James Tanner: Coaching, Luck Sink Capitals

First.

Insider info here.... the pens game plan is to let the caps wear them selves out by shooting a ton in the first period. Then they pounce on any opportunities they get.

After getting eliminated again this year, Washington should blow this thing up and trade Ovechkin. This team will never win a cup as is. Their window is getting smaller every year. The guy makes a lot of money and a lot of important pieces need to be resigned in the coming years. That, or trade John Carlson to the Oilers.

After I actually read the article.

I'm not so sure the caps are the better team. They have an advantage on defense. We have an advantage on offense. The goalies are a wash. Our coach is better.

The being said the caps can be proud of out shooting the pens. But a lot of their 70% advantage comes from near the blue line. Any chump can gain the blue line and fire a shot. Pads the stats. Makes the outcome look skewed.

The caps are not done by any means. They are going to come out swinging harder than the first 2 games. Let's just hope flurry and the pens can weather the storm once again

Getting a ton of your shots blocked and giving up odd man rushes isn't luck. Penguins defense shoots pucks off of net for a deflection or to regroup on cycle. Caps shoot telegraphed one timers that are blocked or easily saved.

Caps only come back if they make adjustments. Hoping luck changes isn't an adjustment.

For team like the caps which prides itself on having a number of upper echelon defensemen, they sure didn't play like it last night with all the breakdowns that led to breakaways or odd-man rushes. Too many perimeter shots. (not to mention, given the 5 pp opportunities, we should have expected more than a single goal and SH against)

The first was all caps, I'll give you that. But the remainder of the game, it was at the least very even. Caps couldn't get much going. Kuznetsov and Burkavosky, the caps secondary scoring, were nowhere to be found.

The more I watch Washington the more I realize they don't play with much passion. Crosby and Malkin are greater than Backstrom and Ovechkin. Two great centers will always be better than a good center and a great winger.

Caps weren't the best team last year, the Pens were. The names on the cup say so

Again with this luck bullsquat?!?!

Fleury shutting them down isn't luck. It's a goalie playing better than your goalie. The Pens making mincemeat out of your goalie isn't luck, it's the Pens players being better at scoring right now than your tean.

Get your head out of your butt.

You had what, four PPs? The Pens PK and Fleury shut it down. Not luck. Winning the possession game and losing the actual game doesn't mean it was luck.

After getting eliminated again this year, Washington should blow this thing up and trade Ovechkin. This team will never win a cup as is. Their window is getting smaller every year. The guy makes a lot of money and a lot of important pieces need to be resigned in the coming years. That, or trade John Carlson to the Oilers.
- Ihatebrianburke

Trade one of their four #1 dmen?!?!

Again with this luck bullsquat?!?!

Fleury shutting them down isn't luck. It's a goalie playing better than your goalie. The Pens making mincemeat out of your goalie isn't luck, it's the Pens players being better at scoring right now than your tean.

Get your head out of your butt.

You had what, four PPs? The Pens PK and Fleury shut it down. Not luck. Winning the possession game and losing the actual game doesn't mean it was luck.
- Rinosaur

Its like winning the popular vote...who cares, it doesnt mean a damn thing.

After getting eliminated again this year, Washington should blow this thing up and trade Ovechkin. This team will never win a cup as is. Their window is getting smaller every year. The guy makes a lot of money and a lot of important pieces need to be resigned in the coming years. That, or trade John Carlson to the Oilers.
- Ihatebrianburke

They pretty much have to anyway, hence why they went all-in and acquired Shattenkirk.

Have you seen their cap situation for next season? Right now they have about $22.8M in cap space and only 11 under contract:

Oshie: UFA
Williams: UFA
Kuznetsov: RFA
Winnik: UFA
Burakovsky: RFA
Connolly: RFA
Alzner: UFA
Shattenkirk: UFA
Orlov: RFA
Schmidt: RFA
Grubauer: RFA

Just re-signing Oshie, Shattenkirk and Kuznetsov is going to eat ~ $20M.

In short, the Caps are (frank)ed next season.

They pretty much have to anyway, hence why they went all-in and acquired Shattenkirk.

Have you seen their cap situation for next season? Right now they have about $22.8M in cap space and only 11 under contract:

Oshie: UFA
Williams: UFA
Kuznetsov: RFA
Winnik: UFA
Burakovsky: RFA
Connolly: RFA
Alzner: UFA
Shattenkirk: UFA
Orlov: RFA
Schmidt: RFA
Grubauer: RFA

Just re-signing Oshie, Shattenkirk and Kuznetsov is going to eat ~ $20M.

In short, the Caps are (frank)ed next season.
- As_I_See_It

I can't imagine they intended to re-sign Shatty.

How can you say its luck, but in the same breath say that the Pens goals came from 2 on 1's and breakaways?

The only people that ever post on a Tanner blog is to tell him how stupid he is. I really don't want to buck that trend.... so...

