The State of the Rangers. Part III - The Goalies. Please see
here for Part I, the Forwards and
here for Part II - The Defenseman.
As said in the first blog, I don't intend this to be a deep dive into every player and every position, but more a high level view as to where the team stands at forward, defense and goalie. Those in the minors, college or playing overseas, for the most part, have been ignored, so Vitali Kravtsov, Lias Andersson, Morgan Barron, Karl Henriksson, Joey Keane, K'Andre Miller, Zac Jones, Tyler Wall, Olaf Lindblom etc. are not specifically covered. But they may be mentioned if their possible spot on the team impacts others. The purpose is to provide my view as to which players will definitely be here after the trade deadline and potentially next season, which players are more certainly gone in either case and which ones fall into that grey area; the latter being the most interesting and likely driving the most debate. To make this interesting, i want your views, in general or for each player.
Definitely here:
Henrik Lundqvist and Igor Shesterkin
Lundqvist is signed for one more season at $8.5 million. Speculation is rampant, as it has been the last two seasons, that maybe Lundqvist waives his NMC and accepts a deal. If not, maybe he acquiesces to move after the season or possibly retires. All of those are possibilities, though I believe – as I think many as you do – that Lundqvist be a part of this team the balance of the season and next year as well.
His game has clearly declined, which is not surprising given his age. But if you look at his advanced metrics – cognizant that this is not a popular option on the blog – he still is playing at a relatively elite level in terms of goals allowed compared to expected based on the number of high-danger shots allowed by this team. End results though are all that matters, which is a point Lundqvist has made as well.
The three-headed goalie system hasn’t aided Lundqvist, who is a create of habit and used to thrive with more work. He has played one game since January 2, and with the break, Lundqvist will go at least 20 days between games and see two games basically in January. Even before Shesterkin was promoted, Alexandar Georgiev was carving out additional playing time, relegating Lundqvist to the bench.
Why is he is on this side of the ledger? Because I think the likelihood of Lundqvist accepting the deal is remote. In addition, the probability of Hank being on this team next season is fairly high. That said, I could very see adding him to the maybe list, since if he continues to struggle, Lundqvist is a proud player and could potentially walk away on his own. One argument in that favor, thanks to jimbo for pointing this out, is that Lundqvist is only making $4.5 million in base salary after his $1 million dollar July 1st signing bonus. New York could keep him on the books to give him his bonus and then he resigns to be an ambassador for the team, allowing him to recoup some of the funds lost.
Shesterkin, the heir apparent to Lundqvist since he was drafted in the fourth round, 118 overall, in 2014, posted a minuscule 1.11 goals-against average along with a .953 save percentage in 28 games last season in the KHL. He built on that success, dominating the AHL, notching a 15-4-3 record with a .932 save percentage and 1.93 goals-against average. That success earned him a promotion earlier this month and he didn’t disappoint, winning his first two starts.
He was an AHL All-Star but didn’t play in the game despite getting sent to get work during the NHL All-Star break and Rangers’ bye week. Shesterkin showed excellent puck-moving ability as a goalie along with strong rebound control. He snaps at the puck when catching the puck and teams seem to be going high to test his glove hand.
Shesterkin lost his last game before he was sent down but little in his brief stint to dispel the notion that he is Next between the pipes. Armed with an opt-out clause to go back to the KHL, Shesterkin has some leverage, which is another reason why he is likely to be here next season and beyond. How the playing time is allocated the balance of the season will be a challenge for coach David Quinn and goaltending coach Benoit Allaire.
Definitely gone:
Some might list Georgiev here, I am not going there, as I will explain below. The Rangers could keep all three netminders, despite the difficulty that may create. But I understand how many feel that’s an untoward and unmanageable situation.
Might stay, might go:
Georgiev may be even more polarizing that Lundqvist. Questions of if he should stay or go, have dominated the year. Operating on an ELC, Georgiev is likely due a significant raise, potentially in the $3 million or so raise. That rise coupled with the presence of Lundqvist and Shesterkin along with the cap constraints and possibility to bring in a significant asset are all reasons to deal Georgiev, a view espoused by Larry Brooks this past week.
If general manager Jeff Gorton can stoke a bidding war for the 23-year-old pending restricted free agent with arbitration rights, if the Blueshirts could get a no-doubt top-nine winger with potential top-six upside, this would be the time to strike
The situation has not been ideal since Igor Shesterkin’s Jan. 6 recall, but it never is for a backup. And since Dec. 12, Georgiev has gone 4-5 with a .882 save pct. and 3.78 GAA average. Henrik Lundqvist over that same period? The Swede has gone 2-3-1 with a .894 save pct. and 3.25 GAA.
There is zero evidence that Lundqvist will ask to be moved. There is no indication that he would agree to waive his no-move clause if a Cup contender comes calling. There is no chance that management would approach him with that request absent legitimate interest from a third party.
The reluctance to part with Georgiev is understandable. But the Rangers have had a line of succession in mind for years and there has been nothing in Shesterkin’s first four months of North American pro hockey to suggest that the original plan should be scuttled. He is 24, he is lightning quick, technically superior, supremely confident and in command
If, as likely, the remainder of this season becomes more about 2020-21 and beyond than 2019-20, wouldn’t it be best to ride Shesterkin with Lundqvist as his backup rather than to continue auditioning the two young goalies?
There is no reason for Gorton to be stampeded into making a choice before its time, that is true, but, again, this could well be the only time the Rangers have leverage in trade talks as it applies to Georgiev. The last thing they need is to be sitting at the draft table in Montreal and fielding offers of late second-rounders and/or thirds for No. 40.
The bold is the key, if you can get a top-nine winger with top-six upside, then I understand making that deal. The same on if New York can get a deal similar to what Boston received for Martin Jones. If no, to move him, even factoring in all the reasons above, makes little sense. As asked by a few, what if Georgiev is the better goalie? In addition, managing the cap is feasible, since it’s one more year of Lundqvist, so the hit is the spread between what Georgiev makes now, which might be around $2 million. Depending on what happens with the cap and other moves made, that variance might not preclude keeping him. I realize I am in the minority, but I am comfortable with my view.
What say you?
Other news:
The Rangers announced Sunday it has loaned
Lias Andersson to Swedish Hockey League club HV71, a team Andersson played for earlier in his career. This move shows a slight thawing in the frosty relationship between the two sides. I gave my view on Andersson’s decision to go back home a few weeks ago. Good that John Davidson was able to crack the ice between the parties slightly, enabling Andersson to get back to playing. Doing so could raise his trade value, allowing New York to receive a decent return for him, which may be the direction the team decides to go, rather than trying to bring him back to the States.
Congrats to Hartford coach
Kris Knoblauch,
Vinni Lettieri, who had five points – three goals and a pair of assists - in the tournament, and
Joey Keane on the Atlantic Division’s triumph in the AHL All-Star Challenge. Lettieri has shown he can have great success in the minors but has failed to carry that over to the majors. This may be the case moving forward and he likely will need a change of scenery to get a real chance to stick in the NHL.
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