John Jaeckel: The Prospect Tease

FIRST

John, I read so many of the posts on HockeyBuzz and I always enjoy yours so much. You are realistic and tell it like it is. As a Predators fan, it's always interesting to see what the competition is up to and you lay it out in an easy to follow style.

Thanks for your work, it is appreciated.

You are correct JJ. I still think vision and hockey IQ are huge factors. Both can overcome skating, speed, and size. Look at Yakupov: tremendous speed, hands and shot. He even read defenses well WITH THE PUCK, but without it and when forechecking he could not anticipate correctly and looked lost. He learned to use his great speed to backcheck. He got stronger and showed more willingness but just seems to be lacking some fundamental understanding of the game.

My other point would be hey, sports is like all parts of life, there are narratives to create. There are the same worn stories and numerous chances for some player on one of the teams to fulfill that role, just as some teams will surprise etc.

It's about selling hockey and that great hope that you can make it or your kid. But it literally is the show. Will power, hockey IQ and vision rule the league more than any other attribute. It is why Jagr can still play and put up numbers 100s of players will never even match and Jagr is old. It is why despite hitches in the skating of Kane and Oshie they still can dominate. Why slower players and smaller ones can still make it. Look at Hossa last year; he lost a ton of the speed he once had but he is strong, willful, with tremendous hockey IQ and vision. Everone has great skills in the NHL that are not that far off from the next guy.

John, I read so many of the posts on HockeyBuzz and I always enjoy yours so much. You are realistic and tell it like it is. As a Predators fan, it's always interesting to see what the competition is up to and you lay it out in an easy to follow style.

Thanks for your work, it is appreciated.
- DougPaz

Doug,

Of all the nice things I hear with regard to my HB work, the most gratifying is that which comes from fans of other teams. Only because it means the work has larger hockey relevance than just Hawk fanboy stuff (of which I have also been accused).

Thx, Cheers

You are correct JJ. I still think vision and hockey IQ are huge factors. Both can overcome skating, speed, and size. Look at Yakupov: tremendous speed, hands and shot. He even read defenses well WITH THE PUCK, but without it and when forechecking he could not anticipate correctly and looked lost. He learned to use his great speed to backcheck. He got stronger and showed more willingness but just seems to be lacking some fundamental understanding of the game.

My other point would be hey, sports is like all parts of life, there are narratives to create. There are the same worn stories and numerous chances for some player on one of the teams to fulfill that role, just as some teams will surprise etc.

It's about selling hockey and that great hope that you can make it or your kid. But it literally is the show. Will power, hockey IQ and vision rule the league more than any other attribute. It is why Jagr can still play and put up numbers 100s of players will never even match and Jagr is old. It is why despite hitches in the skating of Kane and Oshie they still can dominate. Why slower players and smaller ones can still make it. Look at Hossa last year; he lost a ton of the speed he once had but he is strong, willful, with tremendous hockey IQ and vision. Everone has great skills in the NHL that are not that far off from the next guy.
- BluemanGuruu

He could stuill fly past a lot of guys when he turned it on, even last year

But all good points. That's why I say willingness and having SOME other skill can help a guy overcome a lack in another area. Some guys have it, some don't.

Toews making the rounds with the Canadian press today.

http://www.cp24.com/video....395214&playlistPageNum=1

http://globalnews.ca/vide...s-on-the-nhls-olympic-ban

http://www.sportsnet.ca/h...ng-forward-reunited-saad/

http://www.bttoronto.ca/v...ws-started-playing-hockey

You can all now debate for pages whether he is taking the offseason seriously enough, feels badly enough about the two first round exits, and whether he looks healthier. You're welcome.

Thanks for providing some of prospect Koolaid drinkers a reality check JJ, and of course...great read as always! I honestly think the only one to make the big club this season, provided he can recover from his injury quick enough, is Fortin. Debrincat needs to spend a season or two in the Rock adjusting to playing against larger/more skilled players and proving that his tiny (and apparently unmotivated) self deserves to be up with the Hawks IMO.

"Toews making the rounds with the Canadian press today.

http://www.cp24.com/video....395214&playlistPageNum=1

http://globalnews.ca/vide...s-on-the-nhls-olympic-ban

http://www.sportsnet.ca/h...ng-forward-reunited-saad/

http://www.bttoronto.ca/v...ws-started-playing-hockey

You can all now debate for pages whether he is taking the offseason seriously enough, feels badly enough about the two first round exits, and whether he looks healthier. You're welcome. []


pdx2ord

Thanks for sharing, feel like I just got my fix!

Great Blog JJ. I was dialed in on the Heart component. Impossible to measure until a Reeves/Ott like player cleans your clock the first time.

