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Where Does The Cap Space Come From?

June 17, 2022, 2:09 PM ET [33 Comments]
Sean Maloughney
Edmonton Oilers Blogger • RSSArchiveCONTACT
As of right now, the Edmonton Oilers have 7.1 million dollars in cap space. That does not include the RFA's that need to be signed in Puljujarvi, Yamamoto, and McLeod, nor does that factor in Oscar Klefbom on LTIR as that is something you won't see the Oilers do until as close to the beginning of the season as possible in order to accrue the most value.

In my last blog, we went over the most crucial needs for this team moving forward. In short, a starting goaltender, Kane or his replacement in the top six, and depth in the bottom six and on defense. Signing the young RFA's AND addressing those needs with a grand total of 7.1 million seems nearly impossible. How can they do it?

Here are some of the options present for the Oilers in order to garner more cap space to make the needed moves. It's unlikely every option I present will happen or at the exact cap space but a number of options do exist.

TRADE/BUYOUT ZACK KASSIAN
In a shocking turn of events, the Zack Kassian deal that everyone thought was going to be bad turns out to be really bad. Kassian has two years remaining on his contract at 3.2 million. This season Kassian will make 3.5 million in actual salary while the following year he will make 2.3 million. With 6 goals and 19 points in 58 regular season games, Kassian remains a fine if highly overpaid bottom six player.

I think there are teams that would be interested in acquiring Kassian because of the perceived value of adding physical tough players to insulate skill guys. Teams like Anaheim after losing Deslaurier and the whole Zegras incident will be looking for toughness. Torts is back and in Philly? Toughness galore incoming. If Kassian had only one year remaining on his deal, I could see a number of teams being interested in taking a flyer on him. The issue is it is two more years. If Edmonton were to find a willing trade partner, they would likely need to retain at bare minimum 1 million in order to make a trade work.

The more likely option would be a buyout. Should the Oilers buyout Kassian, here would be the breakdown in cap savings:
22/23 - 2.53 million
23/24 - 1.33 million
24/25 - 2.23 million
25/26 - 2.23 million

Edmonton would get a nice bonus this coming season of 2.53 million, take a bit more of a hit in the final year of Kassian's would be contract, and then the following two years would only be on the hook for 966 thousand a year in dead space.

Buyouts suck. They are the tool of poor GM's who gave out bad contracts but in this case I do see it as a better alternative than keeping Kassian and his 3.2 million on the books. This season is the last year of the Andrej Sekera buyout which carries a cap hit of 1.5 million, as well as the last year of the 750,000 the Oilers are paying from the Lucic deal.

Whether it is by trade with cap space retained or through buyout, I don't expect Zack Kassian to be on the Oilers roster next season.

SMITH AND KEITH RETIREMENT

As previously mentioned, there is a chance that Edmonton's most veteran players in 40 year old netminder Mike Smith and 38 year old defenseman Duncan Keith will retire, clearing up their 2.2 and 5.5 million dollar cap hits respectfully. Reports are out that the Oilers have asked both players to clarify their intentions for whether they expect to play in the 2022/2023 season. If both players retired, that alone would free up 7.7 million in cap space, doubling the expected cap space the team currently has.

In addition, the Keith retiring according to the current CBA would mean that the Chicago Blackhawks would owe the Oilers 3.4 million in cap space due to the recapture penalty. For those who remember, the Canucks were in a similar position when Roberto Luongo retired from the Florida Panthers. There is some controversy right now with this ruling (shocking) as Bill Daly has now stated that if Keith was to retire, there would be no recapture penalty, even though no specific rule has changed.

In the past we have seen the Oilers get the short end of the stick with other rulings; giving up 2nd round picks for coaches and GMs and then had the rule change a couple months after the fact, giving up a 3rd round pick to the Flames even though Neal never hit the requirements of the original deal... if Keith does retire and the NHL rescinds the recapture rule it will just be one more on the pile. I don't think there is any conspiracy against the Oilers here but it's simply annoying to see how and when the NHL decides rules do and do not matter.

What if Keith and Smith do not retire but don't have the ability to play? Well both players could be placed on LTIR, again freeing up a large amount of space but not until right before the season starts. It would do little to help the team in their off-season moves but could give them great flexibility approaching the trade deadline.

The third, more aggressive option I don't expect the team to take... send both players down to the minors, or more specifically, threaten to send them to the minors if they choose to not retire. At 38 and 40 respectively, Keith and Smith probably don't have any desire to spend their last year of hockey playing in Bakersfield. This method would be far more aggressive than anything I expect from Holland, plus it would also be considered pretty bad faith and could cause others around the league to be wary of signing in Edmonton. This is the least likely outcome but I wanted to bring it up.

TRADES FOR FOEGELE AND BARRIE

Tyson Barrie has two years remaining on his deal at 4.5 million. He was the Oilers main PP quarterback on the backend all season and in 73 games put up 7 goals and 41 points. Warren Foegele has two years remaining on his deal at 2.75 million. He spent most of the season on the Oilers third line, with next to no PP time and still put up 12 goals and 26 points in 82 games. Both players are useful, impact players but are taking up a good chunk of cap space and their skillsets are replicated by younger and more inexpensive players.

For Tyson Barrie, his skillset is replicated by Evan Bouchard. Bouchard has one more year remaining on his own ELC and went 12-31-43 in 81 games this season. 10 of his goals were at even strength. In the little bit of top unit powerplay time Bouchard received, he was good enough at distributing the puck but his calling card, his high speed shot was great at finding ways to the net, even in traffic.

Warren Foegele meanwhile was an effective bottom six player but as the playoffs continued, eventually found himself on the fourth line... a less than ideal spot for a 2.75 million dollar winger. We don't have any guarantees but it does seem like a decent bet that Dylan Holloway will make the Oilers out of camp and likely take that third line winger position, or play in the top six, pushing someone like Hyman or RNH down onto the third line wing.

Foegele and Barrie are good players and there will be teams around the league that will trade for them, either in player for player deals or for picks. Let's use the Kraken as an example. Seattle is in need of adding offense to their lineup and could offer a second round pick for Barrie, or trade someone like Carson Soucy for him. The first trade opens up 4.5 million for the Oilers while the second provides some relief while at the same time adding a player with a different skillset to the lineup.

TRADING THE KLEFBOM CONTRACT

Oscar Klefbom is sadly probably not going to suit up for another NHL game. The now 28 year old defender suffers from arthritis and is reportedly only now starting to have the ability to live a normal life, let alone play professional sports. Klefbom and his 4.16 million dollar cap hit will be placed on LTIR before the season starts but that does little to help the team in free agency. The alternative could be trading Klefbom to another team that wants to hit the cap floor or have cap flexibility, similar to what Vegas just did the the Shea Weber deal.

Klefbom is different than Weber however. While Weber carries a 7.8 million dollar cap-hit, the player costs the team 3 million in actual dollars this season, but only one million a year for the following three years. Klefbom meanwhile costs 5.17 million in actual salary for his deal.

A team like Arizona wants contracts to make it to the cap floor but they also want to limit the number of actual dollars they spend as well. Paying Klefbom 5.17 million to give them 4.17 million in cap hit just doesn't make much sense.

These are the biggest ways the Oilers can relieve themselves of cap and I could see at least a few of these happening (Smith retiring, Barrie and Foegele trades, Kassian buyout are my guesses). With these moves the team could free up close to an addition 10-11 million in cap space. All of these names are players to keep an eye on as we approach the draft and the beginning of free agency.
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