Jason Millen: Don't Believe the Hype Don’t Believe the Hype

The only spin I like on the difference without Backes/Brouwer is that it should open up ice time for the guys we're expecting to score goals.

Looks like opposing goalies are going to be a lot more comfortable though.

Jason,

Hope you have had a good summer.

As a fellow member of the goalie union, the biggest loss for you guys was Elliot. I feel like his loss wll be noticed early and often. Backes well past his prime may very well translate to addition by subtraction. Would you want to pay the contract he got from Boston?

Looks to me like every team in our division got worse. Maybe, maybe NSH shows some more life, but they need Rinne to be who he was a few years ago. I am not seeing that happen.

DAL still has no D and two goalies that can't take them to the promised land. MIN is still not deep enough to make a legit run.

CHI has perhaps the best D corps since their franchise resurrection, and a great goaltending tandem, but is missing a top six LW with any pedigree and a pretty new group of guys filling out the bottom six.

Will be a good season nonetheless. Looking forward to it and more good blogs from you.

Great read - makes me feel a little better to know other teams are going thru some turmoil - still think the blues are going to be formidable ... Any team with Tarasenko is a threat-

Nice blog! Blues should be a shoe in for the playoffs, interested to see what they do from now and then to improve there team for the next step, who are the break out candidates? Fabbri should have a big season. Cheers!

Great read - makes me feel a little better to know other teams are going thru some turmoil - still think the blues are going to be formidable ... Any team with Tarasenko is a threat-
- dozerD10

Hey man, what's your thoughts on Anderson? I liked the trade to acquire him but not sure about the contract right now. Hoping it works out for us, I don't know a ton about him.

Nice blog! Blues should be a shoe in for the playoffs, interested to see what they do from now and then to improve there team for the next step, who are the break out candidates? Fabbri should have a big season. Cheers!
- ClarksonDavid

I don't think they're a shoe-in anymore. Those are big losses with mediocre replacements. Plus, Steen is on the decline. Stastny IMO is the big X-factor. He's been somewhat of a disappointment, but if he can step it up into the 2nd line role they could maintain.

That being said, I think with CGY likely to fight for a playoff spot in the Pacific, I don't think we'll see five teams again in the Central. I think the Blues fight for 4th in the central.

Of course there's always the possibility of you guys moving a dman for a top-six guy.

I don't think they're a shoe-in anymore. Those are big losses with mediocre replacements. Plus, Steen is on the decline. Stastny IMO is the big X-factor. He's been somewhat of a disappointment, but if he can step it up into the 2nd line role they could maintain.

That being said, I think with CGY likely to fight for a playoff spot in the Pacific, I don't think we'll see five teams again in the Central. I think the Blues fight for 4th in the central.

Of course there's always the possibility of you guys moving a dman for a top-six guy.
- Rinosaur

You could be right. Lots of teams sure to improve in the west Edmonton Calgary Colorado come to mind to me forsure.

We are going to get a lot more out of Schwartz this year. He alone will make up for the majority, or all, of the difference in production with the forwards leaving/coming back.

Defense will continue to be strong. And I am not worried about goaltending either.

We are going to be different. But I think it is a good different, especially long term.

So, Nashville wins the central clean, right? They improved dramatically, while everyone aside from the Jets and Avs(just by getting rid of Roy) improved. It's a fight for 2nd-5th. The central will have both wild cards.
I predict:
Nashville*
Dallas*
Chicago*
St.Louis*
Winnipeg*
Minnesota
Colorado

*=playoffs.

We are going to get a lot more out of Schwartz this year. He alone will make up for the majority, or all, of the difference in production with the forwards leaving/coming back.

Defense will continue to be strong. And I am not worried about goaltending either.

We are going to be different. But I think it is a good different, especially long term.
- carcus

Yes, Schwartz having a healthy season, he's probably good for 25 to 30 goals.

I mean look, I don't have a horse in your race, so I have no feelings either way. I don't know that different is necessarily good. If Fabbri plays a more significant role... If Stastny... If Steen... I just think there are more "ifs" than you had before, but there's definitely some promising "ifs."

I just don't see you guys finishing as high, nor making it in comfortably.

