Bob Duff: Cholowski needs to make it happen When the Detroit Red Wings opted to take right wing Flilp Zadina instead of a defenseman with the sixth pick of the 2018 NHL entry draft, they put all their future puck-moving eggs into Dennis Cholowski's basket.

Yes, they need him badly.

“That’s the goal, is the Red Wings this year,” Cholowski said. “I’m going to do everything I can to do it.”

If it doesn’t happen and Cholowski is assigned to Grand Rapids, the panic button, for which the mechanism always seems to be primed in this so-called Hockeytown, will most certainly be activated.

Wrong.

He's 20 years old.

Not quite the year to panic.

need someone who back there who can make a difference. Cuz the sad collection of useless players they have back there now is outright poop!

My expectations of him were never high and i don't expect him to make the team this season either.

This article should be about Hronek as he's the one i expect to show he can play in the NHL. Defensemen don't often go from the CHL to the NHL. I expect him and Hicketts to be the ones pushing for a full time job with the Wings this season.

My expectations of him were never high and i don't expect him to make the team this season either.

This article should be about Hronek as he's the one i expect to show he can play in the NHL. Defensemen don't often go from the CHL to the NHL. I expect him and Hicketts to be the ones pushing for a full time job with the Wings this season.
- dcz28

This

Yeah. I thought it was expected Cholowski would need a year, at least, in the ahl

My expectations of him were never high and i don't expect him to make the team this season either.

This article should be about Hronek as he's the one i expect to show he can play in the NHL. Defensemen don't often go from the CHL to the NHL. I expect him and Hicketts to be the ones pushing for a full time job with the Wings this season.
- dcz28

Although not a true prospect don't forget about Sulak.

Exactly, I'm not sure why all Detroit media value Cholo more than Hronek. So far Hronek is making better progress in his development and I hope he'll become steal of that draft class. Wings desperately need that..

Duff has terrible takes when he isn't copying and pasting

Team is reallt just starting the rebuild. They got a great piece in Zadina, draft really bounced their way. Still going to take another year or two of high draft picks before they can reemerge.

Exactly, I'm not sure why all Detroit media value Cholo more than Hronek. So far Hronek is making better progress in his development and I hope he'll become steal of that draft class. Wings desperately need that..
- Mozgoid34

Not that I'm a mind reader, but I always assumed a lot of these story angles are dictated more by "Who was I able to get the most usable quotes from?" and less by "What is the most insightful or valuable analysis I can provide as an independent observer?"

Although not a true prospect don't forget about Sulak.
- Feds91Stammer

Yeah Sulak is a bit of a wild card. He's a bit older and has some experience playing against men but doesn't have a lot of experience playing on N.A smaller ice i don't think.

I'm just hoping Holland doesn't add 2 UFA defensemen. I think he will add one for sure but i hope he doesn't go nuts and add two thinking that will fix the defense.

Yeah Sulak is a bit of a wild card. He's a bit older and has some experience playing against men but doesn't have a lot of experience playing on N.A smaller ice i don't think.

I'm just hoping Holland doesn't add 2 UFA defensemen. I think he will add one for sure but i hope he doesn't go nuts and add two thinking that will fix the defense.
- dcz28

Wildcard is definitely a good word here. Sulak is intriguing just because he's come so far so suddenly and unexpectedly.

He went undrafted, and barely a year ago he was 23 years old and just had an "okay" season in a league (Austria/EBEL) that is pretty solidly in the third tier of European competition -- well behind the KHL, Sweden, Finland, and Swiss NLA, probably behind the Czech and German leagues as well, and likely more even with the Swedish and Russian minor leagues.

... Then he went out and finished second in the Finnish league in points per game by a defenseman. The only guy to barely edge him out was last year's No. 3 pick (Miro Heiskanen), who only played 30 games.

Is he a late bloomer with NHL potential or did he just have a great flash in the pan season? Will his game translate to NHL ice? I honestly have no clue. Will be interesting to find out.

LeBrun saying we are likely where Bernier ends up.

.914 career sv%

.915 for Howard for reference

Hopefully it is short and cheap.

LeBrun saying we are likely where Bernier ends up.

