James Tanner: PLUS/MINUS: On Rundblad, Team Canada and Various Philosophies
PLUS/MINUS: The blog that you love to love.

How do we know dawn braid is any good? I see no hero chart on her ability to teach others to skate? Seriously though, youre right, it is good for the sport. There's no reason women don't know just as much as men about the sport, and obviously she knows more than many. Hence her hiring.

Rundblad put up good numbers as a third pairing defenseman. This doesn't mean hes a top pairing defenseman. An NHL defenseman? Likely. A great NHL defenseman? God no. Those numbers will go to die as soon as his assignments start being against teams top lines. You need to actually watch players play the game before inducting them into the Hall. He does too many things wrong to even care about his corsi, ect.

John Q, one of the top coaches in hockey, literally played four defenseman instead of using rundblad on their last championship run. The times he did skate? Against fourth liners.

How do we know dawn braid is any good? I see no hero chart on her ability to teach others to skate? Seriously though, youre right, it is good for the sport. There's no reason women don't know just as much as men about the sport, and obviously she knows more than many. Hence her hiring.

Rundblad put up good numbers as a third pairing defenseman. This doesn't mean hes a top pairing defenseman. An NHL defenseman? Likely. A great NHL defenseman? God no. Those numbers will go to die as soon as his assignments start being against teams top lines. You need to actually watch players play the game before inducting them into the Hall. He does too many things wrong to even care about his corsi, ect.
- MarkStoned

The thing about that is that people have done the work again and again, and almost always if you can put up good numbers on the third pairing or 4th line, those numbers transfer as you move up the lineup.

Your post was good until you mentioned actually watching the games. I get paid to watch games, so believe me when I tell you, I watch them. Also, considering that Rundblad was on the Coyotes and I've been interested in him since they traded him, I have watched him play a ton.

The thing is, when you watch games, you see an error and you weigh that in your evaluation far more than you should. Errors matter, but over time, if your corsi is high and you're scoring at a decent rate, they don't matter as much as you think. It's simple confirmation bias at work.

Anyways, Rundblad has been extremely effective when he's played and while I am not saying he will be an elite top pairing player, he clearly limits offense against and creatives offense for at a rate that makes him valuable and should guarantee him a job in the NHL.

You know what else is entirely possible, and probable?
You are wrong on many levels about most things.
David Rundblad, again? Whoever posted yesterday that your blogs are really jokes, was correct. That goes for your politics as well.

Don't the Leafs employ a female skating coach Barb Underhill?

Rundblad again

The thing about that is that people have done the work again and again, and almost always if you can put up good numbers on the third pairing or 4th line, those numbers transfer as you move up the lineup.

Your post was good until you mentioned actually watching the games. I get paid to watch games, so believe me when I tell you, I watch them. Also, considering that Rundblad was on the Coyotes and I've been interested in him since they traded him, I have watched him play a ton.

The thing is, when you watch games, you see an error and you weigh that in your evaluation far more than you should. Errors matter, but over time, if your corsi is high and you're scoring at a decent rate, they don't matter as much as you think. It's simple confirmation bias at work.

Anyways, Rundblad has been extremely effective when he's played and while I am not saying he will be an elite top pairing player, he clearly limits offense against and creatives offense for at a rate that makes him valuable and should guarantee him a job in the NHL.
- James_Tanner

Except I don't think a third pairing D moves up very often and plays against a first line, so I'm not sure where the examples would come from.

Don't the Leafs employ a female skating coach Barb Underhill?

Rundblad again
- Garnie

Barb Underhill is a consultant, mostly for off-season training. Not a full-time member of the coaching staff.

She has a great reputation though. I think she has worked with The Ducks a few years ago, and at least 1 other team as well, (Tampa?)

FINALLY somebody had said that Leafs are not making so smart moves from analytics perspective this summer with Matt Marin, big not skilled draftees...I think this is Lous team and Dubas has hard time getting his voice heard.

The thing about that is that people have done the work again and again, and almost always if you can put up good numbers on the third pairing or 4th line, those numbers transfer as you move up the lineup.

Your post was good until you mentioned actually watching the games. I get paid to watch games, so believe me when I tell you, I watch them. Also, considering that Rundblad was on the Coyotes and I've been interested in him since they traded him, I have watched him play a ton.

The thing is, when you watch games, you see an error and you weigh that in your evaluation far more than you should. Errors matter, but over time, if your corsi is high and you're scoring at a decent rate, they don't matter as much as you think. It's simple confirmation bias at work.

Anyways, Rundblad has been extremely effective when he's played and while I am not saying he will be an elite top pairing player, he clearly limits offense against and creatives offense for at a rate that makes him valuable and should guarantee him a job in the NHL.
- James_Tanner

In fairness, you referred to him as a great player yesterday.

The thing is, when you watch games, you see an error and you weigh that in your evaluation far more than you should. Errors matter, but over time, if your corsi is high and you're scoring at a decent rate, they don't matter as much as you think. It's simple confirmation bias at work.


