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The Calgary Flames and Winnipeg Jets aren’t slated to square off until the end of next month. Even so, there isn’t much else to discuss in the hockey world right now.
Given as much, I wanted to highlight a few things worth watching when the two teams do meet up (health permitting):
• Calgary’s top line hasn’t had the same flare this season and it goes much beyond raw production. Sean Monahan, in particular, has gone missing in action for extended periods and really limited what Johnny Gaudreau and Elias Lindholm can create offensively. I think a break to reset could do Monahan, and the line as a whole, some good.
I also think facing the Jets will. Winnipeg generally likes to use Mark Scheifele’s line against the best players of opposing teams. I expect no different when they are the ‘home team’ in this series.
That could very well be just what the doctor ordered for Calgary’s top trio. Why? Winnipeg’s top line is a train-wreck defensively. At least it has been this season.
WPG1 generally features two of Scheifele, Kyle Connor and Patrik Laine – sometimes all three – and they have gotten crushed in their own zone all year. Don’t believe me? Consider this. Of 269 eligible forwards, Laine, Scheifele, and Kyle Connor hold the bottom-3 slots in terms of high-danger chances against per 60. Put another way, no forward (650+ minutes) in the league has given up Grade A looks at a higher clip than any of those three.
I think Calgary’s top trio, if they remain together, could do some damage.
• One player I’ll be keeping a close eye on is Travis Hamonic. I don’t know if it is injuries, wear and tear (he plays a physical style and will soon be on the wrong side of 30), steady minutes with Noah Hanifin, or a combination of the three, but Hamonic played very poorly for much of the season.
That needs to change because, Connor Hellebuyck aside, Winnipeg’s biggest strength is an abundance of elite offensive players in the top-6. There is no hiding Hamonic. If he’s in the top-4 – as always – he is going to face stiff competition. He needs to be much better.
Not just for the Flames’ chances of winning, but for his own of getting a big payday in the off-season. A robust style of play that lends itself to a lot of injuries, coupled with a full year of underwhelming hockey, could sour potential suitors.
• I think Matthew Tkachuk’s penalty drawing ability might very well be the X factor against Winnipeg. The Jets don’t take many penalties, and they have elite goaltending, which allows them to consistently keep goals against numbers down despite underwhelming 5v5 defense.
It could be a much different story if they start parading to the box. That was a common theme for the Jets in recent years and a good chunk of their current roster remains intact. The potential for overly aggressive and undisciplined explosions is still in there. If anybody can bring it back to light, it is Tkachuk.
numbers via naturalstattrick.com
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