.914 career sv%

.915 for Howard for reference

Hopefully it is short and cheap.
- Feds91Stammer

He’d be a solid signing. As good as you can do in free agency. Could allow them to trade Howard if Bernier is any good

He’d be a solid signing. As good as you can do in free agency. Could allow them to trade Howard if Bernier is any good
- datswho

Bernier is aggressively average. He'll also be 30 at the start of next season, which is ... not good, but could be much worse.

I guess this one gets a shrug from me. Bernier falls into that awkward "1B" gap. He's arguably too good to be a pure backup, since most teams that already have a good starter aren't going to want to spend $3 to $4 million on a guy who is only going to make 15-20 starts. On the other hand, he's not good enough (and at this point too old anyway) to want to have as your main guy unless it's a very short-term assignment.

Basically his ideal situation is to competently keep a crease warm for 30-35 games while some other guy who is not that much better than him keeps it warm the other 45-50. Which is obviously not really any team's idea of a long-term solution.

But considering the Red Wings currently have no long-term solutions and no obvious plan to get there? Whatever. I'm not crazy about giving him 3 years and $3+ million, however, which is what I guess he'd get (especially in this market).

Bernier is aggressively average. He'll also be 30 at the start of next season, which is ... not good, but could be much worse.

I guess this one gets a shrug from me. Bernier falls into that awkward "1B" gap. He's arguably too good to be a pure backup, since most teams that already have a good starter aren't going to want to spend $3 to $4 million on a guy who is only going to make 15-20 starts. On the other hand, he's not good enough (and at this point too old anyway) to want to have as your main guy unless it's a very short-term assignment.

Basically his ideal situation is to competently keep a crease warm for 30-35 games while some other guy who is not that much better than him keeps it warm the other 45-50. Which is obviously not really any team's idea of a long-term solution.

But considering the Red Wings currently have no long-term solutions and no obvious plan to get there? Whatever. I'm not crazy about giving him 3 years and $3+ million, however, which is what I guess he'd get (especially in this market).
- Sven22

From Matt Cane's projection model:

Jonathan Bernier G UFA 2 $3,116,495

https://docs.google.com/s...386jVESKSOf0V4/edit#gid=0

I would be fine with that.

From Matt Cane's projection model:

Jonathan Bernier G UFA 2 $3,116,495

https://docs.google.com/s...386jVESKSOf0V4/edit#gid=0

I would be fine with that.
- Feds91Stammer

I'm not that familiar with Cane's projections but would be interested in seeing how his model operates. What seems fishy to me is that the predicted AAV continues to increase with contract length up to 5-6 years for all players and then declines slightly, regardless of age or contract status.

Like take Joe Thornton. He's 38, and yet somehow the model says there's a 12 percent change he'll sign a 7-year deal, and the predicted AAV for a 7-year deal ($6.6 million) is higher than the predicted AAV for a 1-year deal ($5.4 million). Or take Green -- any model that thinks the most likely AAV for him on a 1-year deal is $3.4 million, but that goes up to $3.8, then $4.6, then $5.6, then $5.7 as you add years to the term length obviously fails the common sense test in a massive way.

At any rate, I agree that ~$3 million for Bernier on a two year deal is not something that I would waste time complaining about.

I'm not that familiar with Cane's projections but would be interested in seeing how his model operates. What seems fishy to me is that the predicted AAV continues to increase with contract length up to 5-6 years for all players and then declines slightly, regardless of age or contract status.

Like take Joe Thornton. He's 38, and yet somehow the model says there's a 12 percent change he'll sign a 7-year deal, and the predicted AAV for a 7-year deal ($6.6 million) is higher than the predicted AAV for a 1-year deal ($5.4 million). Or take Green -- any model that thinks the most likely AAV for him on a 1-year deal is $3.4 million, but that goes up to $3.8, then $4.6, then $5.6, then $5.7 as you add years to the term length obviously fails the common sense test in a massive way.

At any rate, I agree that ~$3 million for Bernier on a two year deal is not something that I would waste time complaining about.
- Sven22

Yeah I am not sure on the theory behind the model. I am sure he has a write up somewhere. I do know he is generally pretty close.

Dont get excited over these prospects anymore (except if its a blue chip like Larkin, Rasmussen , Zadina). Seen too many come and go especially on defense.