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Svechnikov cleared waivers, and the bizarre trade market continues to swirl. A “normal” year would have seen Gostisbehere, Ennis and possibly Svechnikov picked up. Things are jammed up in strange ways right now. I haven’t done an update on league financials yet (this season has been just nonstop games) but I’ll reiterate that it’s not good. The new ESPN “deal” has a low end of 220 million (up to around 400 million). That should jump off the page. TV and sponsorship have to make up 50% of league revenues based on the current model of 5 billion. The gap in estimated revenue tells me that this is subscription based. Remember, Disney owns ESPN now. They’re moving EVERYTHING to Disney+. Why should that concern us? Well, Disney plus with ESPN is somewhere around $20 per month. If they garner enough of the streaming rights in the next few years, the NHL app and Center Ice can’t compete. That means even less revenue overall. The total on TV deals (Canadian and US) needs to be close to 2 billion. Losing NBC for this new ESPN deal is not a good sign revenue-wise.
I’ll do more on that coming up, but here’s how it affects the market. We’re looking at, not just a flat cap, but increased internal caps. With a net zero on gate revenues (some stadiums are letting people in, but the major markets are at zero or very reduced) and reduced advertising, the total deficit is going to be near the highest ever revenue point, 5 billion. What comprises the “debt” is primarily player salary. Last season was a 1.5 billion dollar shortfall (shortened season but guaranteed contracts). The summer saw an additional shortfall around half a billion (possibly more). This year’s shortfall will be approaching 3 billion. The argument I hear is, “owners are rich, they can handle it, etc”. The top 5 teams can, to a degree, continue to absorb. (Toronto, Montreal, Rangers, Bruins, Blackhawks). But, the bottom 15 teams have a net worth not much above the yearly operating expense. Teams are already looking at slashing budgets for next year in whatever way they can. It looks like the trade and waiver markets are frozen in response. There will be movement, but with just over a week left it’s really slow.
Whilst you chew on the league’s financial gristle (and my hate mail inbox starts to pile up again), let’s raise a glass to Greiss. He stopped 27 of 29 shots, posting a .931 Sv% and still can’t get a win. In fact, Erne was the lone goal (and it was an impressive feat) and he has now beaten his previous career high (and has 6 more goals than Taylor Hall...). If there were a league equivalent of an annulment, Greiss would be granted it immediately (and be compensated for pain and suffering).
Before the season, we talked a lot about players who want to be here. Players who embrace the challenge and face it night in and night out. Greiss has taken a beating and is posting a 3.39 GAA. Still .61 less than what Howard put up last year. He’s giving the team a chance many nights, just getting 1.5 goals for isn’t going to cut it. Tomorrow, if Pickard starts and the boys in red put up 3 or 4 goals, we need to get a sympathy basket for the hard working German netminder.
We have three more contests against Tampa Bay. I’ve begun calling Florida “The Peninsula of Pain”, and resisted adding another P word relating to the state’s shape (not worth being fired for). Seeing TB and the Panthers 8 times in one season is akin to a colonoscopy prep. No matter how bad you think it’s going to be, nothing quite prepares you for the reality. It is impressive that Detroit has had 1 win against Tampa (I’d had this series as a sweep for the Lightning). Today’s contest showed some guts, but a couple bad minutes in the first were too much to overcome. Only 17 more games to put this season to bed.
The honest question I have, can Erne be a perennial 10 goal (ish) scorer? He’s an RFA again, and a fourth line guy that can pitch in is nice to have around. Let me know where you land on that, and let me know how you think tomorrow will go. I’ll see you in the post game.
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