James Tanner: Caps Heading for Disappointing Second Half

A blog about luck and you didn’t mention the Penguins? Shocking!

You pick them to miss the playoffs, state they are 100% in the playoffs now and then say you don't care about being right. If only you knew what humble pie tastes like.

"But I don't care about being right ..."

Hahahaha.....thank god

So they should hire Chayka to turn things around for them??

- Next season is going to feature them being the best team in the NHL, despite some obvious changes. OV, Backstrom, Kuznetsov, Orlov, Niskanen, Carlson, Burakovsky, Johansson and Holtby is still probably the single best core of players in the NHL.
- james_tanner1

http://www.hockeybuzz.com/blog.php?post_id=85310

I'm puzzled why our blogger Jimmy didn't see the collapse of the Capitals coming.

But to recap:

Last year, the Capitals were the best team in the league, because the regular season is the best indicator of talent. Losing in the playoffs is nothing but bad luck.

This year, the Capitals are the best team in their division (3rd in the league) but even that is simply due to luck.

I really wonder why anybody even plays the games anymore - whether it's good luck or bad luck, talent and results don't seem to matter.

This blog makes no sense. Any Caps blog that matters talks about how they are overachieving. Yet, Tanner will tell you that "The main narrative is that they've exceeded expectations and that they have exorcised past demons, and are still the Cup Contender that they've been for years."


Show me these articles, because I can show about 100 that agree with you.

I will do my level best to post a response to this without going into a personal attack on Mr. Tanner, which I must admit, will be difficult.

I was taken aback when Mr. Tanner declared unequivocally that the Caps would miss the playoffs, and IIRC, I responded to him telling him that was ludicrous. While the season is not over, here we are with the Caps not only in a playoff position, but in playoff position as the 2nd seed in the Eastern conference. That fact in no way diminishes the holes in the roster, but solid coaching, timely secondary scoring, above-average goaltending, and the rejuvenation of this generations greatest goal scorers bodes well for the remainder of the season.

Mr. Tanner cites statistics, and ONLY statistics, when arriving at his conclusion of the Caps missing the playoffs. This leads me to question whether he has watched any of the Caps games this season, and if so, how many he has watched. As a Caps fan, I have watched roughly 90% of their games, and to the person who will only consider statistics, I will concede that statistically, the Caps have often been outplayed. But, as the saying goes figures lie, and liars figure. Defensively, the Caps have been able to maintain structure while under duress, which has limited goals against. The top line has demonstrated the ability to score quickly when in the attack zone. These facts would distort the impact of Cosi, and possession numbers on the outcome of games, but you'd have to actually WATCH the games to know that.
Without watching the games, and using only isolated statistics to draw a conclusion, I can conclude that Sidney Crosby isn't a very good player, because in even-strength situations, the opposing team has scored 10 more goals while he has been on the ice than his team has scored. In fact, he is the 738th best player in the league, based on that statistic. Clearly, that's ridiculous. About as ridiculous as Mr. Tanner suggesting that his statistical analysis mandates that the Caps miss the playoffs, and through those statistics, he is able to infer they are among the worst teams in the league. There is a reason why Mr. Tanner is not employed by any of the leagues teams for his ability to analyze and interpret statistics, and the above serves as "exhibit A" as to why.

I will do my level best to post a response to this without going into a personal attack on Mr. Tanner, which I must admit, will be difficult.

I was taken aback when Mr. Tanner declared unequivocally that the Caps would miss the playoffs, and IIRC, I responded to him telling him that was ludicrous. While the season is not over, here we are with the Caps not only in a playoff position, but in playoff position as the 2nd seed in the Eastern conference. That fact in no way diminishes the holes in the roster, but solid coaching, timely secondary scoring, above-average goaltending, and the rejuvenation of this generations greatest goal scorers bodes well for the remainder of the season.

