Hey everyone. Officially back from the honeymoon and looking forward to posting with far more regularity again. Today I want to look at what Jay Woodcroft may do with the Oilers defensive pairings this season.

Going into the playoffs last season the Oilers were running the following defensive pairs fairly regularly:

Nurse-Ceci
Ekholm-Bouchard
Kulak-Desharnais
Broberg

Early in the pre-season and practices however we have seen Jay Woodcroft go to some different pairings. There was some shuffling due to Ekholm being injured (mildly) to start training camp but assuming other AHL options have been a stand in for him this is what Woodcroft wants to run:

Nurse-Bouchard
Ekholm-Broberg
Kulak-Ceci
Desharnais

Now obviously there is a chance that a day from now these lines could be completely changed but I really like this idea for Edmonton and I think these pairings may maximize the Oilers effectiveness in all areas of the ice.

Nurse/Bouchard
The fancy stats have always liked the Nurse and Bouchard pairing. Over the past two seasons, Nurse and Bouchard have played 664 minutes together at Even Strength, posting a CF% of 58.51%, outchancing their opponents, and an xGF% of 58.56%. The problem is the actual goals for/against which are 25 for and 29 against or 46.30%. Some of that would certainly fall on the players while others would be on the forwards or the goalie. The analytics do however suggest that long term this pairing should create far more chances than it allows.

Forgetting about the "nerd talk" for a second. What can this duo do together? Darnell Nurse's best attributes are his skating and physicality while Bouchard is an excellent passer with elite offensive instincts. Together this duo can exit the defensive end in a number of different ways, either themselves or transporting the puck up quickly to their linemates.

The biggest question mark with this pairing would be the overall defensive play when they will eventually get hemmed in their own end. Nurse's best traits of skating and puck transportation also become his biggest weakness when he gets caught out in his own end or loses his own man. Bouchard is a decent defender in his own rights but he is not a shutdown player by any stretch. The only way this pairing can work effectively is if Nurse embraces a far more defensive style and isn't so concerned with trying to exit the zone himself. If he can adapt his game to this than this could be an excellent pair for the Oilers.


Ekholm/Broberg
We really don't have any kind of sample size to highlight these two (13:43 together at 5 on 5 - 77.78CF%, 2GF 0GA, 91.72xGF%). The hope for this duo is simple; Ekholm can do for Broberg what he did for Bouchard last season. Ekholm is arguably the Oilers true #1 defenseman in terms of his play at all ends of the ice and Broberg is a high drafted prospect who has shown some flashes but hasn't truly broken out in a big way yet.

I've said in other blogs that I want Woodcroft to push guys like Broberg, Holloway, and Lavoie early in the season and give them some legitimate minutes. It may end up with some extra losses early on but could result in a far deeper and more prepared roster come playoff time.

Throwing Broberg to the wolves with Ekholm is certainly trial by fire, but Ekholm is a calm player who could certainly help to cover any of Broberg's mistakes and help the player learn more on the fly and be an excellent mentor. I want to see this pair get a legitimate shot together over at least 10 games before dismissing it.

Kulak/Ceci/Desharnais

Brett Kulak was an excellent player for the Oilers two seasons ago when he was acquired at the deadline. For much of last season he played top 4 for the Oilers and was in over his head. Once Ekholm was acquired and Kulak went back to a third pairing option, he showed what a strong option he is for the blueline; playing fewer minutes and not the toughest competition every night.

That is something I think Cody Ceci would also benefit from and these two vets together as a shutdown third pairing could be a truly effective option for Woodcroft. Instead of averaging over 20 minutes a game, Ceci could be an 18ish minute player, getting the occasional bump up the lineup should Broberg need a break.

The last key to this cog is Desharnais who will fill in as the #7 guy but still may play on most nights considering how Woodcroft likes using the 11/7 format.

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Ultimately here is the breakdown for these pairings:

Nurse/Bouchard - 22-24 minutes a game - more offensive zone starts
Ekholm/Broberg - 22-24 minutes a game - more defensive zone starts
Kulak/Ceci - 18-20 minutes a game - hard defensive zone starts

Broberg is the key to this all working out. If he cannot handle the minutes you likely need to go back to Ekholm with Bouchard and Ceci playing with Nurse again. That is a duo I want to avoid playing together as much as possible this season.

Over the next few days we will likely get a clearer picture on what Woodcroft is thinking on his defensive pairs.

Thanks for reading.

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