Tanner, you are probably the least informed and most bias writer that has ever been allowed to write anything. Unprofessional and Homer has your pic beside it in the dictionary.

I've always said, a great team is a great team when their best players are the best players in a series. Right now, the 3 best players in this series have been Fleury, Crosby, and Guentzel. I am not sure Ovi has been in the top 5.......and Holtby has been absolutely mediocre at best. Heres a fun fact....Malkin hasnt even got going yet. Great players make their own luck. Pittsburgh has done that. Here are the reasons Washington is losing 0-2: Crosby has been way better than Ovi. Fleury has been way better Holtby. Guentzel has been better than Backstrom. Sullivan has outcoached Trotts. And the intangibles have favored Pittsburgh. Also, remember that both teams have been way better at home than away. This is going to be a series where the metrics dont matter. Tanner, you can't blame everything on bad luck, because Pittsburgh being without Letang and Murray is way worse Luck than anything the caps have had to endure. Good teams can find a way to overcome some bad luck. One last note...Pittsburgh is, and always has been in the heads of the Washington Players. Until this changes, theres no way Washington will beat them

This series is not over by a longshot, but these wins are also not luck.

Well James you were right about 5 Gs if you secretly meant that Washington's goaltenders would combine to allow 5 goals. You can cry luck all you want. The bottom line is Pittsburgh has had better goaltending through the first two games and have been able to capitalize (heh pun intended) on their chances. I'm not going to say that the series is over and I will eat crow if the Capitals win this series, but I don't think Caps fan find the taste of crow so bad.

Tanner is out of narrative. "Deserve 2 wins"? ... "the better team"... "lucky"... these are the words of man who has faith in his "advanced metrics" and can't admit he's been wrong till this point. No where do you point out that the Pens have the better high end players, Crosby, Malkin, Kessel, Geunzel. No where do you point out that the Pens don't need 130 chances in 2 games! Its pretty pathetic.

I can't imagine they intended to re-sign Shatty.
- Rinosaur

I can't wait to watch a team give him 7yr/49 mil and realize what a mistake it is.

The Pens have minced top goaltenders for 5 1/2 series going back to last year in the playoffs. 1 1/2 of those vs Holtby (and the great Washington team you keep lauding). This Pens team capitalizes on its chances, yes Fleury has been Great... Malkin, Crosby, Kessel and Geuntzel are 1-4 in playoff scoring vs the TWO BEST GOALIES in the league this year!!!! Is that accidental? "Lucky"? Or is your framework flawed to the core? That human factor does not fit your perspective, so you ignore it!

I can't wait to watch a team give him 7yr/49 mil and realize what a mistake it is.
- mw630

Buffalo Sabres, The Pegulas like to spend tons of money on mediocre talent!!!!

Caps potentially losing 9/10 series to the pens has to be about more than luck



The yeah yeah yeahs though

First of all, Fleury is a very good goalie. He has been hung out to dry a lot in the past and often blamed for the teams' past failures but behind a decent defense he almost always does well. He probably has at least another 3 years left of good play and will likely get into the HOF. When Murray went down I was not concerned because Fleury is about equally as good. Murray of course has lots of upside potential due to being much younger and is the future of the Pens but at the moment it is inconsequential which of the two is playing goal for the Pens. The ones who are hurt the most by the Murray injury are the WBS Pens because the Pens needed to call up Jarry to be the backup (they had the best regular season record in the league but have given tons of goals so far in the ahl playoffs).

It is kind of ironic how being outshot and having most of the play in your defensive zone can sometimes work to your favor. I remember the 91 and 92 Pens sometimes being badly outshot yet still winning playoff games. Last night Fleury was "staying warm" for much of the game due to all the shots he faced (many quality ones). At the same time, Holtby sometimes just stood there for five minutes at a time (with the play being at the other end), getting "cold". Then suddenly the Pens forwards break through the Caps' defense for an odd man break. A "cold" Holtby then had to stop the likes of Crosby, Malkin, Kessel, Guentzel, etc. - all of whom can snipe the puck.

I have said it before but the only reliable way to beat the Pens is with a patient, non-aggressive trap that tries to slow down the game. There is only one team left in the playoffs who can play this way - St. Louis. The Caps can't play this way. While I think they can still come back and win this series they will be playing with fire the whole time by forcing the offense against the Pens.

Yeah 2 years in a row we are lucky right? Maybe the Caps defence is actually overrated and not that good and maybe our forwards are better. Sure looks that way at this point. And you told me to check out Orlov, he's pretty run of the mill. The Penguins have been here together already the whole team came back to play this year that won it last year and they see themselves as a big family. The Caps are teammates and the Penguins are brothers. And there is no way to quantify that and put it on some dumb chart.

The Capitals are the better team, and now they get to play the rest of the series knowing that the Penguins save and shooting percentage is almost guaranteed to drop (emphasis added).

Nice. You avoid the gambler's fallacy while suggesting the fallacious claim will prove to be true!