I don't think they're a shoe-in anymore. Those are big losses with mediocre replacements. Plus, Steen is on the decline. Stastny IMO is the big X-factor. He's been somewhat of a disappointment, but if he can step it up into the 2nd line role they could maintain.

That being said, I think with CGY likely to fight for a playoff spot in the Pacific, I don't think we'll see five teams again in the Central. I think the Blues fight for 4th in the central.

Of course there's always the possibility of you guys moving a dman for a top-six guy.
- Rinosaur

Steen is no more on decline than Sharp or Hossa. Blackhawks lost as much upfront in Shaw as Blues did in Brouwer, and Blues replaced Backes scoring and have more youth expected to improve than Hawks. Dallas got worse on defense, the area they could least afford to. The teams near Blues should have the same small decline. And the teams behind... MN has done nothing to suggest a ten win improvement, nor Winnipeg anything to suggest a 15 win improvement. Colorado has done nothing at all.

I don't see a lot of reason for optimism about the Blues season because there isn't reason to expect them to go further in playoffs. But the idea that losing Backes will cost them over a dozen wins, which was the difference between them and missing playoffs last year, seems a little ludicrous, especially when you look at how little anyone else did to improve, and how much the other elite teams declined.

Stan & Q are just wondering when you guys are going back to the United Centre to fill in the big (frank)ing hole you dug when you dug the deepest you've ever dug before?

Stastny hyped you guys real good at 7 millions a year

Hey man, what's your thoughts on Anderson? I liked the trade to acquire him but not sure about the contract right now. Hoping it works out for us, I don't know a ton about him.
- ClarksonDavid

You will love FA - he is calm - plays the puck extremely well and moves very smoothly for a big man - he bailed the Ducks out of more than a few holes with big timely saves on some egregious turnovers - is he perfect .. no but for sure a solid upgrade from what you have been used to seeing -

Steen is no more on decline than Sharp or Hossa. Blackhawks lost as much upfront in Shaw as Blues did in Brouwer, and Blues replaced Backes scoring and have more youth expected to improve than Hawks. Dallas got worse on defense, the area they could least afford to. The teams near Blues should have the same small decline. And the teams behind... MN has done nothing to suggest a ten win improvement, nor Winnipeg anything to suggest a 15 win improvement. Colorado has done nothing at all.

I don't see a lot of reason for optimism about the Blues season because there isn't reason to expect them to go further in playoffs. But the idea that losing Backes will cost them over a dozen wins, which was the difference between them and missing playoffs last year, seems a little ludicrous, especially when you look at how little anyone else did to improve, and how much the other elite teams declined.
- Antilles

Going to be difficult to replace Shaw and what he brought. A net front presence and a guy who can slide up on any line... Probably one of Chicago's most 'versatile' forwards. One thing about the net front presence thing is that we had three last year - mostly Shaw, Anisimov, and Toews. Now that Shaw is gone, it's down to two and I think it's reasonable to think Q doesn't want Toews playing net front all the time. Should be an interesting season.

Good read Jammer.

Yes, Schwartz having a healthy season, he's probably good for 25 to 30 goals.

I mean look, I don't have a horse in your race, so I have no feelings either way. I don't know that different is necessarily good. If Fabbri plays a more significant role... If Stastny... If Steen... I just think there are more "ifs" than you had before, but there's definitely some promising "ifs."

I just don't see you guys finishing as high, nor making it in comfortably.
- Rinosaur

Fabbri will play a more significant role. There isn't a question about that.

Not worried about Steen. Health is his only question, and that is every year so that isn't new. Not worried about Stastny either.

Honestly, the Blues are going to still be very good and are going to be at the top of the best division in hockey.

So, Nashville wins the central clean, right? They improved dramatically, while everyone aside from the Jets and Avs(just by getting rid of Roy) improved. It's a fight for 2nd-5th. The central will have both wild cards.
I predict:
Nashville*
Dallas*
Chicago*
Minnesota*
St. Louis*
Winnipeg
Colorado

*=playoffs.
- Rexypoo

*Fixed* Minnesota is too deep defensively and now have BB as a coach to coax every ounce of offense out of the forwards. It'll be interesting to see how JA holds up as the undisputed #1 for a whole season. The Blues did get faster as a team by subtracting DB and TB which bodes well for them remaining highly competitive in the central.

