I think it’s fair to say Danton Heinen is a bit of an enigma. His 2019-20 season to date certainly has been.
In 52 games entering Wednesday, Heinen has seven goals and 14 assists for 21 points. A far cry from the 16 goals, 31 assists and 47 points he put up in 77 games as a rookie during the 2017-18 season.
Offense has never really been the bread and butter of Heinen’s game; that goes to the defensive side of things where Heinen remains as one of the Bruins best defensive forwards.
But being reliable in your own zone as a forward doesn’t always punch you a ticket to the lineup card as we’ve seen over the last two weeks.
Heinen was a healthy scratch for wins over the Minnesota Wild, Vancouver Canucks, Chicago Blackhawks and Arizona Coyotes earlier this month.
Heinen was reinserted back into the lineup Sunday afternoon by head coach Bruce Cassidy and wouldn’t you know it, Heinen and the Bruins fell to the Red Wings in Detroit, snapping their six-game win streak.
So what gives?
“I thought Heinen was okay, worked hard on the puck, had a few looks. Obviously when you go back through it you can find out more about the puck battles, get a closer look,” Cassidy said Sunday. “[He] managed the puck well enough. So I thought his return to the lineup was good and hopefully it’s a start for him.”
When you look at Heinen’s game from a defensive standpoint—again, his bread and butter—he’s right on par with where he was last year.
As you can see from
Micah Blake McCurdy’s chart on Hockey Viz, teams had a hard time generating shots from high-danger scoring areas last season when Heinen was on the ice.
With 25 games left in the 2019-20 regular season, it’s been much of the same defensively from Heinen.
When you take a deeper dive into the advanced statistics of Heinen you find that in the 2018-19 season teams were scoring 1.31 goals-against per 60 minutes of five-on-five ice time with Heinen on the ice
according to Natural Stat Trick.
The 1.31 GA/60 clip was the lowest in all of the National Hockey League last year among skaters with at least 1000 minutes of time on ice.
Browsing over the GA/60 advanced stats for this season will show you that Heinen is still getting the job done defensively as teams are averaging 1.28 GA/60 of 5v5 ice time. That puts Heinen at the 6th lowest GA/60 among skaters with at least 500 minutes of 5v5 time on ice.
As encouraging as his stats are defensively, it’s the offensive side of things where Heinen’s game has dipped. Even though his 21 points ties him with Charlie McAvoy for 8th on the team in scoring, Heinen is failing to generate the type of buzz he did a season ago.
Using two more charts from Hockey Viz, you can see that in 2018-19, Heinen was doing a good job of getting to areas of the ice that typically translate to success offensively.
So far in 2019-20, that has not been the case.
The drop in shots from just outside the crease is a bit alarming for Heinen. It's clear his inability to get himself to the dirty areas and get shots off is the driving force behind his offensive struggles.
Diving back into the numerous available stats that Natural Stat Trick has to offer, last season with Heinen on the ice 5v5, the Bruins would average 9.3 high-danger scoring chances per 60 minutes of play. That clip ranked 318th among skaters with at least 900 minutes of 5v5 ice time.
This season the Bruins are averaging 8.18 high-danger scoring chances per 60 minutes of play with Heinen on the ice. That clip ranks 361st among skaters with 600 minutes of 5v5 ice time.
So where do the Bruins go from here with Heinen?
Unless Heinen can increase the offensive input, or even ramp up the danger he causes in the offensive zone, he may be watching more games from the press box as the regular season winds down and the Bruins inch closer to the playoffs.
Part of this is stems from Heinen’s play, while some stems from internal competition simply outplaying the 24-year old.
Since returning from a leg injury last month, Karson Kuhlman has been a bright spot for the Bruins with five points in nine games since his return.
Kuhlman has benefited from playing top-six minutes alongside Jake DeBrusk and David Krejci. It’s a role Heinen was given plenty of opportunities to secure.
In 89 minutes of 5v5 ice time together, DeBrusk, Krejci and Kuhlman have done a nice job of creating danger in the offensive zone, despite just one 5v5 goal. Together 5v5, the trio has an expected goals for of 3.7 while generating 42 scoring chances with 18 of them coming as high-danger opportunities.
When you look at the big picture, the third line has always been the best fit for Heinen. He’s produced the most success while playing on a line with Charlie Coyle and Anders Bjork.
But with Heinen out of the lineup for those four games to begin Februray, Sean Kuraly has been bumped up to the third line with Coyle and Bjork where the line has found instant success.
“It’s been feeling pretty good, I think me and Bjorkie [Bjork] have been together for a little bit, we’ve gotten to know each other and we talk a lot,” Coyle said Sunday of the chemistry between his line “Sean’s a pretty easy guy to read off of, he’s a pretty straight line guy. He’s got the speed too, I like playing with those guys who can go like that, and he works. He’s just a dog out there.”
In 53:07 of 5v5 ice time together, Kuraly, Coyle and Bjork have four 5v5 goals, with half of their scoring chances (24) being from high-danger (12) areas.
With the NHL trade deadline just over a week away and the Bruins being linked to several forwards, competition for playing time could become more difficult for Heinen.
Starting Wednesday night against the Canadiens, the Bruins have six games before the trade deadline. Expect Heinen to make the most of any ice time he is given.
His spot in the lineup depends on it.
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