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I’m late to the party out here on the west coast, but the Senators and Leafs trade is official:
Okay, so there is a ton to unpack in this deal. First of all, getting rid of Cody Ceci is fantastic. He was a lightning rod for criticism for years, and deservingly so. Some of that is the Senators fault because they kept talking him up as if he was one of the best young players in the league when in reality he was a well below average defenseman. Ottawa also refused to trade him for multiple years when the return would have been a quality forward or at least a high draft pick. That’s not Ceci’s fault, but what is his fault is his lacklustre play.
Moving on from him is great, but leave it to Pierre Dorion to somehow get the fanbase annoyed by getting rid of Ceci. Ottawa essentially acquired the Russian version of Ceci who is signed for the next five seasons at a $4.5M cap hit. Look how comparably bad both of them have been:
They are both a trainwreck in their own zone, so I don’t expect Ottawa’s second pairing to be much better moving forward with Zaitsev there. The only problem is that DJ Smith seemingly loves him, meaning I don’t think they saw his contract as a “cap dump”---they see him as a positive asset on a fair contract. If anything, Zaitsev might become the new Ceci for this fanbase. Everybody knows the 7-year deal he signed with the Leafs was terrible except for the Senators it seems.
It appears as if the Leafs will actually keep Ceci on their roster for the upcoming season instead of walk away from arbitration, but they could also still just flip him for a pick or just walk away from him when he becomes a UFA next summer. By doing that, they will have essentially gotten out of Zaitsev’s long contract for nothing, and Kyle Dubas comes out looking quite smart. They need to save all the money they can in order to keep their star players, and this is one way to do it. What frustrates me is that I don’t understand why Ottawa didn’t just trade Ceci for futures earlier or even this week?
Perhaps the market for him wasn’t as robust as in the past, but I can’t imagine nobody was willing to give up a small asset for him. Even if that was the case, they could have just not qualified him and let him walk as a free agent instead of taking on a bad contract for five years. That’s why I believe the Senators think Zaitsev is a solid player because why else would they make this deal as opposed to moving Ceci for futures? The only positive about the Zaitsev contract is that it won’t matter for the next 2-3 years when the team is bad, but those final few years could be quite troublesome.
It was also an incredibly Ottawa Senators move for them to wait until July 1st to get this trade done just so they didn’t have to pay Zaitsev and Brown’s bonuses. In reality, that’s probably why they had to give up the 3rd round pick, which is infuriating because Dorion loves giving up draft picks in deals when he absolutely does not have to. Eugene Melnyk is almost certainly a factor in this as well, so that might have been a mandate from above. A 3rd round pick is not a huge deal, but Ottawa was supposed to be the team that was getting the “sweetener,” not Toronto. Losing Aaron Luchuk should be inconsequential, as he really struggled in the AHL as a 21-year-old, although he still has some potential.
Moving on from Ben Harpur is at least an added bonus of this trade though, as he had no spot in the lineup anymore and was just as bad, if not worse, than Ceci in Ottawa:
Michael Carcone will essentially replace Luchuk in the AHL, as he is a 23-year-old RW who posted 44 points in 62 games in the AHL last season. He isn’t much of a prospect but will help with Belleville’s depth. The other “big” piece in this trade is Connor Brown, who is also a right-winger and will slot into the Senators top-nine. In three full seasons in the NHL, his career high in points is only 36, so he isn’t anything more than a third line player, and the Senators have plenty of those. He is at least a useful defensive player, and at the age of 25 with a cap hit of $2.1M this year (RFA in 2020), he could still be around for a while:
I was hoping Ottawa would be able to get someone with more projectable upside though, as Brown doesn’t exactly excite me.
In the end, here is how the trade breaks down:
Ceci for Zaitsev---net negative with the bad contract
Ben Harpur for Connor Brown---net positive with limited upside
Luchuk for Carcone---net positive for Belleville (inconsequential)
3rd round pick for not signing the bonuses---needless net negative
Getting Brown is a nice part of this trade, but as I’ve said, he isn’t anything more than a 3rd line player, so it’s not as if Ottawa will be reaping those rewards.
Ottawa should have gotten more overall by having to take on Zaitsev’s bad contract, but as I’ve mentioned, I don’t believe Dorion and Smith view him as a bad player, which is problematic. Ceci should have had
some positive value, but this deal makes it appear as if he did not. Overall, I’m just extremely happy that I don’t have to talk about Ceci on the Senators anymore. Fans have wanted him gone for so long but he also had his ardent supporters, and it was draining having to talk about him nonstop.
I genuinely do feel bad for him as well, because he’s a local kid who just wanted to be the hero in Ottawa. He was a 1st round pick and had everything he ever wanted, but he just could not live up to the expectations. A lot of that is the organization’s fault for putting him in the same tier as so many great players, but at some point, Ceci had to step up his own game but he never did. I never criticized him as a person and he seems like a great guy, and I do hope he can find his niche in Toronto or perhaps elsewhere.
It’s just a shame that he had to be in Ottawa for as long as he was because it was clear that the fanbase did not want him here.
Furthermore, that’s not the only thing that Dorion has done today. He also signed two more former Leafs in Ron Hainsey and Tyler Ennis:
The Hainsey deal is for 1 year and $3.5M, which helps them reach the cap floor quite easily. Ennis is expected to sign a 1-year deal as well, although the cap hit has not been discussed just yet. It shouldn’t be very much considering he made just $650k on his last deal. Hainsey is a 38-year-old LHD, although he can play on the right side as well. He will probably be used in a mentoring role, although I don’t love that after shipping out Ben Harpur and opening up a spot, they fill it with an aging veteran who is going to be blocking Erik Brannstrom and potentially even Christian Wolanin.
Hainsey is quite bad at 5v5, but he can at least kill penalties and is supposedly a good leader. He also fetched a 2nd round pick (and Danny Kristo) at the 2017 deadline, so perhaps Ottawa can move him for a mid-round pick in 2020. The defense could look something like this now:
Chabot-DeMelo
Wolanin-Zaitsev
Hainsey-Jaros
Borowiecki
(Brannstrom in the AHL)
The Ennis signing I don’t have much of a problem with, especially in comparison to them keeping Brian Gibbons or Oscar Lindberg. DJ Smith is also comfortable with Ennis, and he is good defensively in the bottom-six. It is strange all of a sudden having four players who played on the Maple Leafs last season though. Neither of the Hainsey or Ennis signings matter in the big picture because they will probably be here for just one season, although I just hope DJ does not prioritize using them over prospects who actually deserve more ice-time.
Today has been the wildest July 1st for the Senators in a very long time.
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