James Tanner: Caps GM Wrong in Assessment of Ovechkin and He Should Know Better

You still see all shots as being equal. They aren't. A shot on net from the center dot & a shot on net from the blue paint aren't the same. I mean, there's a thing called high danger scoring chances for a reason. Players can control their shooting % by NOT taking zero risk shots & finding better shooting locations. There's a fine line between under-shooting & just ripping everything from anywhere, but a professional hockey player should probably be able to figure that out.

In all seriousness, it's not rocket science to look at his shooting% and ice time and figure out that he still is pretty much the same player.

It amazes me how lazy some analysis can be

You still see all shots as being equal. They aren't. A shot on net from the center dot & a shot on net from the blue paint aren't the same. I mean, there's a thing called high danger scoring chances for a reason. Players can control their shooting % by NOT taking zero risk shots & finding better shooting locations. There's a fine line between under-shooting & just ripping everything from anywhere, but a professional hockey player should probably be able to figure that out.
- ScienceJesus

Yeah but like he said, Ovechkin's career average is about 10. You think that he forgot how to find good scoring areas??? Caaa maaaaaan

You still see all shots as being equal. They aren't. A shot on net from the center dot & a shot on net from the blue paint aren't the same. I mean, there's a thing called high danger scoring chances for a reason. Players can control their shooting % by NOT taking zero risk shots & finding better shooting locations. There's a fine line between under-shooting & just ripping everything from anywhere, but a professional hockey player should probably be able to figure that out.
- ScienceJesus

So you believe that after a decade scoring at over a 40 goal pace, he all of the sudden stopped taking shots in certain spots on the ice?

Even if he truly had a down year (he didn't) that doesn't mean he won't return to 40+ goals for the next 3-4 years

You still see all shots as being equal. They aren't. A shot on net from the center dot & a shot on net from the blue paint aren't the same. I mean, there's a thing called high danger scoring chances for a reason. Players can control their shooting % by NOT taking zero risk shots & finding better shooting locations. There's a fine line between under-shooting & just ripping everything from anywhere, but a professional hockey player should probably be able to figure that out.
- ScienceJesus

Yes, players who rarely take shots have higher shooting percentages.

But you can compare the same players year to year and the fluctuations are wild, while their style of play is not.

Your example is a false comparison and not relevant to this conversation - I don't need to argue beyond the fact that I am comparing the same player across multiple seasons.

Players cannot control their s% and that is not up for debate.

Very few goal scorers manage to avoid seeing their shooting % drastically drop for a season or 3 over their entire career. It's not Trotz that limited Ovechkins %.

Your blogs are ridiculous. Coddle a 'superstar' and you'll see Ovechkin revert back to his infamous defensive play when he decides to check out and float.

In all seriousness, it's not rocket science to look at his shooting% and ice time and figure out that he still is pretty much the same player.

It amazes me how lazy some analysis can be
- sbroads24

And he's the GM ffs.

Yes, players who rarely take shots have higher shooting percentages.

But you can compare the same players year to year and the fluctuations are wild, while their style of play is not.

Your example is a false comparison and not relevant to this conversation - I don't need to argue beyond the fact that I am comparing the same player across multiple seasons.

Players cannot control their s% and that is not up for debate.
- james_tanner1

You still see all shots as being equal. They aren't. A shot on net from the center dot & a shot on net from the blue paint aren't the same. I mean, there's a thing called high danger scoring chances for a reason. Players can control their shooting % by NOT taking zero risk shots & finding better shooting locations. There's a fine line between under-shooting & just ripping everything from anywhere, but a professional hockey player should probably be able to figure that out.
- ScienceJesus

In fact, volume shooting is the key to success in the NHL. You never know if you'll score and it pays to shoot alot. Yes, OV is always going to have a lower % than probably Backstrom or guys like him, but he takes 350 odd shots per year.

You want volume guys. Getting open for shots is the single hardest thing to do in the NHL. Ovechkin is still - Auston Matthews maybe excepting - the best at it.

Very few goal scorers manage to avoid seeing their shooting % drastically drop for a season or 3 over their entire career. It's not Trotz that limited Ovechkins %.

Your blogs are ridiculous. Coddle a 'superstar' and you'll see Ovechkin revert back to his infamous defensive play when he decides to check out and float.
- dan_77

I didn't blame Trotz at all for his shooting percentage going down.

I blame Trotz for taking away 2 minutes of ice-time per game, and for whining at a press conference, but not that.

Your comment is ridiculous.

- Tumbleweed

My personal favorite thing is when people sarcastically post emogies while being 100% wrong and unfounded in their sarcasm.

"had his tying goal not hit the skinny part of Marc-Andre Fleury's goal-stick"

How was it a goal if it didn't go in the net?

Very few goal scorers manage to avoid seeing their shooting % drastically drop for a season or 3 over their entire career. It's not Trotz that limited Ovechkins %.

Your blogs are ridiculous. Coddle a 'superstar' and you'll see Ovechkin revert back to his infamous defensive play when he decides to check out and float.
- dan_77

This is what he's saying.

If shooting % was so "controllable" then why do very few players avoid seeing it drop a considerable amount from time to time?