What have all these other teams done to pass up the Blues?

We are not finishing 5th. Sorry.

What have all these other teams done to pass up the Blues?

We are not finishing 5th. Sorry.
- carcus

Yah that caught me off guard as well -

*Fixed* Minnesota is too deep defensively and now have BB as a coach to coax every ounce of offense out of the forwards. It'll be interesting to see how JA holds up as the undisputed #1 for a whole season. The Blues did get faster as a team by subtracting DB and TB which bodes well for them remaining highly competitive in the central.
- mnhockeyguy

Except Blues are deeper than MN defensively, and Hitchcock is a better coach.

Steen is no more on decline than Sharp or Hossa. Blackhawks lost as much upfront in Shaw as Blues did in Brouwer, and Blues replaced Backes scoring and have more youth expected to improve than Hawks. Dallas got worse on defense, the area they could least afford to. The teams near Blues should have the same small decline. And the teams behind... MN has done nothing to suggest a ten win improvement, nor Winnipeg anything to suggest a 15 win improvement. Colorado has done nothing at all.

I don't see a lot of reason for optimism about the Blues season because there isn't reason to expect them to go further in playoffs. But the idea that losing Backes will cost them over a dozen wins, which was the difference between them and missing playoffs last year, seems a little ludicrous, especially when you look at how little anyone else did to improve, and how much the other elite teams declined.
- Antilles

I'm not sure why you're comparing Steen to the others. Dallas and CHI both thinned out a little, but they didn't lose as significant amount of scoring as STL did in Backes and Brower. Steen's decline paired with losing two major offensive pieces has a more profound affect than CHI losing Shaw. Toews will not repeat his mediocre season from last year, so I expect CHI to have a more potent top-six than last year.

Dallas didn't get THAT much worse on defense. They lost Demers and Gogo, but they also picked up Hamuis. Hamuis may be on the decline, but he's as steady as they come and still great on the transition. He may even help improve weaknesses they had before.

The difference here is that I think other teams will be knocking on the door now. Yes, your defense will still be great, but your offense is going to suffer and your offense was very average to begin with.

Nashville should be a better team, albeit marginally, but I expect them to finish higher and you're going to have a big possibility that COL and WPG have improved seasons and fighting for that final spot.

Look, I'm not saying you guys don't make playoffs. I'm just saying you're not a 100% lock. Every year there's a surprise team that usurps a prior playoff team.

Except Blues are deeper than MN defensively, and Hitchcock is a better coach.
- Antilles

Except that the last time they played in the playoffs with almost the exact same D the wild won... and that was with an inferior coach to BB in Mike Yeo.

Jammer I think where the surprises lie are with some of the younger kids. I think MPS is going to be a lot better and Rattie has a knack for the net while his all around game has improved. Defensively the Blues are good. I do not think there is much to worry about here.

I'm not sure why you're comparing Steen to the others. Dallas and CHI both thinned out a little, but they didn't lose as significant amount of scoring as STL did in Backes and Brower. Steen's decline paired with losing two major offensive pieces has a more profound affect than CHI losing Shaw. Toews will not repeat his mediocre season from last year, so I expect CHI to have a more potent top-six than last year.

Dallas didn't get THAT much worse on defense. They lost Demers and Gogo, but they also picked up Hamuis. Hamuis may be on the decline, but he's as steady as they come and still great on the transition. He may even help improve weaknesses they had before.

The difference here is that I think other teams will be knocking on the door now. Yes, your defense will still be great, but your offense is going to suffer and your offense was very average to begin with.

Nashville should be a better team, albeit marginally, but I expect them to finish higher and you're going to have a big possibility that COL and WPG have improved seasons and fighting for that final spot.

Look, I'm not saying you guys don't make playoffs. I'm just saying you're not a 100% lock. Every year there's a surprise team that usurps a prior playoff team.
- Rinosaur

Losing scoring when losing Brouwer?
Losing a guy who could not score twenty goals on the season with all that pp time please. He was good in the play offs, but in his career last season was an outlier for his play off production.

Losing Backes sucks in some ways. But it will only suck for a year maybe two at the most and then the remaining three years would eat up too much cap. I doubt he has more than one season of production that equals the value of his contract.