Trevor Shackles: Thursday Think Tank Thoughts on the draft, Erik Karlsson, the NHL Awards, and future trades

Not sure why you'd say Karlsson is probably on the way out. He's a franchise player & more than likely is a yuuge $$$ spinner in merchandise. That should keep management happy on that side of things. Then there's the hockey side. If he wants to stay then won't your gm keep him? To think that the team won't have a player like Karlsson to get the team through this period when they have the option to would be risky.

I get that trading him will get a good return, but that could also kill a large part of any support that remains.

If he wants to stay then won't your gm keep him? To think that the team won't have a player like Karlsson to get the team through this period when they have the option to would be risky.
I get that trading him will get a good return, but that could also kill a large part of any support that remains.
- Aussiepenguin

I agree that they should make every effort to sign Karlsson - however, the first part of your statement is just not in the team's control. Now they did send a message in taking a hit to resolve the Hoffman situation quickly, but what Karlsson's motivations and preferences are at this point are hard to say. Regardless, I think there's a lot of pressure on Dorion to make Karlsson turn down an objectively good contract extension offer on July 1st prior to trading him away.

As for picking at #4, I think you have to keep that pick. Trolls can talk about the 2019 pick turning into Jack Hughes all they want, but the odds are against next year's pick even being in the top-3, let alone the #1 pick. Not to mention that effectively betting against your own team would be an absolutely terrible message for the organization to send to their players and fans. Plus, if Zadina does fall to #4, that could help things quite a bit given that he's one of the more NHL-ready prospects in the draft and could positively impact the situation right out of the gate next season.

I agree that they should make every effort to sign Karlsson - however, the first part of your statement is just not in the team's control. Now they did send a message in taking a hit to resolve the Hoffman situation quickly, but what Karlsson's motivations and preferences are at this point are hard to say. Regardless, I think there's a lot of pressure on Dorion to make Karlsson turn down an objectively good contract extension offer on July 1st prior to trading him away.

As for picking at #4, I think you have to keep that pick. Trolls can talk about the 2019 pick turning into Jack Hughes all they want, but the odds are against next year's pick even being in the top-3, let alone the #1 pick. Not to mention that effectively betting against your own team would be an absolutely terrible message for the organization to send to their players and fans. Plus, if Zadina does fall to #4, that could help things quite a bit given that he's one of the more NHL-ready prospects in the draft and could positively impact the situation right out of the gate next season.
- khawk

I think the Hoffman trade speaks volumes on where the organisation is at. I think Karlsson gave them a deadline to pick either him or Hoffman, & they traded Hoffman as quickly as they could to show their hand.

I wonder of Karlsson was traded, would Hoffman still be in a Sens uniform?

Wilde or Sandin at 22 would be great if we go Zadina/ a forward at 4.

If the Senators draft Zadina, and are able to resign Karlsson, it would be hard to believe that they would finish at the very bottom of the standings.

If the Senators draft Zadina, and are able to resign Karlsson, it would be hard to believe that they would finish at the very bottom of the standings.
- jvar17

True. Karlsson and Zadina alone may be enough to ensure Sens finish ahead of the Habs....

True. Karlsson and Zadina alone may be enough to ensure Sens finish ahead of the Habs....
- hawk35

What about the Red Wings? They have no defence....

And let's be honest, the same Sens team reached the conference final the year before. If they keep the band together (only excluding Hoffman) and our goalie tandem is slightly better we should finish somewhere between 20 and 25.

True. Karlsson and Zadina alone may be enough to ensure Sens finish ahead of the Habs....

If the Carey Price of old is back to himself... then the Habs will be a much improved team.

Also... hard to predict as the draft, free agency, and trades over the summer could change the landscape a lot.

From the outside looking in i think I would send the 2018 pick to Colorado. Reason being, that if i am moving karlsson i need to be getting at least a 2018 1st rounder back in any deal. In this draft I don't see a huge difference in skills from 4-25 picks. A lot depends on team needs. I would take my chance at Hughes next year.

What about the Red Wings? They have no defence....

And let's be honest, the same Sens team reached the conference final the year before. If they keep the band together (only excluding Hoffman) and our goalie tandem is slightly better we should finish somewhere between 20 and 25.
- DutchSenators

Rangers could be pretty bad too.

