Clay Brewer: Preds Buyout Duchene

I certainly didn't see this coming.

It would be helpful to have an analysis and a few insights or at least guesses of the reasoning behind this. What's the strategic plan and advantage, especially with the additional retained salary? The buyouts and retained salaries for the four former Preds is significant.

I certainly didn't see this coming.

It would be helpful to have an analysis and a few insights or at least guesses of the reasoning behind this. What's the strategic plan and advantage, especially with the additional retained salary? The buyouts and retained salaries for the four former Preds is significant.
- blueline

I'll have that for you all! I want to put some thought into this too because the numbers alone do not explain it whatsoever.

They're not actually paying him $6 million to not play for them that season. That's just the cap hit. They only pay him $1.55 million a year in actual dollars and save over $10 million. They'll pay him $9.33 million over six years. They were on the hook for $9 million for the 23-24 season, so it makes sense from a real money perspective.

They're tearing everything down, so they're probably not all that worried about cap space for the next few years either.

They're not actually paying him $6 million to not play for them that season. That's just the cap hit. They only pay him $1.55 million a year in actual dollars and save over $10 million. They'll pay him $9.33 million over six years. They were on the hook for $9 million for the 23-24 season, so it makes sense from a real money perspective.

They're tearing everything down, so they're probably not all that worried about cap space for the next few years either.
- Squeaky

Thanks for the clarification. When I'm speaking I like to talk in cap space, not real dollars. I appreciate the feedback!

They're not actually paying him $6 million to not play for them that season. That's just the cap hit. They only pay him $1.55 million a year in actual dollars and save over $10 million. They'll pay him $9.33 million over six years. They were on the hook for $9 million for the 23-24 season, so it makes sense from a real money perspective.

They're tearing everything down, so they're probably not all that worried about cap space for the next few years either.
- Squeaky

True on the actual cash outlay and a good point. Also, cap hit will be mitigated somewhat by a rising Cap over the coming years.

However, even using just the committed real dollars amounts to a substantial total cost for the four players at $4.615M+ for next two seasons, $3.815M+ for '25/'26, $3.555M+ for '26/'27 & '27/'28 with a final $1,555M in '28/'29, the last year of the Duchene buyout.

Preds know things we don't and certainly know what direction they want to take, so I imagine that there is solid reasoning for the move. I just don't know what it is. Was Duchene that much of a liability to the team and its future going forward? The limited No Trade clause was about to kick in but it only allowed for a 7-team no trade list. It wasn't an onerous NTC.

This is insane. It's not like Duchene was lighting the world on fire or anything, but I didn't think he was in 'needs to be gone no matter the cost' territory.

Obviously Duchene and Joey were players Trotz did not envision on his team going forward, and was willing to do what was necessary to move on from them. Something I've been saying for a couple years now would be impossible without going to extremes which... Well, Trotz has just done. Nothing short of a lengthy explanation from the man himself is going to give us any real insight on why he felt these moves were necessary and how he sees them benefiting the team in long run.

I'm assuming we'll get that explanation when he officially takes over tomorrow.

This is insane. It's not like Duchene was lighting the world on fire or anything, but I didn't think he was in 'needs to be gone no matter the cost' territory.

Obviously Duchene and Joey were players Trotz did not envision on his team going forward, and was willing to do what was necessary to move on from them. Something I've been saying for a couple years now would be impossible without going to extremes which... Well, Trotz has just done. Nothing short of a lengthy explanation from the man himself is going to give us any real insight on why he felt these moves were necessary and how he sees them benefiting the team in long run.

I'm assuming we'll get that explanation when he officially takes over tomorrow.
- Squatchy

I believe Barry will be a good bit more transparent than Poile in regard to big decisions like this. It’s looking more and more like a full-blown rebuild. It wouldn’t surprise me at all if Saros gets moved at the trade deadline.

I don’t think you will ever know the “true” reasoning behind a number of the current moves… or more to come?
There was truly “something” going on with this team whether locker room, Hynes, etc.. We had too many good players with good paychecks not to transition to wins on the ice.

I believe Barry will be a good bit more transparent than Poile in regard to big decisions like this. It’s looking more and more like a full-blown rebuild. It wouldn’t surprise me at all if Saros gets moved at the trade deadline.
- Polecat

I'd hate to see either go, but I tend to agree that I'd much rather cash-in on Saros and let him shine elsewhere than to let go of Askarov. Those rumors pre-frat concerned me. Glad they didn't come to fruition.

It appears that neither Cal Foote nor Ramus Asplund received qualifying offers, so apparently they are on the free agent market.

