The Buffalo Sabres will get their pick of the litter in the 2021 NHL Entry Draft after the lottery balls fell their way Wednesday night at the NHL Draft Lottery. Whomever General Manager Kevyn Adams selects first overall will join Rasmus Dahlin as the second first overall pick in a four-year span. Assuming the Sabres retain the pick, it will be the Sabres’ ninth top-10 selection in a row during a stretch of franchise history that could best be called “brutal.” Adams said in his post-lottery press conference that he has a simple philosophy toward improving the team via the 1st overall pick:

“Best player available, certainly” Adams said. “We need to improve in every area so we’re certainly not going to focus on a position of need.”

The Sabres figure to have a massive decision to make as there is no clear-cut prospect atop the draft board as there often is. They will have their choice of defenseman Owen Power, center Matthew “Matty” Beniers, left wing William Eklund, right wing Dylan Guenther and defenseman Luke Hughes, among others.

The Sabres should be ecstatic of course to have the opportunity to chart their own destiny and pick whichever player they view as the best of the draft. The COVID-19 pandemic definitely complicates their pick, though, as many Canadian major junior league teams had severely limited seasons or outright cancellations as a result of the outbreak: The Western Hockey League (WHL) canceled their playoffs and the Ontario Hockey League (OHL) did not have a season. In American college hockey, the ivy league schools all cancelled their seasons and various other teams such as UMass Lowell and Providence had individual game cancellations. All of these leagues are feeder systems for the NHL and the players’ inability to showcase their talent severely hampers the ability of NHL teams to evaluate talent.

61 OHL players made the NHL Central Scouting Draft Rankings this year despite the season cancelation. That truly highlights what a difficult task the Sabres have in front of them. They not only have to decide which of the players who played were the best, but they also have to navigate the complexity of the cancelations. Many of the players from the OHL went and competed in European leagues which means that scouts had to make a sort of conversion between the two leagues. Adams seemed optimistic that his team is as ready as any other to make the best of that situation.

“In terms of difficulty, every team is in the exact same boat,” Adams said.

Not so fast.

The team’s ability to competently navigate this already tricky landscape is further complicated by the massive organizational overhaul following the 2020 season which saw ownership trim the ranks of the scouting staff following the departure of then-GM Jason Botterill. Below is a list of teams and the total number of personnel in each organization who have the word “scout” or “scouting” in their title. The information is pulled directly from official team websites:

Vancouver Canucks: 21
Philadelphia Flyers: 16
Arizona Coyotes: 12
Boston Bruins: 17
Tampa Bay Lightning: 19
Toronto Maple Leafs: 19
Buffalo Sabres: 9

So the Sabres are not in the exact same boat as every other team. That’s right; the Sabres have fewer scouts than the Arizona Coyotes, according to the official NHL websites. To quote Pete Campbell from Mad Men: “Not great, Bob!” While Adams has made some hires to replace the scouts lost in the 2020 summer purge, one major question remains:

Do the Sabres have the scouting personnel in place to make the best decision possible?

It’s an impossible question to answer currently, and one that quite possibly won’t be answered for years after the NHL draft on July 23rd. Prospects take time to develop and the dividends from a pick can take years to appear, even among players selected in the top-10.

But enough of the doom and gloom. The lottery does provide an outlet for hope and Adams certainly echoed that sentiment post-lottery.

“It can change the course of your franchise,” Adams said. We’re excited about that.”

As well they should be. To bolster their decision-making process, in April, the Sabres added a knowledgeable hockey mind in form of Associate General Manager Jason Karmanos which should help Adams to navigate the difficult decisions ahead. It’s also important to remember that first overall picks are historically productive players who go onto long and distinguished careers. While acknowledging that this draft year in particular poses challenges not seen in the recent past, here is a list of 1st overall picks going back 20 years:

Alexis Lafreniere
Jack Hughes
Rasmus Dahlin
Nico Hischier
Auston Matthews
Connor McDavid
Aaron Ekblad
Nathan MacKinnon
Nail Yakapov
Ryan Nugent-Hopkins
Taylor Hall
John Tavares
Steven Stamkos
Patrick Kane
Erik Johnson
Sidney Crosby
Alex Ovechkin
Marc-Andre Fleury
Rick Nash
Ilya Kovalchuk

The overwhelming majority of those players are/were very good players. The Sabres figure to acquire a useful player at the top of the draft despite the uncertainty. In the days and weeks to come, we’ll explore the prospects at the top of the draft as well as some potentially fun trade scenarios. Adams certainly thinks he’ll be taking some calls on that pick.

“I assume my phone will be pretty busy,” Adams said.

Sabres fans will be busy running through the various scenarios as well. The darkness of the past 10 years tends to break a little bit on a day like today. That’s a good thing. Now the Sabres have to get it right.

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