James Tanner: Ovechkin Goes Insane 1 goal, 2 assists, 11 shots.

He obviously needs to get going if the Caps want to get out of 2nd round this year...

I thought for sure that this article was going to be about Ovechkin going insane over it looking unlikely that NHL would send players to the Olympics. That article is probably coming, though...

Backstrom is a great player, but I don't think he understands how statistics work! If anyone got 11 shots per game and didn't score at least one goal, they'd have to be insanely unlucky.

There are currently 531 players in the NHL who have a 9% (1/11) shooting percentage or lower. Thats 63% of the nhl.

Is 63% of the NHL insanely unlucky? Or are some players better shooters then others?

He obviously needs to get going if the Caps want to get out of 2nd round this year...
- MattStrat

Pretty sure he's just relaxing and waiting for the important games to come along.

There are currently 531 players in the NHL who have a 9% (1/11) shooting percentage or lower. Thats 63% of the nhl.

Is 63% of the NHL insanely unlucky? Or are some players better shooters then others?
- Cloud

First, I think the term "insanely" may have been slightly hyperbolic. Second, what kind of question is that? Obviously.

I will say this though - everyone in the NHL is a good shooter. It's a lot harder to get a high shot volume than to get a high shooting percentage.

I thought for sure that this article was going to be about Ovechkin going insane over it looking unlikely that NHL would send players to the Olympics. That article is probably coming, though...
- Coleman

Good riddance is what I say. If Ovechkin and the 60 Million he's made from playing hockey is upset because he isn't allowed to go play in the Olympics........ lets just say I could not possibly care less what his opinion is. My opinion is that the Olympics are a corrupt, disgusting show of excess and stupidity.

I also think international competition is dumb. If it was up to me, they'd just cancel all the Olympics.

11 shots...

I wonder if he knows anybody else plays on his team...

Pretty sure he's just relaxing and waiting for the important games to come along.
- James_Tanner

In the last 10 years there's been 5 or 6 years, including last year, that I though should be the Caps year to take it all. I think it this year too. They've had some ridiculously deep and healthy teams.

Ovi seems to be a mixed bag in the playoffs. Has a monster game with 2 to 4 points and then some with none (this can be said about quite a few players, really)...and of course each version of a Capitals team he's been on since coming into the season has lost more playoff games than they've won.

In the last 10 years there's been 5 or 6 years, including last year, that I though should be the Caps year to take it all. I think it this year too. They've had some ridiculously deep and healthy teams.

Ovi seems to be a mixed bag in the playoffs. Has a monster game with 2 to 4 points and then some with none (this can be said about quite a few players, really)...and of course each version of a Capitals team he's been on since coming into the season has lost more playoff games than they've won.
- MattStrat

Ovechkin is a point-per=game playoff performer with 41 goals in 84 games and a 54% possession rating.

Whatever the reason that the Caps have never won, it sure has nothing to do with Ovechkin. What else is he supposed to do?

Ovechkin is a point-per=game playoff performer with 41 goals in 84 games and a 54% possession rating.

Whatever the reason that the Caps have never won, it sure has nothing to do with Ovechkin. What else is he supposed to do?
- James_Tanner

Be Canadian Darnit!

Unless the shots are from low scoring areas or from a weak shooter continually putting them right in the goalies number. (See Magnus pajaarvi) or a guy that continually struggles to get solid crisp Contact on his shots (see nail yakupov)

In these cases Luck would have almost nothing to do with it and the goalies will make easy stops.
And I think that's where backstroms words ring true.
A guy with the skills of Ovechkin is absolutely gonna pot 1 if he gets that shooting volume.
But there's a vast number of players far less skilled in getting the shot off quickly/able to generate the same velocity etc etc, that may not pot any. Which wouldn't be attributed to 'luck' in the least

There are currently 531 players in the NHL who have a 9% (1/11) shooting percentage or lower. Thats 63% of the nhl.

Is 63% of the NHL insanely unlucky? Or are some players better shooters then others?
- Cloud

By definition this wouldn't constitute bad luck. But the majority and the 'norm'

Unless the shots are from low scoring areas or from a weak shooter continually putting them right in the goalies number. (See Magnus pajaarvi) or a guy that continually struggles to get solid crisp Contact on his shots (see nail yakupov)

In these cases Luck would have almost nothing to do with it and the goalies will make easy stops.
And I think that's where backstroms words ring true.
A guy with the skills of Ovechkin is absolutely gonna pot 1 if he gets that shooting volume.
But there's a vast number of players far less skilled in getting the shot off quickly/able to generate the same velocity etc etc, that may not pot any. Which wouldn't be attributed to 'luck' in the least
- HB77

Where this breaks down is in what it takes to get high shot volume.

There are tons of guys who have better shooting percentages than Ovechkin.

On the shootout, he actually does terrible. It's not that his shot and release aren't awesome - they are - they just aren't that much better than the average NHL player.

The average NHL player is so much better than people think - we're talking about the 700 best in the entire world.

What separates OV from other players is the ability to get off consistently high shot volumes. It's the ability to actually get open to take a shot.

I don't care who you are, if you get 11 shots, you'll score. The fact is, in the NHL, you can get a few weak shots on the goalie, but over time, you can't play effectively in a way where that happens a lot in the NHL.

