Mike Augello: Leafs Home-Ice Dreams Dashed With Loss To Devils

Mike Augello: Leafs Home-Ice Dreams Dashed With Loss To Devils
- mikeinbuffalo

FIRSTIES!!!

edit:👊🏿

edit:what a (frank)ing joke 🤦‍♂️

edit: alliteration👍🏿

Magic number for the Leafs to finish ahead of Tampa is now 2.

Magic number for the Panthers to finish ahead of Toronto is 1.

You're watching the final three games to see Matthews score goals and Willy collect points.

In the case of these two teams, I'm not sure, but when you break it down further, it continues to not discriminate:

Leafs

Home vs. Playoff Teams: 11-8-2 .571
Away vs. Playoff Teams: 7-6-4 .529

Home vs. Non-playoff Teams: 11-7-1 .605
Away vs. Non-playoff teams: 17-3-2 .818

Panthers

Home vs. Playoff Teams: 9-8-0 .529
Away vs. Playoff Teams: 11-6-4 .619

Home vs. Non-playoff Teams: 15-5-1 .727
Away vs. Non-playoff teams: 15-5-0 .750

. . .like ultimately the Panthers are .580 against playoff teams and the Leafs are .553.

I am far less concerned with the home/away ice and far more concerned about our special teams inability to perform of late.

Since March 1st we have the #31 Power Play and the #24 Penalty Kill. That's beyond abysmal and inexcusable with this lineup. And playing against a crappy team with a crappy coach who are missing their star and have nothing to play for - our PP was awful and our PK was worse. They have about a week to figure out what the f*(^ they've done to break it and put it back together.

My bad, I wasn't clear with my requested research. For me, the regular season home/away of these two teams doesn't really matter at all.

What does playoff history tell us, statistically, about the importance of home ice in a game 7 scenario?

What gets me is, we are 31st in pp and these guys have been together, on the pp, for YEARS! Is there a pp in the league where the core have played together more? Clearly the recipe doesn’t work! Change it! Hello!!!

What gets me is, we are 31st in pp and these guys have been together, on the pp, for YEARS! Is there a pp in the league where the core have played together more? Clearly the recipe doesn’t work! Change it! Hello!!!
- Bullot

Penguins have a worse PP and they've been together for like 20 years

wind's au-gustin' in augusta today

What gets me is, we are 31st in pp and these guys have been together, on the pp, for YEARS! Is there a pp in the league where the core have played together more? Clearly the recipe doesn’t work! Change it! Hello!!!
- Bullot

https://www.covers.com/sp.../team-powerplay/2023-2024

Here's the current list.

Boston, LA, Vegas, Winnipeg, Washington all have had core guys for awhile and have a worse powerplay. Can you just admit you hate the leafs?

I hope Matthews gets his 2 goals on Saturday night, then shut him down until the playoffs. You know the two Florida teams will be hacking and slashing their way to the playoffs. Best to keep Matthews healthy, while sending a message to the Florida teams physically. It's time to park Giordano and Brodie for the rest of the year. It's time to figure out the right side of the defense and get some reps in for both Liljegren and Timmins. Brodie does not work on the right side and is a detriment. McCabe should be with Benoit and Boosh should be with Rielly. Figure out who the bottom pair should be with the remaining pieces available. Edmonston should be on the bottom pair with either Liljegren or Timmins in the lineup.

I hope Matthews gets his 2 goals on Saturday night, then shut him down until the playoffs. You know the two Florida teams will be hacking and slashing their way to the playoffs. Best to keep Matthews healthy, while sending a message to the Florida teams physically. It's time to park Giordano and Brodie for the rest of the year. It's time to figure out the right side of the defense and get some reps in for both Liljegren and Timmins. Brodie does not work on the right side and is a detriment. McCabe should be with Benoit and Boosh should be with Rielly. Figure out who the bottom pair should be with the remaining pieces available. Edmonston should be on the bottom pair with either Liljegren or Timmins in the lineup.
- PrinceLH

I really hope Keefe doesn't just play vets because they are vets

Didn't Matthews score 2 on home ice to secure his first 60 goal season against Detroit? I'd very much like a repeat of that scenario for 70 tomorrow.

What gets me is, we are 31st in pp and these guys have been together, on the pp, for YEARS! Is there a pp in the league where the core have played together more? Clearly the recipe doesn’t work! Change it! Hello!!!
- Bullot

but i thought you hated it when he changes things?

Just a few thoughts

I have like Timmins the last few games
I think Brodie will be out to start the playoffs
Sammy looked like beginning of season Sammy last night
Leafs depth has stepped up.. They have lots of viable options

Last year Florida finished the season like a wrecking ball.. They don't seem to have the same bite right now.. Can they turn it back up for the playoffs? The Leafs are bigger and have a little more pushback will that tip the scales?

Bob has been good but it will be hard to duplicate last years performance.

I like the Leafs as long as our goaltenders holds up.

Nylander he 2pts in his last 8 games and not a peep from any of you..

Except “yEa bUt mArNeRrr dErPy dErP dErP”




The concern here is consistency.

The power-play is 24%. What the hell is everybody complaining about?

I’d be much more concerned about the penalty kill which is bottom third … but the Islanders are the absolute worst in the league and their damn near a playoff team..