Yeah but like he said, Ovechkin's career average is about 10. You think that he forgot how to find good scoring areas??? Caaa maaaaaan
- The-O-G

I think after all these years he started getting complacent & comfortable shooting from certain areas & teams/goalies started keying in on those areas to minimize their effectiveness. Shot volume is one of a few variables involved. Being predictable causes diminishing returns.

My personal favorite thing is when people sarcastically post emogies while being 100% wrong and unfounded in their sarcasm.
- james_tanner1

You’re lost in the stats and averages.

Now don’t go make me post the top 50 players high and low that prove you’re clueless.

2009-10 to 2016-17 (as far back as nhl.com goes).

games 5v5 on ice shooting % pdo
1 Steven Stamkos 506 10.7% 1020
2 Martin St. Louis 443 10.5% 1021
3 Jiri Hudler 453 10.3% 1014
4 Sidney Crosby 492 10.2% 1019
5 Ondrej Palat 307 10% 1032

In fact, volume shooting is the key to success in the NHL. You never know if you'll score and it pays to shoot alot. Yes, OV is always going to have a lower % than probably Backstrom or guys like him, but he takes 350 odd shots per year.

You want volume guys. Getting open for shots is the single hardest thing to do in the NHL. Ovechkin is still - Auston Matthews maybe excepting - the best at it.
- james_tanner1

Please explain. Getting open for a shot is only one part of the equation , and not the hardest part about scoring a goal.

Nothing against either guy but you certainly need to the head coach and franchise player on the same page quickly. If not somebody needs to leave, and by somebody I don't mean Ovi.

If Ovi is frustrated with the scene in Capsburgh I'd look to make sure the guy was happy as a pig in poop. Personally, I think it would be great for Washington to trade for Kovalchuck. The Devils even have enough cap space to help with Orpik's contract. There would obviously be a real cost to that but this team has to go for it.

Ovi has clearly lost a step and he is fighting father time like everyone else. It would behoove him to lose a few pounds and really focus on coming back in great shape next season. He just can't beat guys one on one anymore and he is going to have to find ways to adapt as the game gets faster by the day.

Trotz is an average coach at best. He seems to have no ability to make the necessary changes quickly or come out of the gate with a good game plan. Pit and TO in their own way gave the Caps fits and Trotz and company had no answer. If Ovi was a hurt as it seems Trotz should have made the adjustments before hand and not just when his back was against the wall. Pit is a better team but also better coached.

Also,Trotz doesn't seem to care for or cultivate a good learning environment for the young guys. Anyone can stick a player on the 3rd or 4th line and just tell them to earn a promotion. He's going to have a number of kids come up from the AHL next season and on that note alone I predict he will not make through the season as the head coach.

Ya all that bad luck they get EVERY SINGLE YEAR!.

After the elimination game Trotz complained about Ovechkin in a way I thought was both disrespectful and wrong. I think Trotz was the one who removed Tim Connolly from the lineup, put Ovechkin on the third line and didn't fully take advantage of what Kevin Shattenkirk brought to the team

Ovi has clearly lost a step and he is fighting father time like everyone else. It would behoove him to lose a few pounds and really focus on coming back in great shape next season. He just can't beat guys one on one anymore and he is going to have to find ways to adapt as the game gets faster by the day.

Trotz is an average coach at best. He seems to have no ability to make the necessary changes quickly or come out of the gate with a good game plan. Pit and TO in their own way gave the Caps fits and Trotz and company had no answer. If Ovi was a hurt as it seems Trotz should have made the adjustments before hand and not just when his back was against the wall. Pit is a better team but also better coached.

Also,Trotz doesn't seem to care for or cultivate a good learning environment for the young guys. Anyone can stick a player on the 3rd or 4th line and just tell them to earn a promotion. He's going to have a number of kids come up from the AHL next season and on that note alone I predict he will not make through the season as the head coach.
- Capsnut

I firmly believe that Ovi is older than he says he is. Maybe even on the wrong side of 35.

Brett Connolly*

I'm not a Capitals fan. I don't dislike them either. I've lived all my life in Edmonton. Yes, I know... born under a lucky hockey puck shaped star.

Ovechkin is an amazing player. My casual impression from afar is that he is not a leader, like Gretzky, Yzerman, Lemieux, Toews and Crosby. I mean he is not a kind of player that inspires the other players around him to elevate their game and give a little extra for their leader and for their team. To be that person, you need to be highly skilled but also unselfish.

My own perception of Ovechkin is an underlying selfishness. Don't get me wrong, selfishness is not necessarily a bad thing. It is easy for anyone supremely talented to become somewhat selfish. But the teammates need to feel that the leader sincerely also wants them to succeed individually for them to go through the wall for him.

Ovechkin has amazing skill. That is why the team is successful when the going is easy. But He lacks that intangible inspirational quality for when the going gets tough. That is my objective perception of him. I don't have anything against him. Trotz is doing his best to put Ovechkin in a situation to make him appear that he is all about the "team". But it is impossible to hide someone's true colours.

I don't believe Ovechkin will ever win the cup until he plays with a Player who has that "leader" quality. Because in my opinion, he does not.