Jeremy Laura: The numbers - 5 seasons of Yzerman and the Yzerplan

I hate that detroit is out with 41 wins yet teams with 39 and 40 are in. F bettman

Most people expected us to be on the bubble for a wild card this year and that is exactly how it played out. A big part of me thinks it is actually beneficial for this team long-term that they came up a touch short. They showed incredible heart and determination down this final stretch but will now enter the off-season with a bitter chip on their shoulder. That should lead to some solid training and focus leading into next season.
Next year, the bar will be raised. The expectation will now be for a playoff appearance and anything less will be a huge disappointment.
It was also great seeing Edvinsson get some meaningful minutes during such an important stretch of games. He still appears raw, which is to be expected at his age but the projection of him as a second-pair D for the future is undershooting his potential I believe. As a big man, it takes time to fully develop, especially at the D position. This may sound overly optimistic but I believe both he and Seider will find themselves in the Norris trophy conversation at some point.
It will also be interesting to track the development of players such as Danielson, Sandin Pellika and Kasper throughout the summer and into camp. More seasoning is probably needed but all 3 should be making meaningful contributions in the not too distant future as well.

Point pace per 82 games over the last 5 seasons:

45, 70, 74, 80, 91.

The fact that the Red Wings have noticeably improved (at least in the results department) every year for four consecutive years, including a 25-point leap and an 11-point one, and still haven't gotten back to the playoffs is a pretty staggering indictment of Ken Holland. I still don't think people truly comprehend how wretched the state of the organization was when Yzerman took over. Cap hell, no elite players, only a couple good ones, and almost nothing in the pipeline.

That's not to say I'm exactly thrilled with Yzerman either. In general I think he's made more good decisions than bad ones but there's still too many mediocre guys with term on this roster, and unless Seider/Raymond go full Hedman/Kucherov (not likely) it's still hard to see how the Red Wings break through to true contender status. Yzerman still has a lot of work to do.

Compare:
2019-2020
Bertuzzi Larkin Mantha
Athanasiou Nielsen Hirose
Erne Filppula Zadina
Helm Glendening Abdelkader
Dekeyser Hronek
Nemeth Green
Bowey Daley
Howard
Bernier

2023-2024
DeBrincat Larkin Raymond
Perron Compher Kane
Rasmussen Copp Fabbri
Fischer Veleno Sprong
Walman Seider
Edvinsson Chiarot
Matta Petry
Husso
Lyon

That is improvement.

To me, these are the stats that will matter in the future:
2019: 11 draft picks - 1 NHL player
2020: 12 draft picks - 1 NHL player
2021: 8 draft picks - 1 NHL player (last few games of this season)
2022: 9 draft picks - 0 NHL players
2023: 11 draft picks - 0 NHL players

For this rebuild to be called a success, three things must happen. First, they have to produce one NHL caliber player per first round pick for each of the past five years. Over that time, they've drafted 7 players in the first round, all of them must become legit NHL players and 3 to 4 must be first or second line players. They were in the lottery all five years and those picks have to pan out. Second, out of the 44 players drafted outside of the first round, three or four of them need to become legit NHL players. To me, this is what separates the top teams from perennial lottery teams. They have to find a second to seventh round gem at least one time out of every three years. Third, Cossa and Augustine must pan out. They have to become legit NHL goalies or else this rebuild fails.

None of this means all of these players have to be Red Wings players, but they have to be NHL worthy either as players for the Wings, or to be used to acquire assets. The Panthers made it to the cup finals last year (and could possibly again this year) with only two players on their rosters being FL drafted players.

Do I think all of this will happen? Yes I do. The Wings aren't getting their super star due to bad drafting luck, but I think they are going to have some solid NHL players in the coming years. As I look at their prospects, it's possible, if not probable, that twelve out of 51 picks become legit NHL players, which is exactly what a solid rebuild requires. They'll need some savvy trades and a few savvy FA signings, but I think they'll be right there and in the mix to compete for a cup. It's not very often that the star-studded teams win the cup, it's the teams with the best playoff performers.