Mr. Tanner cites statistics, and ONLY statistics, when arriving at his conclusion of the Caps missing the playoffs. This leads me to question whether he has watched any of the Caps games this season, and if so, how many he has watched. As a Caps fan, I have watched roughly 90% of their games, and to the person who will only consider statistics, I will concede that statistically, the Caps have often been outplayed. But, as the saying goes figures lie, and liars figure. Defensively, the Caps have been able to maintain structure while under duress, which has limited goals against. The top line has demonstrated the ability to score quickly when in the attack zone. These facts would distort the impact of Cosi, and possession numbers on the outcome of games, but you'd have to actually WATCH the games to know that.
Without watching the games, and using only isolated statistics to draw a conclusion, I can conclude that Sidney Crosby isn't a very good player, because in even-strength situations, the opposing team has scored 10 more goals while he has been on the ice than his team has scored. In fact, he is the 738th best player in the league, based on that statistic. Clearly, that's ridiculous. About as ridiculous as Mr. Tanner suggesting that his statistical analysis mandates that the Caps miss the playoffs, and through those statistics, he is able to infer they are among the worst teams in the league. There is a reason why Mr. Tanner is not employed by any of the leagues teams for his ability to analyze and interpret statistics, and the above serves as "exhibit A" as to why.
- sfischer

You forget to mention he is not employed by a credible source because he consistently attacks his readers referring to anyone who does not agree with his analysis as people of lesser intelligence. This while attempting to increase followers by posting some of the most asinine narratives and claiming somethings to only be jokes until one of them comes true then he claims he knew it to be true and anyone who didn't see it coming is a moron.

James Tanner: Caps Heading for Disappointing Second Half
- james_tanner1

Better GM, McPhee or Chayka? Discuss please, Mr. Tanner.

The other hilarious side of this, is his attack on a team like the Oilers, who he bashes over and over, yet according to the stats he uses to label the Capitals "LUCKY", shows them to be better than they are...... so what is it?? Lucky cause he says so ( and his stats apparently back it up ) or a terrible team ( even tho said stats say they are not ) hmmmmmm

I think this is where credibility goes to die



Call it luck all you want, but when you have one of the best goalies in the league, the most prolific scorer of this generation, an underrated Backstrom, some good depth players, and a coach that just seems to win..... I am sorry but in the NHL that is a good team.

Wow. Single worst article I’ve ever read. Statistics are that statistics. Providing you’ve been in college I’m sure you’ve learned they can be manipulated and they also aren’t the end all be all. I’m happy that your statistics say that the caps wouldn’t be in the playoffs. Cause they will. Their core too decent to not be. Every team has fringe players. That’s the fun part that your numbers can’t quantify. If it was always numbers then you’d be able to be right most of the time. Instead you think you know what your talking about and instead come off a fool. Caps are making the playoffs despite your garbage stats. We can literally comb over every nhl team and find 5 ahl players.

Also since you obviously aren’t from the area. Nor do you watch caps hockey. Let go of burakovsky being benched. Kid was being a dip. Got benched to wake him up. Live near kettles find this info out. Pretend to be a real blogger that actually reads. Instead of numbers that don’t explain anything, if they did they’d support your ridiculous standpoint.

Somewhere in the blogosphere there is a big barrel with the word LUCK painted on it where the stats "guru's" like Mr. Tanner who have no real actual insight into the game put things that they can't explain statistically. I love the expected goals stat. Cracks me up. There's one stat that Tanner will not consider though! Goals for and against. The team with the most goals at the end of the game, wins! So old school I know!

You forget to mention he is not employed by a credible source because he consistently attacks his readers referring to anyone who does not agree with his analysis as people of lesser intelligence. This while attempting to increase followers by posting some of the most asinine narratives and claiming somethings to only be jokes until one of them comes true then he claims he knew it to be true and anyone who didn't see it coming is a moron.
- wreckage

His interaction on this website is nothing compared to his rhetoric on his twitter feed.

Somewhere in the blogosphere there is a big barrel with the word LUCK painted on it where the stats "guru's" like Mr. Tanner who have no real actual insight into the game put things that they can't explain statistically. I love the expected goals stat. Cracks me up. There's one stat that Tanner will not consider though! Goals for and against. The team with the most goals at the end of the game, wins! So old school I know!
- MJL

One of the ironic parts of Tanner’s writing is through his superficial and cherry picked use of stats, he has done more to hinder the use of enhanced stats, than promote their use.

Holtby (like many other top goalies including lundqvist, price & rask) has helped Washington to year-after-year consistently have an above average pdo. So what he thinks his a lucky run, is actually sustainable results stemming from having a top goalie. what the caps are doing is nothing like the sens run from last year.

