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Oilers vs Stars Round 3 Game 1 |
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Tonight the Western Conference Finals begin with the Edmonton Oilers facing off against the Dallas Stars. This is the second time in the past three seasons that the Oilers have made it to the Western Conference Finals. The last time, Edmonton was swept by arguably the most dominant team the NHL has ever seen in that iteration of the Colorado Avalanche. This Stars team might not have the same top end elite talent of that Avs roster but they make up for it with depth throughout the lineup, and a goalie capable of being the best netminder in the world.
No excuses for the Edmonton Oilers here. They have the top four leading scorers of the playoffs on their roster and have played strong both at special teams and at 5 on 5. It's time for this team to take the next step forward.
Here are a few stats between these two teams.
The Dallas Stars and Edmonton Oilers both have 9 players who have scored 2 or more goals in the playoffs. The Stars have 9 players who have 6 or more points while the Oilers have 7.
Dallas top 3 producers in the playoffs thus far have been Heiskanen (13), Robertson (12), and Wyatt Johnson (11). Edmonton's top 3 producers have been Draisaitl (24), McDavid (21), and Bouchard (20). Just for good measure the next two for Edmonton are RNH with 16 and Zach Hyman with 13. The 5th most productive player would be tied for first with the Stars.
Evan Bouchard has taken his game to the next level in these playoffs. Bouchard is the first defenseman EVER to record 20+ points in the first two rounds of the playoffs. He is tied for first among all defensemen in goals (5), leads all defensemen in points. For those who want to call him a PP merchant. He is 2nd among all defensemen in 5 on 5 goals (3) and leads all defenders in 5 on 5 points (11).
The Oilers have outscored their opposition 13-6 when McDavid and Bouchard are on the ice together. When Bouchard is playing and McDavid is not they still outscored their opposition 4-2. The Oilers have not been scored on at 5 on 5 in the 37 minutes Bouchard has played without McDavid or Draisaitl and the team carries an xGF% of 55.62% in those minutes.
Bouchard outplayed Quinn Hughes who is going to win the Norris Trophy this season. He is my first star of the Oilers/Canucks series and both he and Ekholm will need to continue being a dominant top pairing and find a way to do the same against another dominant player in Miro Heiskanen.
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It shouldn't shock anyone to hear that the biggest advantage that the Dallas Stars have over the Oilers is their goaltending. Oettinger leads all remaining playoff teams with a 5 on 5 SV% of 0.941%. Stuart Skinner has the lowest at 0.887%.The Edmonton Oilers are going to need to play in front of Skinner the same way they did in Game 6 and Game 7 against the Canucks, blocking shooting lanes and keeping the Stars to the outside as much as possible. That is easier said than done. The Canucks were averaging roughly 20 shots a game while the Stars have been putting around 30 shots on net a game. Dallas has far more firepower to contend with.
This should be a far more open series in terms of space for the Edmonton Oilers. While the Stars have put the most shots on net at 5 on 5 of remaining teams (288) they have also given up the most shots (303). Dallas isn't nearly as stifling as either the Kings or Canucks nor are they anywhere as physical. Edmonton is the more physical team of the two and they will need to use that to their advantage and try and wear down players like Heiskanen early. Those hits in Game 1 can help you out in Game 6.
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Special teams can win playoff series. The Oilers PP leads all playoff teams at 37.5% and lead on the PK at 91.5%. The Stars have the second worst PP of remaining teams at 29% but more notable is their PK has not been good at all at 69.2%. Among all 16 playoff teams, the Stars sit 11th on the PK. The Oilers need to take advantage of any powerplays they get because Oettinger is nearly unstoppable at 5 on 5.
If the Oilers win this series, I think one player who will have been a big factor in that is Ryan McLeod. The McLeod line has been counted on to be a shutdown line against top opposition. The line has been excellent at this until the major gaffe by McLeod in Game 7 against the Canucks. The Stars have more depth throughout their lineup and they need that McLeod line to at bare minimum shut down the offense from one of the Stars lines but if they can find a way to get the Oilers on the board that would be a major boon.
Last note on injuries. It looks like Henrique is still out of the lineup but is expected to play by Game 3 at the latest. Once he is back I would put him with McLeod and Foegele.
The big injury news is that Roope Hintz will miss Game 1. Hintz is an excellent player and provides Dallas with one more scoring threat. Edmonton finding a way to gain traction early and earn a first win in Dallas while he is out could be one of the keys to them winning this series.
Edmonton is certainly going into this series as the underdog but this is an Oilers team that clawed back from dead last in the NHL in November to where they are today. They've shown their resiliency and I think this is going to be an excellent series to cover.
Thanks for reading.
Edmonton Oilers Blogger • 
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