden Knights games and looked at the goals they scored. The Golden Knights were excellent at generating goals off of the rush as well as taking advantage of juicy rebounds from Hellebuyck with the Jets having awful rebound coverage in their own zone. The Kings scored most of their goals in two different situations; aggressive net-front presence and going high on Skinner on the powerplay. The latter the Knights certainly have the ability to perform but we didn't see as much of the former in their series against the Jets.

Here is my biggest wildcard. Sorry Winnipeg Jets fans but for the most part your team completely rolled over against the Golden Knights. Hellebuyck stood on his head in Game 1 to get the one victory and in Game 3 the Jets pressed hard for the comeback before coming up short but aside from that this was all Vegas. Winnipeg was dealing with some key injuries and we are now seeing some of the big issues that were going on in that dressing room. The most goals scored by a Jets player was Adam Lowry, followed by Kyle Connor with 3. Scheifele had 1 goal. Dubois had 2.

Will Laurent Brossoit look as good against the Oilers potent offensive weapons and their supporting cast who were excellent both at 5 on 5 and on the powerplay? If the answer is still yes than this will be a very tough series for the Oilers.

SPECIAL TEAMS

Quick last thought on Special Teams. The Oilers struggled mightily against the LA Kings powerplay. They allowed 7 goals on 21 attempts. That is a 66.7% PK kill which was the 12th worst after the first round. The Kings had the worst PK in the first round at 43.8%. The second worst PK? The Vegas Golden Knights at 58.3%.

Vegas also had the 12th worst powerplay after the first round at 18.8% while we all know the Oilers led with a ridiculous 56.3% on the powerplay. The next best in the first round was the Jets at 41.7%. I don't like bringing up regular season numbers in the post-season because of how different the games are but I think it's worth mentioning that the Jets had the 23rd worst PP in the NHL at 19.3%.

One more little tidbit of info. The Golden Knights and Oilers were tied with the second fewest PP opportunities in the first round with 16 each. The team that drew the fewest calls were the Winnipeg Jets.

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SUMMARY

This has the makings of a fantastic series to watch. The Edmonton Oilers have a clear advantage on special teams and have the top two players in the series as well as excellent forward and defensive depth.

On the other side the Golden Knights currently have the better goaltender but that could change depending on how Vegas is able to handle the Oilers offense. The Golden Knights do have a stronger defensive group overall and their own forward depth in no pushover.

Both teams are going to be trading chances and there is a good chance each game could be won by whichever goalie is able to make one more save. If the Oilers can match up against Vegas best at 5 on 5, and keep their PP going hot than they have a good chance at moving on to the Western Conference Finals once more.

Thanks for reading!
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