Enhanced stats should lead you to more questions – not directly to answers.

A perfect example is Tanner's statement that the Caps are the 10th worst team in terms of Corsi. To put that in context the Caps are at 48.37 CF%. The 10th best team in the league is at 51.53%. That's a difference of 3.16% or basically one shot attempt per period.

Tanner aside, PDO is not a bottomless well. Eventually it runs dry. How long that takes is dependent on the quality of the roster.

It is accurate to say that the Caps are very top heavy. Great first line. Great goalie. Solid first d-pairing. Beyond that, the talent level drops off and the drop gets steeper past the 2nd line and 1st pairing.

If Holtby goes cold, or Ovechkin has a protracted dry spell, the blimp is going to crash and burn. Thankfully for the Caps, Holtby and Ovechkin are awesome and neither are likely to go cold for long. But, unforseen poop happens, like injuries. That is why PDO is often described as the luck factor. They do not have the depth to sustain a loss to either of these elite players.

Another team drinking from the PDO well is the Lightning. They are the poster child of PDO. But, look at the roster. There is very good offensive depth there. They could sustain an injury to Stamkos or Kucherov and still manage to keep winning - look at last year when they went on an insane run with Stamkos in the press box and missed the playoffs by less than a game. If not for a mediocre start, they would have made it without Stamkos. Take away a loss to the Coyotes and they qualify. (ouch!)

Now, they have lost Hedman. That is going to hurt, but they can survive it.

The only player they absolutely cannot afford to lose for any length of time is Vasi. If Vasi gets hurt, the Lightning train will go off the rails fast.

This is the nature of PDO. One cannot rely on it. It takes a deep roster, solid coaching, and structured/disciplined play to sustain a train fueled by PDO. The Caps at best have two out of the three and arguably only one of three.

Tanner aside, PDO is not a bottomless well. Eventually it runs dry. How long that takes is dependent on the quality of the roster.

It is accurate to say that the Caps are very top heavy. Great first line. Great goalie. Solid first d-pairing. Beyond that, the talent level drops off and the drop gets steeper past the 2nd line and 1st pairing.

If Holtby goes cold, or Ovechkin has a protracted dry spell, the blimp is going to crash and burn. Thankfully for the Caps, Holtby and Ovechkin are awesome and neither are likely to go cold for long. But, unforseen poop happens, like injuries. That is why PDO is often described as the luck factor. They do not have the depth to sustain a loss to either of these elite players.

Another team drinking from the PDO well is the Lightning. They are the poster child of PDO. But, look at the roster. There is very good offensive depth there. They could sustain an injury to Stamkos or Kucherov and still manage to keep winning - look at last year when they went on an insane run with Stamkos in the press box and missed the playoffs by less than a game. If not for a mediocre start, they would have made it without Stamkos. Take away a loss to the Coyotes and they qualify. (ouch!)

Now, they have lost Hedman. That is going to hurt, but they can survive it.

The only player they absolutely cannot afford to lose for any length of time is Vasi. If Vasi gets hurt, the Lightning train will go off the rails fast.

This is the nature of PDO. One cannot rely on it. It takes a deep roster, solid coaching, and structured/disciplined play to sustain a train fueled by PDO. The Caps at best have two out of the three and arguably only one of three.
- GalacticStone

pdo is not something that every team has to be average at.

boston, nyr, wash, and to a lesser extent montreal end up with above average pdo's year-after-year. good goaltending can cause that.

leafs are in the same boat as tampa. if vasi and andersen prove to be top-end goalies and not just guys on a heater, there will be no end to the well.

i love how injuries to Niskanen and Oshie get ignored,Burka injured then struggling or continued growth of supposed scrubs Vrana Djoos and Bowey. Caps corsi always misleading because they pass up more quality shots than any team in the league.

A perfect example is Tanner's statement that the Caps are the 10th worst team in terms of Corsi. To put that in context the Caps are at 48.37 CF%. The 10th best team in the league is at 51.53%. That's a difference of 3.16% or basically one shot attempt per period.
- MJL

much better breakdown of Caps right here link: wnst.net/top-story/crabs-n-beer/a-detailed-look-at-the-caps-after-45-games/[url]