I am not so sure about keeping this year's pick... Jack Hughes aside, don't you have to at least consider who will be in the 2-5 range next year? Are they projected to be as impactful as Tkchuk, Zadina etc.?

If Karlsson is moved pre-draft (big IF) you'd have to think Ottawa would draft 1-4 next year. If those players are comparable to Tkchuk, Zadina etc then what's the downside of cutting bait thios year? The upside is Hughes. Fans are likely gonna stay away in droves this season regardless.

Also very disappointed in the lack of Ottawa news yesterday. I thought for sure they'd be involved in some sort of negative PR fiasco. Big void in my day. Every other day for the last month or so has been just fine.

Maybe it's just blind hope- but I think all of what's happened this week is just making room for Karlsson. I know that the perfect situation would be Melnyk announcing the sale (or anticipated sale) of the franchise, and then a Karlsson extension. Again- dream world.

However, if you aren't getting picks in THIS year's draft- what's the point of trading Karlsson before July 1? Simply from a PR standpoint, even if you give Karlsson a lowball offer, at least from the public's eye- you tried. If you trade him before that happens, it's just another PR disaster, and probably the final straw for a large contingent of casual Sens fans (of which there are a ton).

Teams like Vegas who are rumoured to be front runners don't even have a 1st rounder this year, so why do you need to make this trade right now? I get that the media is all horny to have rumours and speculation to talk about, but logistically I don't think it really makes sense.

As someone mentioned- if you bring in Zadina, bring back Karlsson, re-sign Stone and bring some of the young guys up to play (Batherson, Brown, Formenton, White)- I can't see Ottawa diving down to the bottom 3.

It makes zero sense to give up a guaranteed top 5 pick.

To bring things full circle to my first statement- the absolute worst case scenario would be to trade Karlsson, give Colorado this year's pick.

At that point, you're basically telling Sens fans that yes, the rebuild is on- but this next season is going to be a complete write off. Think you had trouble selling seats in a season after they went to game 7 of a conference final? Attendance would hit AZ/Carolina levels.

If Melnyk is keeping the team, there is zero chance he pulls the trigger on that.

But then again- this is the 2018 Ottawa Senators, so who the (frank) knows.

Ottawa should keep the pick and use it to select Zadina or Tkachuk.

At number 22 they should pick a defenceman.

I'm fine with moving out some players that are not expected to be big contributors in 3 years time. The addition of Boedker in the Hoffman trade is the thing that does not make much sense here. There would be no issues getting to the cap floor - just trade for Hossa - $1M salary on long term injury with over $5M cap hit.

I know at the time of the trade it was a confusing mess and didn't understand it, but looking back at the Matt Duchense trade now...it's more confusing and could be one of the dumbest trades ever.


NASHVILLE
Samuel Girard, Vladislav Kamenev, 2018 2nd for Kyle Turris

COLORADO
Matt Duchene for Samuel Girard, Vladislav Kamenev, Andrew Hammond, 2018/2019 1st, 2019 3rd, Shane Bowers

OTTAWA
Kyle Turris, Andrew Hammond, 2018/2019 1st, 2019 3rd, Shane Bowers for Matt Duchense

Nashville makes sense. They had to give up some prospect for depth at center.

Colorado makes TONS of sense. They had to move Duchense, no we could still keep him, they had no choice and would think some lost leverage. Nope, tons of value even if prospects don't work out.

Ottawa? Am I missing something from the trade, is that really all they got was Duchense? Scared of losing Turris after the year, so they trade him for a player who walks in one freakin' year. Take away that 1st round pick and the trade still looks terrible.

Oh I found this gem:
"I'm extremely grateful for my years in Colorado. It was my favorite team as a kid and it was an absolute honor and privilege to play here. It's bittersweet for sure, but I'm excited for a new opportunity in Ottawa. It'll be amazing to be close to home. They've got a team that can win a Stanley Cup. I'm really excited to go there and just nothing but a pleasure to have played here for Colorado." - Matt Duchense

Yes, he really said that.

I know at the time of the trade it was a confusing mess and didn't understand it, but looking back at the Matt Duchense trade now...it's more confusing and could be one of the dumbest trades ever.


