John Jaeckel: Down To The Crossroads

Great write-up, JJ. The next month will be very, very interesting, to say the least.

Power's article this morning: https://theathletic.com/6...talent-wherever-they-can/

I think back to those two years, that Arizona and Vancouver ousted the Hawks in the first round, and lots of people wanted to trade Hammer ... bad playoff from turnovers and Crawford. After that they won two more cups with these guys. Last year, Hossa should retire .... he's too old ..... yada yada yada. He had solid year, but he is more of a third liner now, but good year none the less. The year the Sharks blew a 3-0 lead to the Kings, they were calling for Doug Wilson's head ... tear down the team ! Very subtle changes that off season, followed by a trip to the Stanley Cup finals. Maybe, Hawks should make subtle changes too ..... after all, the no movement clauses make it difficult to trade the big salaries. This should be the last hurrah with this core, because the following year, it gets even worse, cap wise. So I don't know for sure ... but maybe this might be the way to go ???? Not too many options with NMC and when you think about, they were a 50 win team, so something went right. Must be better prepared for play offs obviously. You can't just get rid of people if you don't have a replacement. Don't fill one hole by creating another hole

I think back to those two years, that Arizona and Vancouver ousted the Hawks in the first round, and lots of people wanted to trade Hammer ... bad playoff from turnovers and Crawford. After that they won two more cups with these guys. Last year, Hossa should retire .... he's too old ..... yada yada yada. He had solid year, but he is more of a third liner now, but good year none the less. The year the Sharks blew a 3-0 lead to the Kings, they were calling for Doug Wilson's head ... tear down the team ! Very subtle changes that off season, followed by a trip to the Stanley Cup finals. Maybe, Hawks should make subtle changes too ..... after all, the no movement clauses make it difficult to trade the big salaries. This should be the last hurrah with this core, because the following year, it gets even worse, cap wise. So I don't know for sure ... but maybe this might be the way to go ???? Not too many options with NMC and when you think about, they were a 50 win team, so something went right. Must be better prepared for play offs obviously. You can't just get rid of people if you don't have a replacement. Don't fill one hole by creating another hole
- chuckdahammer

I think back to those two years, that Arizona and Vancouver ousted the Hawks in the first round, and lots of people wanted to trade Hammer ... bad playoff from turnovers and Crawford. After that they won two more cups with these guys. Last year, Hossa should retire .... he's too old ..... yada yada yada. He had solid year, but he is more of a third liner now, but good year none the less. The year the Sharks blew a 3-0 lead to the Kings, they were calling for Doug Wilson's head ... tear down the team ! Very subtle changes that off season, followed by a trip to the Stanley Cup finals. Maybe, Hawks should make subtle changes too ..... after all, the no movement clauses make it difficult to trade the big salaries. This should be the last hurrah with this core, because the following year, it gets even worse, cap wise. So I don't know for sure ... but maybe this might be the way to go ???? Not too many options with NMC and when you think about, they were a 50 win team, so something went right. Must be better prepared for play offs obviously. You can't just get rid of people if you don't have a replacement. Don't fill one hole by creating another hole
- chuckdahammer

Well, it's more complicated and subtle than that:

Can Schmaltz step up and center Kane and Panarin next year (for example)?

Can you let deBrincat or Fortin play opposite Kane and acquire the speed left wing you want for Toews?

This is where a GM is a GM and not a just balance sheet guy. This is where scouting and guts come in.

Can Bowman pull off a couple of NHL value for value deals where he fills the hole created by one trade with the return from the other? GMs do that from time to time.

Because I'll tell you what you can't do (clever, haha, shopworn memes or no): keep doing essentially the same thing for the third summer straight and expect a different result.

Good objective blog John. Thanks for the updates and input.

What is the biggest priority you think personnel-wise? (Aside from squaring away the cap)

1) 1LW
2) Defense
3) Backup goalie

- DarthKane

You love yourself some cap space huh Darth?

