Peter Tessier: Weber or Picks? It's about Dollars and Sense A look at what value exists in late first round draft picks and how it might affect the Predators decision towards the Shea Weber offer sheet.

I think Nashville will match just based on the fact they need to spend 14 million to get to the floor.

Sure they could trade for salary, but if they have to spend the money anyways, I can't think of a better player to spend it on than Weber.

Peter Tessier: Weber or Picks? It's about Dollars and Sense
A look at what value exists in late first round draft picks and how it might affect the Predators decision towards the Shea Weber offer sheet.
- Peter.Tessier

They can not let him go for the 4 picks. If they cant work out a reasonable trade in the next 6 days then they have no choice but to match. I think we see something along the lines of Voracek, Read and 2 firsts.

I think Nashville will match just based on the fact they need to spend 14 million to get to the floor.

Sure they could trade for salary, but if they have to spend the money anyways, I can't think of a better player to spend it on than Weber.
- IanEsplen

I have not taken that aspect into consideration but it is a relevant point and one what will have some effect. As for a player to spend that money on? If he's not named Crosby I don't think he's worth it IMO.

I think Nashville will match just based on the fact they need to spend 14 million to get to the floor.

Sure they could trade for salary, but if they have to spend the money anyways, I can't think of a better player to spend it on than Weber.
- IanEsplen

The question is, does Predators ownership have enough money up front to pay Weber's salary and bonus? I think that will be the deciding factor as to if Weber stays or not.

They can not let him go for the 4 picks. If they cant work out a reasonable trade in the next 6 days then they have no choice but to match. I think we see something along the lines of Voracek, Read and 2 firsts.
- Iggysbff

I beleive you are right, but there would probably be a defensemen going back the other directions as well. The Flyers will have a log jam and need to shed salary.

Voreck, Mez, and 2 first.

**I also beleive the offer sheet came from the belief that the Flyers believe they have enough young talent heading forward they can loose the picks. This comes on the heals of their development camp which featured some real strong play from their prospects and invitees.

Peter is absolutely right. Brett Wilson owns 12% of the Predators (increased it from 5% last November and has an option to go to 51% at any time) and he is a billionaire with a B. No shortage of money - the question is whether Weber is worth paying $56 million to over the next 4 years. I doubt it but the perception here is that if the Preds don't match and take the picks, no free agent will go anywhere near them (unless they overpay) and they will be in a continual rebuilding mode. A tough choice - I would match, keep him for a year, and then trade him. The offer sheet has a no trade clause but Weber will waive.

Brett Wilson is a native of Saskatchewan and I think in the back of his mind is the potential to move the team to Regina. A smallish city but the province is very rich (it sits on potash) and more corporate dollars there all the time.

I think Nashville will match just based on the fact they need to spend 14 million to get to the floor.

Sure they could trade for salary, but if they have to spend the money anyways, I can't think of a better player to spend it on than Weber.
- IanEsplen

It's not about the cap hit - it's about the real money that needs to be paid to him over the first few years of the contract. It's a contract that structured in such a way that only maybe a dozen teams in the league could sustain it. Nashville isn't one of them.

Peter is absolutely right. Brett Wilson owns 12% of the Predators (increased it from 5% last November and has an option to go to 51% at any time) and he is a billionaire with a B. No shortage of money - the question is whether Weber is worth paying $56 million to over the next 4 years. I doubt it but the perception here is that if the Preds don't match and take the picks, no free agent will go anywhere near them (unless they overpay) and they will be in a continual rebuilding mode. A tough choice - I would match, keep him for a year, and then trade him. The offer sheet has a no trade clause but Weber will waive.

Brett Wilson is a native of Saskatchewan and I think in the back of his mind is the potential to move the team to Regina. A smallish city but the province is very rich (it sits on potash) and more corporate dollars there all the time.
- JoeBlow56

Your paying a player 27 million in one year just to trade him? Makes no sense

Peter is absolutely right. Brett Wilson owns 12% of the Predators (increased it from 5% last November and has an option to go to 51% at any time) and he is a billionaire with a B. No shortage of money - the question is whether Weber is worth paying $56 million to over the next 4 years. I doubt it but the perception here is that if the Preds don't match and take the picks, no free agent will go anywhere near them (unless they overpay) and they will be in a continual rebuilding mode. A tough choice - I would match, keep him for a year, and then trade him. The offer sheet has a no trade clause but Weber will waive.