NASHVILLE
Samuel Girard, Vladislav Kamenev, 2018 2nd for Kyle Turris

COLORADO
Matt Duchene for Samuel Girard, Vladislav Kamenev, Andrew Hammond, 2018/2019 1st, 2019 3rd, Shane Bowers

OTTAWA
Kyle Turris, Andrew Hammond, 2018/2019 1st, 2019 3rd, Shane Bowers for Matt Duchense

Nashville makes sense. They had to give up some prospect for depth at center.

Colorado makes TONS of sense. They had to move Duchense, no we could still keep him, they had no choice and would think some lost leverage. Nope, tons of value even if prospects don't work out.

Ottawa? Am I missing something from the trade, is that really all they got was Duchense? Scared of losing Turris after the year, so they trade him for a player who walks in one freakin' year. Take away that 1st round pick and the trade still looks terrible.

Oh I found this gem:
"I'm extremely grateful for my years in Colorado. It was my favorite team as a kid and it was an absolute honor and privilege to play here. It's bittersweet for sure, but I'm excited for a new opportunity in Ottawa. It'll be amazing to be close to home. They've got a team that can win a Stanley Cup. I'm really excited to go there and just nothing but a pleasure to have played here for Colorado." - Matt Duchense

Yes, he really said that.
- Glak18

To be fair, at the time he was traded, they did. They were about 6 months removed from being in the Eastern conference final....

Take it for what it's worth, but the talk from the Ottawa development community is that Cirque de Soliel is waiting in the wings until EM makes a few more subtractions and then will take over. According to the sources, it's just a matter of time.

Take it for what it's worth, but the talk from the Ottawa development community is that Cirque de Soliel is waiting in the wings until EM makes a few more subtractions and then will take over. According to the sources, it's just a matter of time.
- JACMAN

Yeah, this is the worst kept secret in the city- we're all just hopeful that this kind of happens before Karlsson walks out the door.

Or we're hopeful that Karlsson resigns and understands that this sale is inevitable.

They better hit big on a Karlsson trade if moved. Because if the use the 4 pick this season, and then somehow win the lottery next year they could lose out on Hughes and also lose Duchene.

They better hit big on a Karlsson trade if moved. Because if the use the 4 pick this season, and then somehow win the lottery next year they could lose out on Hughes and also lose Duchene.
- J35Bacher

Maybe the NHL needs to implement a veto system for trades, to stop teams from intentionally ruining a franchise.

Ottawa would need a Lindros type package for EK65 just to get back to square one.

Yeah, this is the worst kept secret in the city- we're all just hopeful that this kind of happens before Karlsson walks out the door.

Or we're hopeful that Karlsson resigns and understands that this sale is inevitable.
- Jordo

Let's hope the league ensures the team doesn't move to Quebec city (maybe I'm being paranoid)

Bettman said the Sen's were unlikely to move, and we know Montreal wouldn't want another team in their backyard.

Maybe the NHL needs to implement a veto system for trades, to stop teams from intentionally ruining a franchise.

Ottawa would need a Lindros type package for EK65 just to get back to square one.
- Glak18

If Karlsson is traded they'd need to rebuild, which is hard without their first round pick next year.

Duchene and Karlsson would both garner a fair amount of return if they were both traded, even at teh deadline.

If they can get Glass/1st (wishful thinking) out of Vegas, that'd be a good start though.

Let's hope the league ensures the team doesn't move to Quebec city (maybe I'm being paranoid)

Bettman said the Sen's were unlikely to move, and we know Montreal wouldn't want another team in their backyard.
- david22

If the rumours are true and the Cirque/Desmarais group is waiting and ready to buy- they would 100% keep it in Ottawa as opposed to move the franchise.

If Karlsson is traded they'd need to rebuild, which is hard without their first round pick next year.

Duchene and Karlsson would both garner a fair amount of return if they were both traded, even at teh deadline.

If they can get Glass/1st (wishful thinking) out of Vegas, that'd be a good start though.
- david22

IF Karlsson is traded, it better be to Colorado to get our 1st back. The whole Duchesne trade would look even worse- but if you were able to extract some more pieces from Colorado while getting our 1st back- that's a move I can get behind- again- that's IF you feel you need to trade Karlsson.

IF Karlsson is traded, it better be to Colorado to get our 1st back. The whole Duchesne trade would look even worse- but if you were able to extract some more pieces from Colorado while getting our 1st back- that's a move I can get behind- again- that's IF you feel you need to trade Karlsson.
- Jordo

Colorado might not want to make such a trade.

Vegas seems very interested though.[/img]