The offensive numbers are ghastly. The Lightning won Tuesday night’s game 4-2, but they posted a season-worst 0.76 expected goals rate and one high-danger chance. PDO is a nice gauge of puck luck, and the Lightning finished with their second highest percentage of the season. If it were not for a stupendous effort from Andrei Vasilevskiy and some timely goals by the top-six forwards, the Bolts would have comfortably lost to Vegas.

And yet, it wasn’t all bad. The Golden Knights are 4/1 to advance out of the West, per Vegas Insider, which is tied for the best odds in that conference. They have outstanding underlying metrics and their speed and physicality make them an extremely difficult opponent. So the win was a good notch in Tampa Bay’s belt, and I’ll start with the good news before diving into the bad.

The top six exceling outside the rush against a Cup contender
The Lightning know opponents will try to eliminate their speed and passing through the neutral zone in the postseason. But the Lightning have improved their scoring versatility and it was on display last night.

On the Brayden Point goal, Steven Stamkos was forced into a dump-in, thereby initiating the forecheck. Pressure from Point saw Nate Schmidt quickly move the puck to Paul Stasny, who was stationed as the outlet. But the pass from Schmidt handcuffed Stasny, and with Nikita Kucherov accelerating toward him, Stasny whacked a backhand up the boards with the intention that it would carom to Reilly Smith. Unfortunately for the Golden Knights, the puck went to their opponent.

Erik Cernak hammered the puck at the net, but his shot was blocked. This is where a turnover goes from being harmless to potent. Once the shot attempt was denied by Smith, Kucherov was in position to scoop up the loose puck and guide it to Point, who was also stationed above the circles.



With two forwards high, the Lightning were able to support Cernak when he collected the turnover and exploit the out-of-position Vegas forwards. If Smith had forced a turnover off the blocked shot, Point and Kucherov would have been able to apply back pressure. But since there was a fortuitous bounce for Tampa Bay, they were able to seize on what amounted to a four-on-three as the Vegas forwards sailed out of the zone.

On the Stamkos goal, Victor Hedman led the entry on a very deliberate rush. Funneled to the perimeter, Hedman could only muster a shot attempt from the goal line in the right corner. But the Lightning turned a shot from a non-scoring area into a goal because of how the forwards reacted. Marc-Andre Fleury used his blocker to shoo the puck away from the net toward two Vegas forwards. But Kucherov, who was positioned as the F3, stepped up and stanched the counterattack, stealing the puck away from Vegas and once again steering it toward Point.

When the puck was swatted toward the slot, Point skated toward it to support Kucherov, and after claiming possession, Point immediately swung around and heaved a shot on net. It just so happened that Stamkos was still hovering around the crease, so he was able to dash to the front and deflect the shot past Fleury.



It is exciting to see Point, Stamkos, and Kucherov forcing turnovers on breakouts, especially in the area above the circles. A Bolts’ takeaway instead of a clean zone exit scrambles the opponent’s defense, opening up passing and shooting lanes.

This type of play is also an implicit acknowledgement of the power of the shot to create, sometimes even more than the pass. Instead of Point waiting a beat for Stamkos to open up for a one-timer or tip below the circle, he didn’t waste a second before he slung the puck at the net. On the first goal, instead of Point inching closer with the puck, he shot into the screen. The Tyler Johnson goal from the other top-six line had its genesis when Ondrej Palat met Kevin Shattenkirk above the circles and shot at Anthony Cirelli for the high tip. For a team that last year could be guilty of trying to look for the perfect pass or shot, last night’s play provided a refreshing rejection of that mentality.

The breakout was abysmal
The Lightning are the favorites to win the Cup per Vegas Insider. They have 6/1 odds; the second best odds are three teams with 8/1. There is recognition of how well Tampa Bay is playing, and how hot Vasilevskiy is at the moment. But last night also sketched out how things could go horribly wrong.

If the forward skill is mostly concentrated in the first two lines, then the pressure is on the breakout to be smooth with the high-end talent. Last night it was not. Vegas outshot the top-six at 5v5 13 to 7. There were turnovers galore as Vegas forced ill-advised passes from the Bolts’ defensemen, who would impulsively send the puck up the boards despite there only being a Vegas forward there. Also, the Lightning forwards committed far too many giveaways through the middle of the ice. The defensive corps needs help from the forwards, which may require them sinking lower or using indirect area passes to them to exit the zone. What was clear is that the Lightning were rattled by Vegas’s speed, and that led to a bevy of counterattacks and chances off the forecheck.

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