Brett Wilson is a native of Saskatchewan and I think in the back of his mind is the potential to move the team to Regina. A smallish city but the province is very rich (it sits on potash) and more corporate dollars there all the time.
- JoeBlow56

I can't see the Preds paying a player 26 million to trade him unless the offer is pretty sweet.

If they pay roughly 25% of the contract I'm pretty sure they will hold on to him for longer than 1 year.

Nothing drives me crazier than someone saying a late first is worthless. Shea Weber was a mid-SECOND!

Peter is absolutely right. Brett Wilson owns 12% of the Predators (increased it from 5% last November and has an option to go to 51% at any time) and he is a billionaire with a B. No shortage of money - the question is whether Weber is worth paying $56 million to over the next 4 years. I doubt it but the perception here is that if the Preds don't match and take the picks, no free agent will go anywhere near them (unless they overpay) and they will be in a continual rebuilding mode. A tough choice - I would match, keep him for a year, and then trade him. The offer sheet has a no trade clause but Weber will waive.

Brett Wilson is a native of Saskatchewan and I think in the back of his mind is the potential to move the team to Regina. A smallish city but the province is very rich (it sits on potash) and more corporate dollars there all the time.
- JoeBlow56

Really!? Why would the Preds match, have to pay $27 million-ish dollars (which is what he would be due over the next year) and then trade him?

Either he will be a Pred for a long time or he will be a Flyer by middle of next week.

I beleive you are right, but there would probably be a defensemen going back the other directions as well. The Flyers will have a log jam and need to shed salary.

Voreck, Mez, and 2 first.

**I also beleive the offer sheet came from the belief that the Flyers believe they have enough young talent heading forward they can loose the picks. This comes on the heals of their development camp which featured some real strong play from their prospects and invitees.
- flyers2001

You think enough of Weber to pay him 56 million in 4 years but you want to trade your garbage for him and expect Nashville to except it. If I were Poile you'd give me the Schenn brothers and Coots or you wouldn't get Weber. For those thinking Nashville doesn't have the money..you obviously don't realize the available resources to millionaires.

It's not about the cap hit - it's about the real money that needs to be paid to him over the first few years of the contract. It's a contract that structured in such a way that only maybe a dozen teams in the league could sustain it. Nashville isn't one of them.
- billcanuck

Weber will be paid, the Preds will lose millions, the other owners will bail them out, owners will whine, Gary will say no one is making money...


and the cycle will continue

IMO- losing Weber, and Suter may cost the Preds more in income from fans than paying Weber.

Pay Weber and lose 10-15 million or don't pay him and watch 15-20 million in ticket/jersey sales go out the door.

You think enough of Weber to pay him 56 million in 4 years but you want to trade your garbage for him and expect Nashville to except it. If I were Poile you'd give me the Schenn brothers and Coots or you wouldn't get Weber. For those thinking Nashville doesn't have the money..you obviously don't realize the available resources to millionaires.
- Graydayz

it isnt about what the millionaires have, it is about the bottom line of the franchise...look at how much you would be paying out to 2 players over the next few years, which could ultimately kill the entire bottom line of the team. Remember it isnt how much they have, it is how much they are willing to pay, there is a HUGE difference between the 2.

Fantastic read, thank you for all the information.

If kane gets a massive offer sheet it will be all sorts of ironic for me as my Hometown team is a massive big team whos not scared to flex their finical muscles, and my adopted team is the Little Jet that could

You think enough of Weber to pay him 56 million in 4 years but you want to trade your garbage for him and expect Nashville to except it. If I were Poile you'd give me the Schenn brothers and Coots or you wouldn't get Weber. For those thinking Nashville doesn't have the money..you obviously don't realize the available resources to millionaires.
- Graydayz

Your funny! The availible resources of millionaires has nothing to do with making good business deals. Poile had many opportunities to explore options with Weber in regards to resigning him in the past 24 months or making a trade before it came to this point. The Flyers forced his hand. So its either sign him to the deal the Flyers offered him or take the 4 picks, in which you still need several NHL players and a ton of salary to get to the floor. The Flyers don't have to trade anyone if Nashville does not match. The Flyers would be making a seperate offer in which Nashville could net a decent return and get NHL ready players, picks, and money to get to the cap floor.

