Thursday Plays - 3 plays!!!
Last night 1-3 -3.49 Units
YTD 171-154-3 +25.39 Units
Well last night I totally forgot to post the Winnipeg Jets as one of my system plays but I didn’t include it in my record because I didn’t post it in my article. I realized it when I checked my online account lol! Apologies as I had talked about how having Matt Murray start his first game in goal in over a month would be a tough hill to climb!
So you are the SJ Sharks and you have a 5 game homestand while fighting for the 4th and final playoff spot in the West Division. You are training by four points and you lose back to back games at home to Anaheim. To add to the madness, you lose all 4 to your in-state rivals in the Ducks and the Kings! Sharks have no business making the playoffs playing that bad at home!
Then there is the Calgary Flames who have suddenly started to play like we thought they would under Sutter! Three wins a row and now they are only 4 points behind Montreal for the final playoff spot in the North Division. They play at Montreal again tomorrow night, then they play at home to Ottawa who have had their number unexpectedly this season. They travel to Vancouver to play a team that was ravaged by covid, only to return home to play a 3 game homestand against none other than the Montreal Canadiens! Lookout folks!!!!
We got 9 games tonight with Jets/Leafs, Nashville/Carolina and Florida/TB highlighting the card! Many other teams in beyond must win situations to stay in the playoff hunt. Make sure you check out my gamenotes below that contains a lot of pertinent info when playing these games tonight.
**I have started to research teams that come off at least a 5 game road trip and how they fare in their first game back home.** Its 8-7 to date.
Scenario #1 – Teams that are rested, either sitting at home or on the road while their opponent plays the night before. 19-8 over the last month of tracking it! The under is 16-10-1 in these spots. Play Toronto tonight as they are rested waiting on Winnipeg.
Scenario #2 – Teams that are playing each other in back to back games, in which the home team loses the first game, the record of the home team in the second game is 73-49.
Scenario #3 – Teams playing back to back road games on consecutive nights tend to go under the total in the 2nd game. So far that trend is 34-24-2 when teams play on the road back to back nights.
Scenario #4 - One last angle I am tracking that is slightly profitable and similar to Scenario #1, is when any team loses the first game of a back to back against the same team, regardless if it’s on the road or at home, those teams are 95-68 in that situation.
Quick stat updates -
First period totals going over were 3-3 last night and are 312-342 on the season.
Road teams were 5-1 last night and are 312-334 on the season.
Game totals going over the total were 3-3 last night and are 304-317-24 on the season.
Gamenotes for tonight –
NJ/NYR – 2nd game of 4 straight head to head. NJ won the first 2 in this series early in the season, but NYR have won the last 3 head to head.
Sabres/Caps – Sabres have played better hockey of late and have the Caps all they could handle last game out. Caps have won 6 of 7 head to head this season. Caps have had their last 4 straight go over the total.
Preds/Canes – Nashville is +165 tonight while the Canes just lost 2 straight at home to Detroit. Carolina plays their next 2 games at TB after this 2 games series against Nashville! Canes have won all 4 head to head meetings this season. Preds have won 11 of their last 13 games!!! Canes are 6-6 in their last 12 games!!!
Florida/TB – Florida playing their 5th straight road game tonight. TB is 4-6 in their last 10 and are coming off a 4 game roadie. TB gets Florida and Nashville in their 4 games, lets see how they respond. All 4 games have gone over the total with Florida/TB this season, they split the 4 games head to head.
Philly/Pitt – Pens off 6 game roadie but have had 4 days off, they went 4-2 on the roadie and went over the total in their last 5 games. Philly/Pitt have played 5 games head to head this season, all 5 have gone over the total. Philly has won 3 of 5 but Pitt has won 2 of their 3 homes against Philly.
NYI/Boston – NYI are a very average on the road. NYI last 5 games have gone under the total, all at home. Bruins are so banged up on defense. NYI has won all 5 games head to head this season, but 4 of those came at home, the lone game in Boston, Isles won 4-3 in OT.
Jets/Leafs – Winnipeg plays 17 of their 22 games on the road, watch for some fatigue with this group. Play Scenario #1. Leafs have won 4 of 6 head to head this season. Toronto on a 2 game losing streak after winning 6 in a row. Matthews out tonight for the Leafs.
Chicago/Detroit – Hawks have 5 of 6 head to head this season but Detroit is a different team at home!
Jackets/Stars – Columbus has lost 6 of their last 7 games. They have split the 6 games head to head this season.
All system plays for 1 Unit each tonight –
Toronto – ML(-153)
Non-system plays for 1 Unit each tonight –
NYR – ML(-215)
Preds – ML(+165)
Good luck tonight!