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The floor appears to be set for Will Butcher's next contract |
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Follow me on Twitter @ToddCordell
The New Jersey Devils still have two restricted free agents left to sign with Will Butcher – due for an arbitration hearing August 2nd – being the most notable, and the most pressing.
If some of this off-season's developments are any indication, Butcher's next contract is going to come in
well above the $2.38 million AAV projection from EvolvingWild.
Take Neal Pionk, for example. He is a 1995-born defenseman who a) put up 25+ points (26) b) logged 19+ minutes of ice on a nightly basis for a bad team and; c) had arbitration rights.
The Winnipeg Jets found a way to settle prior to arbitration and he still fetched $3 million per on a two-year deal.
The counting totals suggest Butcher, who also a) put up 25+ points (30); b) averaged 19+ minutes on a bad team; and c) has arbitration rights will be heading for a similar deal.
When looking at the underlyings, it's easy to argue Butcher deserves more from the Devils.
Butcher was a more efficient point producer and helped the Devils control a significantly larger portion of the shot attempts, goals, and expected goals. The Devils and Rangers were similarly bad so it's not as if Butcher had a quality supporting cast around him propping up the numbers.
One has to think Pionk's deal will serve as the floor for Butcher, with potential for the latter to garner more.
If that's the case, the Devils might be better off paying ~$4 million annually and getting Butcher locked up long-term through what should be the entirety of his prime.
Either way I expect Butcher to reach a new deal with the Devils prior to arbitration and I doubt it will start with a number lower than a three.
numbers via naturalstattrick.com
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