Bob Duff: Blashill Gets Why You Don't Get It Detroit Red Wings coach Jeff Blashill began the first practice post all-star game by outlining to his team what they have to do to make the playoffs. And yes, he understands why you are shaking your head in disbelief.

“I know we have the players to do it,” Blashill said

I didn't know weed was legal in Detroit or maybe Blashill just made a trip to Denver during the all star break.

It's definitely true if it's mathematically possible then it can be done. I always look at the potential a great run can have. In saying that, this season just looks like every team can look at what's in front of them & say the same thing - oh, except Buffalo!

The comp is just so compressed up top with more than enough teams - good teams, that the usual blurb might just be a little far to reach. Detroit need other teams to falter as well - teams above them & close to them. Can/will that happen?

Blashill needs a job, so he is counting on history to give his employment hopes a lift! I honestly thought you guys could be a dark horse.

"Blashill gets why you don't believe him".... Track record? Watching games? Ice time assignments? Oh no, I've become the broken record!

If we want to talk about "mathetmatical possibilities," then by all means, let's be mathematical about it.

The projected threshold to make the playoffs in the East is a shade over 91 points, with a ~95% chance that it falls somewhere between 88 and 95. Of course we won't know exactly how many points will be needed until the last day of the season.

To get to 88 (6% calculated chance of making the playoffs per SportsClubStats), the Wings would need 42 points - that's 8 more wins than regulation losses the rest of the way (for example, 19-11-4 or 20-12-2). That translates to a 101-point pace over 82 games. And remember, even if they do this, they're still more than 15 times more likely to miss the playoffs than make it (94% vs 6%).

To get to 91 (45% chance), the Wings would need 45 points, or 11 more wins than regulation losses (for example, 20-9-5). That is 109-point pace over 82 games. And they'd still miss more than half the time in this scenario.

To get to 95 (97% chance), they need 49 points, or 15 more wins than regulation losses (for example, 23-8-3). That is a 118-point pace, which would have been good enough to win the President's Trophy in 8 of the 11 full seasons played since the shootout was introduced (and will likely be good enough this year too). And even if they play this well, making the playoffs still isn't a guarantee (3% chance to miss).

So Blashill's right, they still can make the playoffs. All that needs to happen is either:

1) A team with only 32 regulation wins in their last 130 games suddenly and without warning plays like a solid-to-very-good playoff team the rest of the way AND gets a super duper duper crapload of help from the teams they're trailing, or

2) That same team suddenly plays like the 1984 Oilers for the next 34 games.

Is it possible? Sure, even relatively lousy teams can get hot and go on unsustainable runs over a quarter of a season or more. In the last decade or so we've seen Ottawa, Minny, Philly, Colorado do it.

But read over that list of teams again. Anything strike you about them? Oh yeah, they were all somewhere between fairly average and deeply crappy teams immediately before, immediately after, and even several years after their improbable runs. So even if the Red Wings do complely luck their way into the playoffs, what exactly are they going to accomplish? None of the team's structural problems will be solved. If anything it just means Holland is more likely to come back for another year and keep kicking the can down the road.

If we want to talk about "mathetmatical possibilities," then by all means, let's be mathematical about it.

The projected threshold to make the playoffs in the East is a shade over 91 points, with a ~95% chance that it falls somewhere between 88 and 95. Of course we won't know exactly how many points will be needed until the last day of the season.

To get to 88 (6% calculated chance of making the playoffs per SportsClubStats), the Wings would need 42 points - that's 8 more wins than regulation losses the rest of the way (for example, 19-11-4 or 20-12-2). That translates to a 101-point pace over 82 games. And remember, even if they do this, they're still more than 15 times more likely to miss the playoffs than make it (94% vs 6%).

To get to 91 (45% chance), the Wings would need 45 points, or 11 more wins than regulation losses (for example, 20-9-5). That is 109-point pace over 82 games. And they'd still miss more than half the time in this scenario.

To get to 95 (97% chance), they need 49 points, or 15 more wins than regulation losses (for example, 23-8-3). That is a 118-point pace, which would have been good enough to win the President's Trophy in 8 of the 11 full seasons played since the shootout was introduced (and will likely be good enough this year too). And even if they play this well, making the playoffs still isn't a guarantee (3% chance to miss).

So Blashill's right, they still can make the playoffs. All that needs to happen is either:

1) A team with only 32 regulation wins in their last 130 games suddenly and without warning plays like a solid-to-very-good playoff team the rest of the way AND gets a super duper duper crapload of help from the teams they're trailing, or

2) That same team suddenly plays like the 1984 Oilers for the next 34 games.

Is it possible? Sure, even relatively lousy teams can get hot and go on unsustainable runs over a quarter of a season or more. In the last decade or so we've seen Ottawa, Minny, Philly, Colorado do it.

But read over that list of teams again. Anything strike you about them? Oh yeah, they were all somewhere between fairly average and deeply crappy teams immediately before, immediately after, and even several years after their improbable runs. So even if the Red Wings do complely luck their way into the playoffs, what exactly are they going to accomplish? None of the team's structural problems will be solved. If anything it just means Holland is more likely to come back for another year and keep kicking the can down the road.
- Sven22

You've done your homework, and you aren't wrong. But admitting the season is done and selling off assets is apparent, Blash still wants butts in seats.....So unrealistic optimism is all that remains.