My thoughts: 1-Kruger is gone one way or the other. Not due to ability, but due to cap hit and ease of trading him. So either Vegas takes him or we trade him. 2-TVR could be gone by Vegas selecting him. IMO that would kind of suck. He does not make much and seems a fine 3rd line defenseman. 3-If the cap stays in the 73-75 million range, AA gets dealt as well to get under the cap. Don't expect much back in return as we need to shed cap space. If the cap goes up to 76-77 million I would expect AA back as the 2nd line center. 4-There is no magic trade that solves all our issues. That is the whole point of the salary cap. That is why what Pittsburgh is doing....is doable by the Hawks as well. Their cap structure is very similar to the Hawks. A lot of high priced guys and a lot of low priced guys. The main difference being that their lower priced guys have played very well come playoff time this year...and ours did not. That said, our young guys had pretty good regular seasons. Gotta hope that translates. No one is trading us a speedy, first line LW. NO ONE. Plus we would lose someone really good to have to get that...so just spinning our wheels. We won three cups under the cap. The cap is now coming due. Not much we can do but hope some youngsters step up.

Well written and fair and not biased as usal John. Kudos.

I caught a brief note from a beat writer a few days back who ran into an upper Hawks management member who said to them "you guys have no idea what is coming"

This was on top of the reported Kruger/TVR rumor.....so I think you are correct in stating that option 1 may be the plan. Can they get it done? I have no idea....staring at their cap issue, and trying to make sense of it is painful.

Bowman seems to be a loyal guy to a fault at times. Will he give this core another "chance" at a contention by tweaking the roster and hopeful for guys to "get right" and improve and revert back to their "old selves"? I am NOT one for analytics. I get their importance but I rely more so on the eye test.....in contrast to the Cubs who are currently waiting on guys to "play up to their potential" this could be the exactly what Bowman is wishful for 17-18. A dangerous game if it blows up in his face.......

Well written and fair and not biased as usal John. Kudos.

I caught a brief note from a beat writer a few days back who ran into an upper Hawks management member who said to them "you guys have no idea what is coming"

This was on top of the reported Kruger/TVR rumor.....so I think you are correct in stating that option 1 may be the plan. Can they get it done? I have no idea....staring at their cap issue, and trying to make sense of it is painful.

Bowman seems to be a loyal guy to a fault at times. Will he give this core another "chance" at a contention by tweaking the roster and hopeful for guys to "get right" and improve and revert back to their "old selves"? I am NOT one for analytics. I get their importance but I rely more so on the eye test.....in contrast to the Cubs who are currently waiting on guys to "play up to their potential" this could be the exactly what Bowman is wishful for 17-18. A dangerous game if it blows up in his face.......
- SteveRain

There will be changes. That I was told. I don't think they know who or how yet.

Pressure is SERIOUSLY on Bowman to make a move or two of an unusually big nature. McD needs the press covfefe/spotlight back AND the team needs to get bigger, faster, better 5 on 5.

There will be changes. That I was told. I don't think they know who or how yet.

Pressure is SERIOUSLY on Bowman to make a move or two of an unusually big nature. McD needs the press covfefe/spotlight back AND the team needs to get bigger, faster, better 5 on 5.
- John Jaeckel

My thoughts: 1-Kruger is gone one way or the other. Not due to ability, but due to cap hit and ease of trading him. So either Vegas takes him or we trade him. 2-TVR could be gone by Vegas selecting him. IMO that would kind of suck. He does not make much and seems a fine 3rd line defenseman. 3-If the cap stays in the 73-75 million range, AA gets dealt as well to get under the cap. Don't expect much back in return as we need to shed cap space. If the cap goes up to 76-77 million I would expect AA back as the 2nd line center. 4-There is no magic trade that solves all our issues. That is the whole point of the salary cap. That is why what Pittsburgh is doing....is doable by the Hawks as well. Their cap structure is very similar to the Hawks. A lot of high priced guys and a lot of low priced guys. The main difference being that their lower priced guys have played very well come playoff time this year...and ours did not. That said, our young guys had pretty good regular seasons. Gotta hope that translates. No one is trading us a speedy, first line LW. NO ONE. Plus we would lose someone really good to have to get that...so just spinning our wheels. We won three cups under the cap. The cap is now coming due. Not much we can do but hope some youngsters step up.
- onehundredlevel

Good points but I believe you will see Bowman throw in a pick or prospect to get somebody to take Kruger's FULL deal. He is damaged goods. He's a niche player of a PK center, with very limited PROVEN NHL offensive ability. He's also banged up and that wrist injury continues to limit his ability to take face offs.

