Failure in high command -
what comes next for a troubled franchise
The title Failure in High Command comes from a book I read in University about Dieppe. The soldiers landing on the shores of France didn’t have enough logistical support to allow for any sort of success. But lessons were learned and two years later D-Day was a success. It is important to learn lessons to move forward and have success with anything in life. So with this in mind, let’s take a look at the Toronto Maple Leafs and what has led to yet another year of disappointment, a frustrated fan base, and a lot of questions moving forward.
That old cliche of doing the same thing and expecting different results is the definition of insanity, often holds true. With this in mind, I have always found it hard to believe that the Toronto Maple Leafs continued to turn over the same nucleus of players year after year, while augmenting the supporting cast, and expected things to turn out any different. Now having said that, another cliche that can ring true is you're not a winner, or don’t know how to win, until you win. That was true for the 2018 Washington capitals who finally got over the hump and hoisted a cup. So could that be true for the Toronto Maple Leafs too? Is it closer than we think? Could they finally get over that hump with this group? Honestly, this year did feel a little different. You had a new coach that is at the very least perceived as a no nonsense older school hockey mind. Someone who was going to focus the star studded line up of players away from too much east-west hockey. Away from circling back and trying fancy flip passes to each other. To get the players skating straighter lines, more north-south, more directing pucks at the net, more chaos in front of the opposing teams crease, more greasy goals. In addition to this, the GM had gone out and signed some defencemen who are stout defenders. Players who get it. Chris Tanev was a warrior for the Leafs this year. He is the exact type of player the Leafs needed on the back end. He plays safe, plays smart, and because of this is often able to control the tempo of games from the back end in a way Chris Pronger once did. Now Tannev is no Pronger. Pronger had size, offensive abilities, and a serious mean streak, all of which Tanev does not possess. But Tanev was a huge addition to the blue line. He, paired with McCabe, made up one of the most steady and reliable D pairings in the NHL this year! This year felt different. Not only was Tanev a rock on the blueline, there were other upgrades as well. Oliver Ekman-Larsson played well as a bottom pair defender, was able to move higher up in the depth chart when injuries occurred, and added some more offence from the blue line, something the leafs desperately needed (and still do). And then the deadline acquisition of Brandon Carlo further bolstered the right side and helped to make up the deepest Leafs blueline I can remember in a long time.
Though this year had some differences there was also a lot that was the same about this team. Namely, that the core of players (Matthews, Marner, Nylander, Tavares, and yes Reilly) were all returning for another shot at the cup. That group of players I just listed were paid $54,153,000.00. That is 61.5% of the team's cap! So you live and die by what those players bring to the team. They are the leaders. They have to be. They set the tone. They are expected to step up in the biggest moments and contribute in meaningful ways.
Let's get back to that Failure in High Command title. Rewind 11 years. The leafs have drafted in the top of the draft class for three years in a row selecting Nylander 8th overall in 2014, Marner 4th overall in 2015, and Matthews 1st overall in 2016. They are all tremendously skilled. The future looked bright for the Leafs. Furthermore you had a stable of hockey minds in upper management. The likes of Lou Lamirello, Mark Hunter, and Jacques Lemaire to name a few. Brendan Shanahan was made team president. What's not to like about the way things were looking? As Lamerillo’s contract came to an end, it was time to either re-up the veteran general manager or find someone new for this young promising team. A GM who could set boundaries and parameters on the structure and payscale of this team. A GM who could BUILD a team. And who did Shanahan look to to lead this task? Who did he call on from that stable of great minds? Not the incumbent Lamerillo, not Hunter, or Lemaire. No, he called on Kyle Dubas, a young kid with ZERO NHL experience! Over the next couple of years, Dubas proceeded to hand out player friendly deals to Matthews and Marner which set a dangerous precedent in the organization and crippled them from building a real team. He let Nylander hold out for half the season showing these young players who really had the power. As a result you had a very young Matthews, Marner, and Nylander who had been paid a king's ransom without winning anything. Marner had two 60 point seasons, and then a 90 point season playing alongside the newly inked Tavares, when he got his 10.9 million dollar deal! That is crazy. He was the highest paid right wing in the game. Higher than the likes of Kucherov or Pastrnak. As a result, this crop of young players didn’t grow or mature in the way you would expect young players to. Not to mention, the pay structure of the organization was in serious trouble - a failure in high command.
Ok so fast forward to the present. The leafs have just been shown the door in yet another game 7. They are now 0-7 in winner take all game 7’s since 2017. In those game 7’s, Matthews has 0 goals and 3 assists. Marner has 0 goals and 2 assists. Does it matter how they lost this game against the Panthers? A 6-1 beating? I think it does. More so, it matters the response in the post game interviews. To have your captain publicly state that there were passengers on the team in the game does not sit well. If I was on the team I'd be wondering, who is he talking about? Is he talking about me? Not to mention, to have passengers, that implies you have a driver which a captain should be! I dare say 1 goal in a crucial second round playoff series against the team who embarrassed you 2 seasons ago is not driving your team. In years past Marner's sound bites have not been much better. My favorite was his response to being asked if he was going to watch the game tapes from a playoff series loss. He replied no! Why not? Can you not maybe learn something, take something away from reviewing the games? And then of course there was the “we are treated like god’s” comment from last year's exit.