RFA's Carrier and Glass have rec qualifying offers so are both arbitration eligible assuming it comes to that.

I find it interesting that there is not yet anything about Duchene or the RFA's on the Preds website. I guess they're still languishing in the Draft aftermath which, I might add, appeared to be a success for the team and the city. I was there for the 1st Round - a fun experience.

RFA's Carrier and Glass have rec qualifying offers so are both arbitration eligible assuming it comes to that.

I find it interesting that there is not yet anything about Duchene or the RFA's on the Preds website. I guess they're still languishing in the Draft aftermath which, I might add, appeared to be a success for the team and the city. I was there for the 1st Round - a fun experience.
- blueline

Glass will get signed, doubt it comes to arbitration. Carrier could push but I bet he tried to solidify a job too considering he hasn't performed as many hoped. The website is always a bit behind but social media Preds is all over it. Trotz submitted a PR statement via Preds twitter earlier today. https://twitter.com/Preds...74867373428334606/photo/1

Stupid move and clearly one of an in experienced gm. Clearly you have an asset that has value, and even if you retained 4m of his salary that’s 4m x 3 years vs the insane buy out. That might even get you a return when clubs are up against the cap that has remained flat.
Horrible terrible move it will haunt this team for years.

Stupid move and clearly one of an in experienced gm. Clearly you have an asset that has value, and even if you retained 4m of his salary that’s 4m x 3 years vs the insane buy out. That might even get you a return when clubs are up against the cap that has remained flat.
Horrible terrible move it will haunt this team for years.
- petrillata

The buyout is $9.33M cash over 6-years, not $20M. For reference, that $9.33M is considerably less than your hypothetical $12M scenario of the Preds retaining $4M salary for each of 3-yrs.

Also, his salary for '23/'24 alone is $9M, nearly half of what's remaining on the final 3-years of his contract.

The actual cash that the Preds will have to pay for '23/'24 is $1,555,556 vs a $9,000,000 salary & bonus that would have been paid for the upcoming season had they not bought out Duchene.

Out of curiosity, I used the buyout calculator to determine what the cap hits would've been if Trotz had waited until next Summer to buy him out:

24-25: $5,166,667
25-26: $6,166,667
26-27: $1,166,667
27-28: $1,166,667

Basically, he would've saved only $400,000 in cap space in each year and then $1,566,667 in 28-29 vs just buying him out now. In other words, waiting until next Summer to buy him out wouldn't have saved all that much cap space, while costing ownership $9M more (what Duchene was due in salary this upcoming season).

Stupid move and clearly one of an in experienced gm. Clearly you have an asset that has value, and even if you retained 4m of his salary that’s 4m x 3 years vs the insane buy out. That might even get you a return when clubs are up against the cap that has remained flat.
Horrible terrible move it will haunt this team for years.
- petrillata

It always boggles my mind that people think the GMs don't try all the options before they get to the buyout. Obviously, he would have been trying to see if anyone was interested in Duchene and probably would've retained 50% if there was a decent return.

If Duchene is able to get a 3 or more-year deal for 5 million a year or more, then yeah, it was a terrible move.

Out of curiosity, I used the buyout calculator to determine what the cap hits would've been if Trotz had waited until next Summer to buy him out:

24-25: $5,166,667
25-26: $6,166,667
26-27: $1,166,667
27-28: $1,166,667

Basically, he would've saved only $400,000 in cap space in each year and then $1,566,667 in 28-29 vs just buying him out now. In other words, waiting until next Summer to buy him out wouldn't have saved all that much cap space, while costing ownership $9M more (what Duchene was due in salary this upcoming season).
- Osprey

The biggest thing that today would have changed in the event we kept him would be his MNTC. Well said, on the ownership front. There's no one reason behind this move. Thanks for providing these additional details, Osprey!

The buyout is $9.33M cash over 6-years, not $20M. For reference, that $9.33M is considerably less that your hypothetical $12M scenario of the Preds retaining $4M salary for each of 3-yrs.

Also, his salary for '23/'24 alone is $9M, nearly half of what's remaining on the final 3-years of his contract.

The actual cash that the Preds will have to pay for '23/'24 is $1,555,556 vs a $9,000,000 salary & bonus that would have been paid for the upcoming season had they not bought out Duchene.
- blueline

Well said, blueline. The total amount owed Duchene is $20m. $6m in signing bonuses, thus they are owed and not impacted by the buyout. The remaining $14m is subject to the buyout formula. Because of his age (over 26) he is owed 2/3 of this remaining amount. $9m and change over the next 6 years (because there are 3 years remaining on his deal). Preds ownership save roughly $4.6m in real dollars through this buyout.