If Voracek, Mez, and Read are garbage then you have a misguided view. They are not all-stars but they are very solid young NHL players with good upside, esp. Voreck who was the 7th overall pick in 2007.

While I agree that 4 1sts is nothing to sneeze at, you're looking at the final piece of the deal being in the NHL in roughly 7 years (the last pick being 4 years from now + development time)
Shea is an established commodity while the picks could go either way. When you lose a player like that it is good to have something of value immediately for the fans or you risk losing some of your fanbase.
Would you trade Kane for 2 1sts a 2nd and a 3rd?
I think NSH matches it and Shea is a Pred for a few years.

Fantastic read, thank you for all the information.

If kane gets a massive offer sheet it will be all sorts of ironic for me as my Hometown team is a massive big team whos not scared to flex their finical muscles, and my adopted team is the Little Jet that could
- flyers4487

Thanks for the compliments.

I don't see Kane getting a huge offer sheet like Weber- at just under 21 years of age he is a huge risk for those kinds of dollars. Even at a front loaded deal- with a 10 mill signing bonus I can't see the average cap hit being more than 5.5 per year.

The richest individual in the NHL is co-owner of the Jets he can match anything IN THEORY but it makes little sense IMO to comitt to such huge dollars for so long or even so short.

Think of it this way with any player- can the Flyers get 50 mill in extra revenue to cover the salary cost? Probably not- so what are they giving up in profit to pay Weber? Will the Preds make that cost up by retaining him? I doubt it. So that's why I let him walk.

If a team offer sheeted Kane to the same tune of 4 first round picks the same logic applies to the Jets as it would the Preds or any other team.

wow !

does Ottawa have good picks or what !


Weber has proven to be pretty damn consistent as a D-man

As good as Doughty and Karlsson have been, they still need to show they can be consistent for the next few seasons.

then there is Chara

other than that !

Weber is probably the best there is !

I would pay top dollar for the best D-man in the league

Thanks for the compliments.

I don't see Kane getting a huge offer sheet like Weber- at just under 21 years of age he is a huge risk for those kinds of dollars. Even at a front loaded deal- with a 10 mill signing bonus I can't see the average cap hit being more than 5.5 per year.

The richest individual in the NHL is co-owner of the Jets he can match anything IN THEORY but it makes little sense IMO to comitt to such huge dollars for so long or even so short.

Think of it this way with any player- can the Flyers get 50 mill in extra revenue to cover the salary cost? Probably not- so what are they giving up in profit to pay Weber? Will the Preds make that cost up by retaining him? I doubt it. So that's why I let him walk.

If a team offer sheeted Kane to the same tune of 4 first round picks the same logic applies to the Jets as it would the Preds or any other team.
- Peter.Tessier

Heres the thing about the flyers, they make ALOT of money, but they also spend alot of money. Money never has and is not now an issue for this team. With perhaps the richest owner in the league, a championship is worth alot of money in this city for comcast.

I find my self now hoping this doesn't happen to the jets but the situation is different. for all the reasons that you have stated. Plus i dont have the numbers but the Jets gate $$ has to be impressive.

You think enough of Weber to pay him 56 million in 4 years but you want to trade your garbage for him and expect Nashville to except it. If I were Poile you'd give me the Schenn brothers and Coots or you wouldn't get Weber. For those thinking Nashville doesn't have the money..you obviously don't realize the available resources to millionaires.
- Graydayz

Poile has repeatedly said "he wants players who want to be a Predator in Nashville".
If #6 wants out, I think Poile obliges.

Poile has repeatedly said "he wants players who want to be a Predator in Nashville".
If #6 wants out, I think Poile obliges.
- Fangor

What are you guys hearing in Nashville?

TNGUy4 - the only reason you would pay him $27 million and then trade him is because you CANNOT trade him for 1 year. So of course it is a huge hit but you bank on another great year and then trade him for usable assets. Or you take the 4 1st round picks now if you think they offer more. They in fact might offer more but you won't know for 7 or 8 years (4 years after you choose the last 18 year old) and by that time Nashville doesn't have a team and you go back to watching Gomer Pyle reruns on Saturday night.

What are you guys hearing in Nashville?
- flyers4487

Not much, mostly questioning Poile's potential 0-2 handling of Sutes and Webs.