Sheng Peng: What Does 400 Wins Mean?

good goalie

Interesting math (quick and dirty as it is). I said the same thing about Brodeur breaking Parent's single-season wins record; take away every shootout win and Parent still holds the record.

As for Fleury, my issue with him has been that, over his career, he's been very good but wildly inconsistent. When he's at the top of his game, he's an elite goalie who can steal you a series win (Pens/Caps 2017) and is good enough to lead a great team to a Cup (Pens 2009). However, he's prone to long stretches ranging from below average to abysmal (Pens playoffs 2012-2014). While no goalie brings his A-game every game, I think Fleury's numbers, aside from wins (which is as much of a team stat as a goalie stat), have never been upper-echelon enough to put him in the HHOF. To me, getting into the HHOF means that you were an elite performer at your position for at least 5 years, and very good (on average) for the bulk of your career. If we're going to use wins and Cup rings as the measuring stick, then it's time that Chris Osgood gets elected to the HHOF.

Interesting math (quick and dirty as it is). I said the same thing about Brodeur breaking Parent's single-season wins record; take away every shootout win and Parent still holds the record.

As for Fleury, my issue with him has been that, over his career, he's been very good but wildly inconsistent. When he's at the top of his game, he's an elite goalie who can steal you a series win (Pens/Caps 2017) and is good enough to lead a great team to a Cup (Pens 2009). However, he's prone to long stretches ranging from below average to abysmal (Pens playoffs 2012-2014). While no goalie brings his A-game every game, I think Fleury's numbers, aside from wins (which is as much of a team stat as a goalie stat), have never been upper-echelon enough to put him in the HHOF. To me, getting into the HHOF means that you were an elite performer at your position for at least 5 years, and very good (on average) for the bulk of your career. If we're going to use wins and Cup rings as the measuring stick, then it's time that Chris Osgood gets elected to the HHOF.
- jmatchett383

This is a fair assessment.

Interesting math (quick and dirty as it is). I said the same thing about Brodeur breaking Parent's single-season wins record; take away every shootout win and Parent still holds the record.

As for Fleury, my issue with him has been that, over his career, he's been very good but wildly inconsistent. When he's at the top of his game, he's an elite goalie who can steal you a series win (Pens/Caps 2017) and is good enough to lead a great team to a Cup (Pens 2009). However, he's prone to long stretches ranging from below average to abysmal (Pens playoffs 2012-2014). While no goalie brings his A-game every game, I think Fleury's numbers, aside from wins (which is as much of a team stat as a goalie stat), have never been upper-echelon enough to put him in the HHOF. To me, getting into the HHOF means that you were an elite performer at your position for at least 5 years, and very good (on average) for the bulk of your career. If we're going to use wins and Cup rings as the measuring stick, then it's time that Chris Osgood gets elected to the HHOF.
- jmatchett383

It was after this time period he started seeing the sports psychologist and had the goalie coach change in the Burgh. He was pretty much constantly solid after these changes. There's no other goalie in the league Id want more on the PK. For whatever reasons his PK numbers are crazy good.

It was after this time period he started seeing the sports psychologist and had the goalie coach change in the Burgh. He was pretty much constantly solid after these changes. There's no other goalie in the league Id want more on the PK. For whatever reasons his PK numbers are crazy good.
- MattStrat

I won't take that away from him (the PK). However, last year, when he was the backup/1B with Murray, he had a pretty bad year. Surprisingly, his numbers were BETTER in his first relief starts than they were in subsequent games (i.e. if he played 5 games in a row, his numbers in the first game were the best), so the whole "coming in cold" part wasn't true. Still, a very good goalie overall, but not a HHOFer, to me.

Good read, thanks Sheng

Performing calculations like this is interesting and is a better way to compare goalies across eras than by using raw win totals alone. But that's also kind of like saying that if you're going to drop something on your foot, it's better to use a full jar of salsa than a bowling ball.

It sidesteps the bigger issue, which is that wins are fundamentally a poor way to compare two goalies in the first place. Even if you account for season length and overtime rules (which is better than nothing), you're still not accounting for team strength, which also has an outsize influence on win totals and is essentially out of a goalie's control.

Good read, thanks Sheng
- Crushers68

Thanks!

To me, getting into the HHOF means that you were an elite performer at your position for at least 5 years, and very good (on average) for the bulk of your career. If we're going to use wins and Cup rings as the measuring stick, then it's time that Chris Osgood gets elected to the HHOF.
- jmatchett383

Agree with bulk of what you said. Personally, doesn't even have to be five years. With Flower's career numbers, I'd take even a couple seasons of "elite" work. A couple Vezina noms would've gone a long way.

There's no other goalie in the league Id want more on the PK. For whatever reasons his PK numbers are crazy good.
- MattStrat

Ooh, good story idea! Thanks!

It sidesteps the bigger issue, which is that wins are fundamentally a poor way to compare two goalies in the first place. Even if you account for season length and overtime rules (which is better than nothing), you're still not accounting for team strength, which also has an outsize influence on win totals and is essentially out of a goalie's control.
- Sven22

100% agree. For me, the story was just a brain exercise to try to measure how much wins have become devalued since 2005-06.

Victories are a poor judge of who is a deserving HOF'er, but of course, voters do use these figures when making their calls.

Thanks!
100% agree. For me, the story was just a brain exercise to try to measure how much wins have become devalued since 2005-06.

Victories are a poor judge of who is a deserving HOF'er, but of course, voters do use these figures when making their calls.
- Sheng.Peng

Fair, and it's a good exercise to undertake, especially for those who haven't even really begun to grapple with the numbers in a more rigorous sort of way. Everyone starts somewhere on their path to enlightenment! There was a time not too long ago that I would have been on the "Osgood belongs in the Hall" team ...