TVR....I thought he had played well vs Nasvhille. One of few guys who did. He's nothing more then a low 4th, high 5th D man on a cup contender and would need a STRONG partner to play top 4 minutes.

Agreed on AA...to me this is the easier of choices between AA vs Hammer vs Seabrook Vs Panarin. They seem to feel that plugging in Schmaltz between 88/72 they woudlnt' lose much offensively.....and they will need the cap room.

I dont' expect the cap to increase much more then 74.8....The players won't exercise the FULL 5% as that's a whole other animal. Instead they will do a portion to allow their brothern to still maximize earnings as best they can and I'm sure the NHL will lean hard ON them to help increase the cap and help the league out.....but anyone hoping for north of 75 million is wishful thinking. Fehr won't allow that. Last year players votes for a partial escrow percentage...expect the same this year.

As far as Pittsburgh goes.......What Rutherford has done is quite amazing. Has patched that D on the fly, and here's the other thing........and while the ship has sailed here......they also put Murray as their future #1 for a cheaper AAV and will deal Fluery this offseason. Banking more money.....something Bowman SHOULD have looked at hard here....regardless. Fluery is a cup winning goalie and played very well this playoff run........I'm quite sure Darling could have done the same......that's a move that very well could hurt this team as that cap space in savings between Darling vs Crawford could have saved another piece. Oh well.

There is no quick fix here....Bowmans greatest challenge awaits him and lets all hope he navigates the storm.

There will be changes. That I was told. I don't think they know who or how yet.

Pressure is SERIOUSLY on Bowman to make a move or two of an unusually big nature. McD needs the press covfefe/spotlight back AND the team needs to get bigger, faster, better 5 on 5.
- John Jaeckel

There has to be. More holes will be made to an already flawed '16 team to get back under the cap. I would prefer AA be the first domino to fall, but the NMC. I don't think he's a center anyway, and that would be an expensive winger.

As much as I love the guy, I think you have to see what you can get for Hammer. If a team is willing to overpay, you might be able to get a few cheap, useful pieces out of that deal.

This off season the Hawks need to put hockey operations above marketing. They will need to crack a few eggs to make an omelet. The problem is the Hawks needs cheap, young, NHL-ready players, which cost a premium. They can't wait for picks or prospects to develop.

You love yourself some cap space huh Darth?

- 93Joe

I fully don’t expect any announcements until the Stanley Cup is in the rearview, so not surprised we haven’t heard any shocking revelations beyond Kruger/TvR being dangled.

Perhaps foolish, but my rush to judgment will be a bit based on timing. If the Hawks stand pat through a flurry of league trade activity and end up with the exchange of say Vinny Hinostroza for the equivalent of a Jurco, I will infer that all grand plans have fallen through and we will just be pickin and grinnin through the spin zone for another summer.

I fully don’t expect any announcements until the Stanley Cup is in the rearview, so not surprised we haven’t heard any shocking revelations beyond Kruger/TvR being dangled.

Perhaps foolish, but my rush to judgment will be a bit based on timing. If the Hawks stand pat through a flurry of league trade activity and end up with the exchange of say Vinny Hinostroza for the equivalent of a Jurco, I will infer that all grand plans have fallen through and we will just be pickin and grinnin through the spin zone for another summer.
- phantasmo

I don't think the Stanley Cup will cause the delay, I think it's more about the salary cap and the expansion draft.

Wish that Bowman had made the move that LA made a few days ago.

Picking up Imama from TB would have given us toughness presence seriously lacking. Tootoo getting rag dolled by other teams' tough guys is not the answer to teams taking liberties with us. This guy Imama really impressed me during the Memorial Cup. I am surprised that TB let him go.

I fully don’t expect any announcements until the Stanley Cup is in the rearview, so not surprised we haven’t heard any shocking revelations beyond Kruger/TvR being dangled.

Perhaps foolish, but my rush to judgment will be a bit based on timing. If the Hawks stand pat through a flurry of league trade activity and end up with the exchange of say Vinny Hinostroza for the equivalent of a Jurco, I will infer that all grand plans have fallen through and we will just be pickin and grinnin through the spin zone for another summer.
- phantasmo

Yes and yes

I know this causes pain in Hawk-nation and may give McD a migrane, but who could they get from The PEG to send Jonny home?