Kane not coming back.

Is there something official? I did read this at the athletic, and he's certainly sounding like he's moving on but I guess you never know.

https://theathletic.com/5...ource=user-shared-article

To me, losing him is a blow to the overall GA/GP, no doubt. But watching him play, I see more of a loss of an intangble: his ability to slow the game down and dictate play. Everything slowed down when the puck his his stick. He wasn't perfact, mind ypu, but he did take control of the game. If Kane deprats (likely), someone needs to come in to do that for us. That's a big ask and would need to be a big-named player asking for big-time numbers.... With our current cap situation, I don't think we'll have the $$ to do Raymond, Mo, and Kane-like....

To me, losing him is a blow to the overall GA/GP, no doubt. But watching him play, I see more of a loss of an intangble: his ability to slow the game down and dictate play. Everything slowed down when the puck his his stick. He wasn't perfact, mind ypu, but he did take control of the game. If Kane deprats (likely), someone needs to come in to do that for us. That's a big ask and would need to be a big-named player asking for big-time numbers.... With our current cap situation, I don't think we'll have the $$ to do Raymond, Mo, and Kane-like....
- mcmastermike1968

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i love how this team hasnt made the playoffs during Yzermans tenur and now we are in a cap crunch. Guess thats what you get when you sign guys like Copp, Chiarot, Holl to stupid contracts

So, as I read through the various comments above, I almost reppied to each independently but then realized that'd be too cumbersome....Suffice to say, each of the above are VERY insightful and are accurate representations of the season & way ahead....

Bottom line is this team played veyond expectations and had those glaring areas of wekaness. Much like was addressed earlier, we fixed the GF/GP issue at the sacrifice of GAA/overall team D. What we hopefully learned was that regardless of who is on the d-line, there have GOT to be offensive guys who are capable of effective 2-way play. There were times where this team was an absolute beast to play against....then was a collander. There has GOT to be a more realistic balance with guys who can augment gaps in coverage, compliment each other's style of play. We have to get better as a team from a defensive stand-point. We need several other capabilities as well; need another Larkin....

Let's face it; drafting is risky. Injuries, attitudes, player desires, growth...there are myrid impacts that can impact a draftee so we won't know what we get until we get it. Thankfully, the negative actiins of previous leadership has been addressed and we've begun the journey down a new pathway. I think, overall, we're in great shape. Yeah, some moves make one wanna question sanity, but in the aggregate.....this IS a good team with a VERY promising future.

These are great times, y'all. VERY happy and proud to be a Wings fan.

"Kane not coming back." Kane wants term in his next contract, and I don't believe Yzerman will give it to him.

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i love how this team hasnt made the playoffs during Yzermans tenur and now we are in a cap crunch. Guess thats what you get when you sign guys like Copp, Chiarot, Holl to stupid contracts
- wingz4life

They have an estimated 30m in space with 13 players signed for next year. This isn’t the Sabres missing 13 straight years. It’s year 5. Copp, i don’t like the tag. Holl, same. Chiarot I’m not crazy about. Regardless, count the number of players let go, bought out, moved on and the players that are moving up the ranks post draft. Yzerman has made bad decisions, he’s also made some very good decisions (Seider, Raymond, Walman, Lyon). Regardless of where you’re at, there are teams with way more money invested and not a lot to show for it. Is a first round boot out of the playoffs a huge improvement? You literally tied in points with the final bubble team and have had year over year improvement after tearing down almost an entire team. Agree or no, this team was blown off and got the attention of the league this year.

"Kane not coming back." Kane wants term in his next contract, and I don't believe Yzerman will give it to him.
- Bigfrog

He’d wanted it with the last one, but the surgery kept teams from the offer. He was a gift and it would stink to see him go but if he’s looking for one more cup that’s a very real possibility. It sounds like Perron wants to stay, my write up for tomorrow talks a little about that. I’ll post it a bit later