So what does this organisation do moving forward? It has been clear for years now that the composition of this team, the way in which the valuable cap dollars have been allocated, is not working. That’s the failure of management. Might it be time to move away from Brendan Shanahan as team President? As great of a player as he was, he did not show sound judgement in his hire of Dubas as GM, and generally has not been very present in the organization. A failure in high command. Does this mean that Pelley takes over the role of president? Whoever does has to bring stability and accountability to an organization that has let players wear track suits and running shoes to games and who have taken little responsibility for coming up short in big games despite being paid big dollars. Once this question has been answered, the organization can truly begin to look at the makeup of this team on the ice and what kind of identity is needed to be successful in the Stanley Cup Playoffs.
How could this transpire to on ice changes? It would be nice if all of the core four or five were on expiring contracts. If that was the case, it would be interesting to hear opinions on who should be asked back and who should not. But the situation is that both Marner and Tavares are set to become UFA’s on July 1st. Some people are built to handle pressure situations, or in the Leafs case, pressure filled environments. I do not believe Marner is one of those people. Maybe it is because of how he was handled early in his Professional career, being handed way too much too soon? But for however skilled he is, something needs to give. Could the Leafs entertain not re-signing Marner? The bad news is you lose a skilled homegrown/drafted talent. The worse news is you lose a player who produced a 100 point season and you won’t find anyone in the free agent class to replace that with. The good news, however, is that you have 10.9 million in free cap space and the better news is that you change the dynamic of the team. Marner was never a good leader. I cringed seeing him wear an A on his sweater. And when he was seen yelling at his bench to wake the F up in game seven, I wondered why he felt entitled to yell at his teammates when all he seemed able to do was flip the puck in the air through the neutral zone? That leads us to the other big UFA, John Tavares. Now I do like Tavares. He seems like a good guy and he had a hell of a season potting 38 goals. But he will be 35 in September and it may be time to move on from him too. That’s another 11 million in freed up cap space and to be honest, as much as I do like Tavares, he isn't really a vocal leader. He doesn’t seem like someone who can grab his teammates attention and will them over the finish line.
Now to the core players who are signed through next year and beyond. I’m not sure you can go scorched earth here and as much as I didn’t like Matthews comments after game 7, or his inability to elevate in big moments, I do believe you keep him. Asking him to waive his no movement clause would leave the team with Scott Laughton, Max Domi, David Kampf and Pontus Homberg down the middle next year. Yikes! Besides, perhaps if you take away Marner and replace him with a big body, a hard nosed hockey player, maybe that will drag Matthews into the fight? That is tough to say, considering he was the highest paid player in the NHL this year! Then there is William Nylander who is signed for another 7 years. Here is a polarizing player. One who at times appears disinterested in engaging in any sort of physical play, and at other times looks like the best player in the world. Whether you like or hate the player, he has been the only one of the core players that has consistently produced goals in the playoffs over the past decade. Lastly, we come to Morgan Reilly. Reilly has had an ability to score goals in the playoffs being the 4th highest active goal scoring D man in the NHL post season. However, his defensive miscues and apparent inability to use his partner in any sort of east-west D to D passing play are glaring areas of weakness for this team. Time and again, Reilly forces passes up the middle and through the neutral zone that get picked off and come the other way. And when they do, he is out of position and unable to defend, left only to wave his stick at players as they blow past him. Morgan Reilly is the one core player under contract moving forward I believe could be asked to waive his no trade clause. Some may say he holds all the cards because of that clause, that his wife and he like it in Toronto and that he won't agree to a trade. Others would say there are ways to make a player realize that their time with a team has come to an end. A worse case scenario would be putting Reilly through waivers in which case he would surely be claimed. But I believe a trade could be made here bringing back some sort of assets, and more importantly freeing up another 7.5 in cap space and continuing to change the dynamic of this team. With Marner, Tavares and Reilly not back, you do have holes to fill. But you also have almost 30 million in additional cap space.
The biggest question is, can the change that comes from moving off of a significant part of your core, be meaningful? Can there be guidance from the top of the organization down through management as to what kind of player is required to move this organisation forward? I read an article years ago, sometime after Marner was drafted, in which a team executive who was in on draft interviews said that after interviewing Marner they knew he was highly skilled but he was missing something else. In short, they didn’t feel comfortable drafting him because they didn’t think he was a winner. I hope that at the highest level of the Leafs command, they can put together a team of players that have a winning DNA.
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