I don't want to see The Captain go, but as the comment made, "you have no idea what is coming", this could be one.

An equally painful pill to swallow would be Kaner's return in a trade with BUF.

Hate the idea of either going, but something BIG has to give.

A very well constructed blog John, laid out beautifully and rationally.

I think you nailed it that IF Stan can make value for value hockey trades it will be an eventful, perhaps positive summer for the Hawks. As you have written so called salary cap trades have hurt.

Add Sharp, Johns and in essence Oduya for Garbutt and Daley was a killer at the time. Sekac and Scuderi would follow shortly and we ultimately wound up with zilch.

You and I somewhat disagree on this, but if Stan can pull off the TVR, Kruger deal with Vegas, FIRST. To me that would get him at least cap compliant. He could then make the gutsy high profile hockey trade, value for value.

One other note, I really think with all the character in the Blackhawks locker room, that acquiring Evander Kane from Buffalo, with the Sabres eating some of the contract, could be a home run. E. Kane was going on and on recently about not being able to show his talents in the playoffs ever. Putting next to Toews, Keith, Seabrook, Hosea etc. just might bring out even more than he has already shown.

IMO, standing pat is not an option. well...at least not an option for success. This roster has gotten older and slower. And too much of the salary cap is tied up in a few of players.
Hard choices will have to be made...some sacred cows (Seabrook?) may have to be dealt.

Panarin, Seabrook and AA and to a lesser extent Jammer and Keith--are your most trade able commodities (if you're hanging on to 88 and 19)

One, maybe two of the above will need to go to be cap compliant and to get younger, faster players.

I know this causes pain in Hawk-nation and may give McD a migrane, but who could they get from The PEG to send Jonny home?

I don't want to see The Captain go, but as the comment made, "you have no idea what is coming", this could be one.

An equally painful pill to swallow would be Kaner's return in a trade with BUF.

Hate the idea of either going, but something BIG has to give.
- blackhawk24

Adam Proteau has a blog that states Vegas needs to be a hit right away (based on the need to compete with all the other entertainment dollars). That got me thinking - the best US born player in Vegas, they have the cap room, and Bettman gets Vegas in the spotlight the first season. There will be players that can help fill holes and make future moves easier. Just a thought.

I don't think the Stanley Cup will cause the delay, I think it's more about the salary cap and the expansion draft.
- DarthKane

Expansion draft is June 21, with all sorts of no-transaction days starting on June 17.

The entry draft is June 23.

With all of the moves and protections and black-outs and....I would think that nothing much happens until they all gather in Chicago.

Just My Thoughts, but:

Kane and Toews won't be moved because they are the faces of the franchise, the only ones who really resonate with the casual fans - the only ones with even local big name commercials other than local car dealers.

Hossa - has a full NMC - won't be moved because of the potential recapture issues - some think he will continue to play for four more years for $1MM per - I have my doubts, unless he would agree to a move to a team with a better Cup-challenging-prospect than Chicago's.

Keith - with a full NMC probably won't be moved, if they still want to contend - he is still their top defenseman, looking for a comeback year next year in energy and consistency. Although - at only a $5.5 cap hit, he would be attractive, I would think.

Seabrook - with a full NMC, hard to move him at his cap hit - and I would think the Hawks wouldn't be willing to eat, say, $2MM per year for the next 7 years to make his cap hit more palatable. And - he still does have value here.

Crawford - a 10-team list, but don't know if it's positive or negative; after moving Darling, unlikely they would move Crawford.

That leaves the following with cap hits over $2MM, in some combination to bring back BOTH cap relief and value (ignoring any value to future draft picks or the likes of Debrincat, Fortin, Forsling, Schmaltz, etc.):

Hammer (a 10-team list, but Cap Friendly doesn't note whether its positive or negatice)
Panarin
Anisimov
Kruger (a 10-team no-trade list)
Panik

I hear what the FO is quietly saying, and what the sources are saying, about "expect a big move or two), and I'm certainly hopeful for JJ's scenario #1, but I'm thinking it's going to be closer to scenario #2.