Tampa / Fla & Boston however are all top 7 on the PK…so that could definitely be a concern in the 1st round -

Just a few thoughts

I have like Timmins the last few games
I think Brodie will be out to start the playoffs
Sammy looked like beginning of season Sammy last night
Leafs depth has stepped up.. They have lots of viable options

Last year Florida finished the season like a wrecking ball.. They don't seem to have the same bite right now.. Can they turn it back up for the playoffs? The Leafs are bigger and have a little more pushback will that tip the scales?

Bob has been good but it will be hard to duplicate last years performance.

I like the Leafs as long as our goaltenders holds up.
- Azuredoom

I like how the Matthews line reconstruction works. Instead of having a skill guy like Marner, there's less perimeter play. All three on that line control the boards and go to the net with gusto. It's completely different than a year ago. JT's line also has a setup man, with Marner to get him the puck, plus another large left wing presence with McMann who can lean on the defense. The third line is not yet set, but it too will have a top end winger and scoring threat with Nylander. Line 4 is shutdown, but physical. There will be no easy shifts for the Florida defense and over a 7 game series, it could wear down significantly. Leafs need to be patient and target players like Sam Bennett that can elevate their game come playoff time. Keep them off balance and hope you can get a few past their goaltending.

Nylander he 2pts in his last 8 games and not a peep from any of you..

Except “yEa bUt mArNeRrr dErPy dErP dErP”




The concern here is consistency.

i think because they have been winning (6-2), and the lines have been shifted around.
the scoring is being spread around. they dont seem to need to rely on AM/MM/WN carrying the load to get a win.

its nice

Nylander he 2pts in his last 8 games and not a peep from any of you..

Except “yEa bUt mArNeRrr dErPy dErP dErP”




The concern here is consistency.

He's saving himself for the playoffs, where he'll once again be the Leafs most clutch player?

In the case of these two teams, I'm not sure, but when you break it down further, it continues to not discriminate:

Leafs

Home vs. Playoff Teams: 11-8-2 .571
Away vs. Playoff Teams: 7-6-4 .529

Home vs. Non-playoff Teams: 11-7-1 .605
Away vs. Non-playoff teams: 17-3-2 .818

Panthers

Home vs. Playoff Teams: 9-8-0 .529
Away vs. Playoff Teams: 11-6-4 .619

Home vs. Non-playoff Teams: 15-5-1 .727
Away vs. Non-playoff teams: 15-5-0 .750

. . .like ultimately the Panthers are .580 against playoff teams and the Leafs are .553.

I am far less concerned with the home/away ice and far more concerned about our special teams inability to perform of late.

Since March 1st we have the #31 Power Play and the #24 Penalty Kill. That's beyond abysmal and inexcusable with this lineup. And playing against a crappy team with a crappy coach who are missing their star and have nothing to play for - our PP was awful and our PK was worse. They have about a week to figure out what the f*(^ they've done to break it and put it back together.

My bad, I wasn't clear with my requested research. For me, the regular season home/away of these two teams doesn't really matter at all.

What does playoff history tell us, statistically, about the importance of home ice in a game 7 scenario?
- The Law

I don't have a link or anything, but I remember last year the talking heads repeatedly said that in recent years, home ice advantage has meant less and less in the NHL.

i think because they have been wining (6-2), and the lines have been shifted around.
the scoring is being spread around. they dont seem to need to rely on AM/MM/WN carrying the load to get a win.

its nice
- senstroll

Somethings up with him.

I hope he figures it out before the playoffs.

And I especially hope this season wasn’t just a flash in the pan. Because his new contract is based on the expectation that he’ll continue to produce like he did for the first 60 games of this season.

The power-play is 24%. What the hell is everybody complaining about?

I’d be much more concerned about the penalty kill which is bottom third … but the Islanders are the absolute worst in the league and their damn near a playoff team..

Tampa / Fla & Boston however are all top 7 on the PK…so that could definitely be a concern in the 1st round -
- dozerD10

Now look at how it has been over the past two months.

Nylander he 2pts in his last 8 games and not a peep from any of you..

Except “yEa bUt mArNeRrr dErPy dErP dErP”




The concern here is consistency.

I remember everybody yelling pay the man, because he was going to score 130 points. Myself, I said that he'd be lucky to break 100 points. It's easy to run up points early in the season, but another thing to score them in the last 30 games of the schedule when teams get their defensive systems operating. It makes Matthews feat more amazing when you consider his goal scoring streak during the stretch drive. Matthews will certainly not win the Art Ross or the MVP, but should be nominated in the top 3.

wind's au-gustin' in augusta today
- TheMussel

They are saying it's going to get redonkalabonkulously windy late this afternoon.

Maybe it helps Weir make the cut?

Somethings up with him.

I hope he figures it out before the playoffs.

And I especially hope this season wasn’t just a flash in the pan. Because his new contract is based on the expectation that he’ll continue to produce like he did for the first 60 games of this season.
- Arctic_AARDVARK

i wouldnt be concerned, he had a stretch earlier in the season with 4 points in 9 games.

I remember everybody yelling pay the man, because he was going to score 130 points. Myself, I said that he'd be lucky to break 100 points. It's easy to run up points early in the season, but another thing to score them in the last 30 games of the schedule when teams get their defensive systems operating. It makes Matthews feat more amazing when you consider his goal scoring streak during the stretch drive. Matthews will certainly not win the Art Ross or the MVP, but should be nominated in the top 3.
- PrinceLH

I think Willy is burnt out.

He blew his load playing for that contract.

Also he was playing more physical for a stretch of ten games or so, I wonder if he aggregated something, or if that hit he took vs Ottawa rattled him.

I just don’t want this to a conversation we need to keep having about him. So hopefully he wakes up soon.