I would like to say that was one of the best blogs I have ever read on Hockey Buzz and you totally nailed it in my opinion. This blog is a perfect model to follow for my Association of Franchise Owners fantasy league of year 39 starting this fall. Not trying to blow my own horn but I have a habit of trading my draft picks for the same reason JJ has mentioned. I have won 12 of the last 14 years without any first round picks, traded for example, my 2016 selection for Justin Schultz who I could see the potential in. Picking late in the first round does not excite me. For example Flyer fans are thrilled trading B. Schenn for two late first round selections and I totally disagree. They are going to have to be extremely lucky and patient while the Blues probably have their new number one center who mark my words is going to be better in ST. Louis and his 17 pp goals are going to be missed. Great blog JJ, keep up the fine work and you are the top blogger on Hockey Buzz, no doubt about that.

John good blog for the most part, but disagree with this (probably as one would expect):

The jury is still sort of out on TT as an NHL player.

I would argue we kind of know what TT is now. He's a versatile middle 6 player who has tremendous shot suppression numbers.

https://public.tableau.co...H6CGG6?:display_count=yes

Aside from that (somewhat predictable) complaint, I do think you're spot on.

Thx Joe!

John good blog for the most part, but disagree with this (probably as one would expect):



I would argue we kind of know what TT is now. He's a versatile middle 6 player who has tremendous shot suppression numbers.

https://public.tableau.co...H6CGG6?:display_count=yes

Aside from that (somewhat predictable) complaint, I do think you're spot on.
- BINGO!

Teravainen's shot suppression numbers are skewed somewhat because he was deployed in what is considered a sheltered offensive role at 5v5. He was very effective in that role and would likely still be good at shot suppression with tougher usage/deployment, though. His transition ability is useful in that regard.

Nice write up JJ I am hoping that Alexandre Fortin has similar preseason this year, as he did last year. Also hoping that Vinnie Hinostroza, training with Kane and Hartman this off season, pays off and he make the team as well. Imagine all the speed throughout the Hawks line up .... Saad - Fortin - Panik - Hinostroza ...... speed on all the lines. Hoping that Hinostroza can develop into similar player as Victor Arvedson ..... they are both about the same size and have similar speed. Nice thoughts but we shall have to wait and see first

Just an FYI, you noted Panik as succeeding on Toews LW, when he is a RW.

Teravainen's shot suppression numbers are skewed somewhat because he was deployed in what is considered a sheltered offensive role at 5v5. He was very effective in that role and would likely still be good at shot suppression with tougher usage/deployment, though. His transition ability is useful in that regard.


- L_B_R

Oh for sure. I wouldn't expect him to continue to have elite suppression numbers like that going forward, but I do think he's still a very solid middle six player.

Just an FYI, you noted Panik as succeeding on Toews LW, when he is a RW.
- JRoenick97

Yep, slip of the pen, I was riffing! LOL

Yep, slip of the pen, I was riffing! LOL
- John Jaeckel

Spot on otherwise though. I assume this was partially in response to the NHL Hawks prospects rankings, which I scratched my head at.

I'd also like to commend your timing on the new blog because the conversation went in a real bad(political) direction on the old one last night.

I agree. One other comment on "Speed". A lot of players can fly. However it is more than skating very fast. They need to be able to have ice recognition while they are skating fast, reading plays, finding open ice, finding open teammates, making a move or getting of a shot in a split second. So I would amend your "Speed" to "Play at high Speed".

Some players without super foot speed make up for it with their ability to think the game and execute at max speed.

I agree. One other comment on "Speed". A lot of players can fly. However it is more than skating very fast. They need to be able to have ice recognition while they are skating fast, reading plays, finding open ice, finding open teammates, making a move or getting of a shot in a split second. So I would amend your "Speed" to "Play at high Speed".

Some players without super foot speed make up for it with their ability to think the game and execute at max speed.
- -Doh-

Viktor Stalberg. Lightning on skates, no ability to keep up mentally.

Viktor Stalberg. Lightning on skates, no ability to keep up mentally.
- JRoenick97

Yeah. He's a useful depth guy, but not much else.

Viktor Stalberg. Lightning on skates, no ability to keep up mentally.
- JRoenick97

And granite for hands.

I think everything written in the blog here and in the comments just points to how many different factors go into individual NHL success and how some scouting can get it wrong as much as they get it right.

There isn't an exact formula and I think the biggest difference is the sheer willpower of the guys who want it. Junior scoring may not be a sure thing, but it certainly doesn't hurt to have a consistent track record for scoring and some of the confidence that can come with it. DeBincat may or may not pan out, but I like the fact that he has gotten it done so far without being bigger or faster. He will face tougher competition as his career moves along, but strength/speed/size are not what have set him apart in junior, so maybe he can think the game well enough to be an NHL player in the next few seasons.

I would love to see the Hawks add someone or promote a youngster with some of the fearless streak of a Shaw or Kruger. Not the biggest/strongest guys, but willing to pay the price over and over to get results.

I'm glad that the Hawks FO is always looking to add prospects to the system. They know they don't have the best draft positioning and they go out and get players from other sources as much as possible. More irons in the fire and they haven't been afraid to trade or move on from someone who they don't feel is a fit.