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Sami Vatanen trade looking like a steal...
Many people were disappointed by interim GM Tom Fitzgerald’s work on the Sami Vatanen trade. I was not part of that group.
I defended the move as perfectly reasonable when it was made and things are only looking better for the New Jersey Devils as time passes.
Vatanen still hasn’t suited up once for the Carolina Hurricanes. The chances of playing a chunk of games for them are quickly dwindling as they have just 17 regular season dates remaining – and Vatanen isn’t close to returning.
Making matters worse for the Hurricanes is they’re three points out of the playoffs. Though they have games in hand on their competition,
Dom Luszczyszyn of The Athletic gives them a 56% chance of making the dance. Hardly a lock.
Missing the playoffs is a real possibility, and the Hurricanes are likely bowing out in the 1st round to Boston (or the Metro winners) even if they do make it.
They’re probably not going to get a whole lot out of Vatanen, which makes landing Janne Kuokkanen such a coup.
Kuokkanen is not an A-level piece. I don’t want to give off the impression that he is. But Kuokkanen is a legitimately solid prospect with a real chance of becoming an NHL regular.
The puck skills are there, the hockey sense is there, and the production is there. At 21 years of age he has 46 points in 55 games. That’s impressive. A ton of his points are primaries, too.
Kuokannen ranks 4th in his age group in even-strength primary points. He leads all forwards in primary points on the power play, and sits 2nd only to Drake Batherson – a key member of a powerhouse Belleville team – in total primary points.
Again, there’s a real chance he ends up a regular for the Devils. If that happens, and all the Hurricanes get is 10-15 games of Vatanen (even that might be a stretch at this point), this will look like another win for Fitzgerald.
1st round pick watch
The Devils own a high pick in the 1st round. That much we know.
What’s unclear is *if* they’ll draft again in the top-31 this year, and where said pick(s) might fall.
They landed a pair of 1st rounders in the Taylor Hall and Blake Coleman trades. There are conditions attached, though.
New Jersey gets Arizona’s 1st this year so long as it’s not a top-3 selection. That can only happen if they miss the playoffs and win the lottery.
The Devils are hoping the Coyotes miss the playoffs, thus making the pick higher, but at the same time don’t want them to win the lottery and defer the 1st to 2021.
As it stands the Coyotes have a 56% chance of missing the playoffs. That’s good. Should they finish where they are now, there is an 11.4% chance of winning a lottery pick. So, as it stands, the odds of the Devils getting the pick are nearly 90%.
The status of the Canucks’ 1st is much more up in the air. It’s only coughed up this year if the Canucks make the playoffs. They’re sliding fast sans Jacob Markstrom and their chances of getting in are now down to 44% as a result.
Getting the pick next year, and having two 1sts in each of the next two drafts, is far from the end of the world. An unprotected 1st is always nice to have in your back pocket. I don't know that it'd be positioned any better than this year's, though.
The Canucks have the money to keep Markstrom (or find a serviceable replacement) and perhaps even Tyler Toffoli. Health permitting, I’m probably betting on a team with Elias Pettersson, Quinn Hughes, Brock Boeser, J.T. Miller, Bo Horvat and Markstrom/Toffoli getting to the playoffs.
Anything can happen, of course, but I think the Devils might be better served getting the pick this year – especially if Vancouver draws Vegas or St. Louis/Colorado and exits in the 1st round.
We’ll see if they can squeak in.
numbers via TheAthletic.com, Pick224.com, and Tankathon.com.
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