It's like how people think guys will just make lousy shot attempts to drive their corsi up. It's stupid because in a real game situation it just isn't going to happen - and if it could, it might be a good strategy.

Just throwing pucks at the net is probably the best thing you can do. Most goals don't occur because the player shot it hard or picked his spot perfectly. Most goals are just random results of shots.

Be Canadian Darnit!
- AdamFrench

Hah so true.

Ovechkin is a point-per=game playoff performer with 41 goals in 84 games and a 54% possession rating.

Whatever the reason that the Caps have never won, it sure has nothing to do with Ovechkin. What else is he supposed to do?
- James_Tanner

Win.

Make it out of 2nd round.

Do whatever it takes as a captain....I dont see him getting in front of many shots for instance.

Where this breaks down is in what it takes to get high shot volume.

There are tons of guys who have better shooting percentages than Ovechkin.

On the shootout, he actually does terrible. It's not that his shot and release aren't awesome - they are - they just aren't that much better than the average NHL player.

The average NHL player is so much better than people think - we're talking about the 700 best in the entire world.

What separates OV from other players is the ability to get off consistently high shot volumes. It's the ability to actually get open to take a shot.

I don't care who you are, if you get 11 shots, you'll score. The fact is, in the NHL, you can get a few weak shots on the goalie, but over time, you can't play effectively in a way where that happens a lot in the NHL.

It's like how people think guys will just make lousy shot attempts to drive their corsi up. It's stupid because in a real game situation it just isn't going to happen - and if it could, it might be a good strategy.

Just throwing pucks at the net is probably the best thing you can do. Most goals don't occur because the player shot it hard or picked his spot perfectly. Most goals are just random results of shots.
- James_Tanner

If 63% of players have a shooting percent of 9 or lower, the fact is that many of them wouldn't score a goal with 11 shots on net in a given night. One can even guess About half the time assuming that 9% is an average which includes periods where shot % is above that and periods where shot % is below that


So, more than half the players in the NHL (63%) potentially wouldn't score a goal on 11 shots half the time.

And again, this is where ovies skill comes into play to set him apart from that majority

First, I think the term "insanely" may have been slightly hyperbolic. Second, what kind of question is that? Obviously.

I will say this though - everyone in the NHL is a good shooter. It's a lot harder to get a high shot volume than to get a high shooting percentage.
- James_Tanner

Ovechkin has a 10.5% shooting percentage this year, which means he has an 89.5% chance not to score on any given shot. So if he gets 11 shots in a game, he has a 29.5% chance not to score a goal.

In other words, he'd be a little unlucky, but it certainly wouldn't be unexpected.

Ovechkin has a 10.5% shooting percentage this year, which means he has an 89.5% chance not to score on any given shot. So if he gets 11 shots in a game, he has a 29.5% chance not to score a goal.

In other words, he'd be a little unlucky, but it certainly wouldn't be unexpected.
- DonzoBean

Over the course of multiple games I think the term insanely unlucky would be apt as that percentage of not scoring would continue to drop . But in one game, 30% chance of something not occurring cant even be considered an outlier.

Win.

Make it out of 2nd round.

Do whatever it takes as a captain....I dont see him getting in front of many shots for instance.
- MattStrat

I hate this because why would Ovechkin block a shot? I'm sure he blocks some, i don't know the stats, but where is the risk reward of having him block shots, which is one of the dumbest things players do anyways.

If I was a coach, i'd tell my guys not to block shots. Goalies have pads for a reason.

new caps blogger?

If 63% of players have a shooting percent of 9 or lower, the fact is that many of them wouldn't score a goal with 11 shots on net in a given night.
In fact, It would happen far more often than to just be an outlier. One can even guess About half the time assuming that a 9% is an average which includes periods where shot % is above that and periods where shot % is below that


So, more than half the players in the NHL potentially wouldn't score a goal on 11 shots half the time.

And again, this is where ovies skill comes into play to set him apart from that majority
- HB77

. First of all, that number is probably skewed by the dozens of interchangable rookies and ahl spot starts used throughout the year.

Wouldn't it be far more accurate to just look at whatever the average shooting percentage was?

I think if you looked at the history of the NHL's 11 shot games, I'd bet 90% of them had a goal.

That being said, I was mostly just trying to make a joke about scoring a half-goal , i didn't really think through what I was saying very deeply and I'm likely totally wrong no matter how you look arrive at the numbers.

Ovechkin has a 10.5% shooting percentage this year, which means he has an 89.5% chance not to score on any given shot. So if he gets 11 shots in a game, he has a 29.5% chance not to score a goal.

In other words, he'd be a little unlucky, but it certainly wouldn't be unexpected.
- DonzoBean

The average NHL shooting percentage is about 9% or 1/11 anyways, and teams routinely take 11 shots and don't score. Other than the likely hood of a player who can actually get 11 shots in a game being well above average in the first place, there is no reason to expect that, on average, a player who takes 11 shots in a game wouldn't score, like you said, about 1/3 of the time.

I see now that I was completely wrong on the original statement. I guess Backstrom had a point afterall.

new caps blogger?
- Gerk

Yes

IDK. If a player is getting 11 shots ON GOAL he's playing at the top end of his game. I think that if any player manages to get 11 shots through there's a great chance that they score.