HockeyBuzz Hotstove: Who should be leading the Vezina race?

I think it's safe to say he will probably lead the league in Wins. Which really shouldn't matter so much, but it does to voters.

C'mon adam, you know that wins always matter. Without wins all those other stats are complete crap.

Steve Mason

Steve Mason
- YuenglingJagr

Who was the last Vesina winner to not make the playoffs?

C'mon adam, you know that wins always matter. Without wins all those other stats are complete crap.
- SRam19

Results don't matter
-James Tanner

Who was the last Vesina winner to not make the playoffs?
- Tonybere

MURRAY! muahahahahah

It's hard to not pick the obvious: Bobrovsky or Holtby. If it's anyone other than that I'll be shocked... well, I guess I wouldn't be totally shocked if it's Dubnyk.

- BINGO!

Can never tell with Flyers fans!

I'm going to go off the board here and pick Tampa's own Peter Budaj.

I'm going to go off the board here and pick Tampa's own Peter Budaj.
- verwustung

Banská Bystrica's own Peter Budaj?

Banská Bystrica's own Peter Budaj?
- DeflatedPucks

No, I can't even pronounce that.

C'mon adam, you know that wins always matter. Without wins all those other stats are complete crap.
- SRam19

To an extent every conventional goalie stat is a team stat, but none more so than wins.

To an extent every conventional goalie stat is a team stat, but none more so than wins.
- Blue Clam

GSAA accounts for the amount of goals you saved above average goaltending based on the difficulty of shots you faced.

GSAA accounts for the amount of goals you saved above average goaltending based on the difficulty of shots you faced.
- Feds91Stammer

Out of curiousity, how is difficulty determined? Simply shot location, or does shot type, screens, tips, etc come into the equation?

GSAA accounts for the amount of goals you saved above average goaltending based on the difficulty of shots you faced.
- Feds91Stammer

I tried to look up the "adjusted save percentages" from http://war-on-ice.com/ but they shut down when I wasn't looking. That still had it's flaws but was certainly an improvement over SV%.

Isn't GSAA basically just an extrapolation of SV%? My understanding is it's just comparing a goalies SV% to the average goalie SV%, and then converting the difference into goals based on shots faced.

Shot quality seems to be essential in determining the value of a goalie but I don't see a good way to determine shot quality other than having some guy watching and grading every save and goal against. I'm sure someone will eventually come out with something that can account for shot location, power, traffic, placement, tips, etc, etc. Until then the best goalie in the league on any given year may be far behind in terms of W,GAA,SV%,SO, and won't finish well in Vezina voting.

Out of curiousity, how is difficulty determined? Simply shot location, or does shot type, screens, tips, etc come into the equation?
- PancakesPenner

Location because data has shown that is the most important thing to evaluate in terms of shots.

I tried to look up the "adjusted save percentages" from http://war-on-ice.com/ but they shut down when I wasn't looking. That still had it's flaws but was certainly an improvement over SV%.

Isn't GSAA basically just an extrapolation of SV%? My understanding is it's just comparing a goalies SV% to the average goalie SV%, and then converting the difference into goals based on shots faced.

Shot quality seems to be essential in determining the value of a goalie but I don't see a good way to determine shot quality other than having some guy watching and grading every save and goal against. I'm sure someone will eventually come out with something that can account for shot location, power, traffic, placement, tips, etc, etc. Until then the best goalie in the league on any given year may be far behind in terms of W,GAA,SV%,SO, and won't finish well in Vezina voting.
- Blue Clam

I use Corsica and to my knowledge location is provided in the pxp by each arena's stats person. Corsica uses a data scraper to convert this into data and of course you want to use venue adjusted numbers to account for arena bias.

I use Corsica and to my knowledge location is provided in the pxp by each arena's stats person. Corsica uses a data scraper to convert this into data and of course you want to use venue adjusted numbers to account for arena bias.
- Feds91Stammer

Alright, that's a lot like the stat war-on-ice was generating. The issue of course is that there are going to be outliers on both sides, goalies whose HDSA's ( or LDSA/MDSA) are much harder or easier than the average, which will inflate or deflate their GSAA accordingly. It's a step in the right direction though.

I'm assuming here that shot quality against is solely based on the origin of the shot, not whether or not the shooter puts the puck into the goalies chest, versus low blocker, or any of the other variables that come into play like having Holmstrom sitting on you.