- James_Tanner

This is completely false and backwards. Errors matter more than you think, and they matter more than corsi does. Corsi is a team stat, not an individual stat. The confirmation bias here is looking at Runblad's stats and thinking they out weigh Runblad's actual play, and has more value than actually watching him play. Anyone who has actually watched Runblad play, knows that he is a borderline NHL player. Players stats can be padded by a number of factors, especially corsi.

Don't the Leafs employ a female skating coach Barb Underhill?

Rundblad again
- Garnie

Yes, but not full time.

Agree with your Team Canada comments.
For the Oilers, we need the Nuge as the best teams are strong down the centre and we are that now.
I have no confidence in Chiarelli for getting value in trades, so we best keep Ebs now & hope he snips a pile of goals this year. He does play on the perimeter and is weak defensively, but if he can find more room out there with some bigger linemates, it could be good.
You've been taking a lot of hits on Rundblad, but you've made your point so it will be interesting to see how he does going forward.

Except I don't think a third pairing D moves up very often and plays against a first line, so I'm not sure where the examples would come from.
- Garnie

That happens all the time. Literally every game. It's incredibly hard to get favorable matchups because of the amount of time that players change on the fly, and because the other coach is always anticipating and reacting to your moves.

The net result is that players face nearly every player on the other team ever game. This is partly why QOC isn't a widely respected stat - over time, there is very little difference between who you play against.

The thing about that is that people have done the work again and again, and almost always if you can put up good numbers on the third pairing or 4th line, those numbers transfer as you move up the lineup.

Your post was good until you mentioned actually watching the games. I get paid to watch games, so believe me when I tell you, I watch them. Also, considering that Rundblad was on the Coyotes and I've been interested in him since they traded him, I have watched him play a ton.

The thing is, when you watch games, you see an error and you weigh that in your evaluation far more than you should. Errors matter, but over time, if your corsi is high and you're scoring at a decent rate, they don't matter as much as you think. It's simple confirmation bias at work.

Anyways, Rundblad has been extremely effective when he's played and while I am not saying he will be an elite top pairing player, he clearly limits offense against and creatives offense for at a rate that makes him valuable and should guarantee him a job in the NHL.
- James_Tanner

Except you did say he was likely a good top pairing defenseman? He does not clear the net(weber) his stick is not overly good (Duncan Kieth) he lacks integral components of a top four defenseman. These things limit high danger scoring chances if you'd prefer a statistical argument.

Sure he can move the puck as well as get it out of his end. That's great. Third pairing defenseman he likely is. NHL defenseman he surely is. Top four defenseman he is not. He turns the puck over more than subban, without the thundering checks and elite offense to excuse it. Hes susceptible to a heavy forecheck. He lacks all the non shot based metrics that are also important to winning. The thing is, and NHL coaches know this, one mistake can cost you a championship. This is why safe defenseman are still a priority. You do not win a Stanley cup because you win more over time. You have your elite puck movers to move the puck. Everyone else needs to not make mistakes. If your skill set is that of a puck movers but most teams have players better at that job, why give you their minutes? And why bury you in the defensive end where your mistakes cost us games?

This is why he cannot find a job.

Agree with your Team Canada comments.
For the Oilers, we need the Nuge as the best teams are strong down the centre and we are that now.
I have no confidence in Chiarelli for getting value in trades, so we best keep Ebs now & hope he snips a pile of goals this year. He does play on the perimeter and is weak defensively, but if he can find more room out there with some bigger linemates, it could be good.
You've been taking a lot of hits on Rundblad, but you've made your point so it will be interesting to see how he does going forward.
- haymac

Yeah, thanks for the intelligent comment. The point of talking about Rundblad so much is to illustrate that there is still a wide divide in the game between certain ways of thinking. Given his track record, him not having a contract is pretty ridiculous.

When calling someone the worst, maybe it isn't a good idea to see how he ranks against A goalie. Maybe the 28 other starters might have something to say on that.

Except you did say he was likely a good top pairing defenseman? He does not clear the net(weber) his stick is not overly good (Duncan Kieth) he lacks integral components of a top four defenseman. These things limit high danger scoring chances if you'd prefer a statistical argument.

This is your opinion, and it's against what the stats say. He limits offense against and creates offense for. Not sure what else a Defenseman is supposed to do. Not sure it matters how he does it, if, at the end of the day, it's effective.


Sure he can move the puck as well as get it out of his end. That's great. Third pairing defenseman he likely is. NHL defenseman he surely is. Top four defenseman he is not.


The fact you say that so confidently while literally every single thing we have to measure the performance of a hockey player says the opposite is why I'm writing this blog.



He turns the puck over more than subban, without the thundering checks and elite offense to excuse it. Hes susceptible to a heavy forecheck. He lacks all the non shot based metrics that are also important to winning. The thing is, and NHL coaches know this, one mistake can cost you a championship. This is why safe defenseman are still a priority. You do not win a Stanley cup because you win more over time. You have your elite puck movers to move the puck. Everyone else needs to not make mistakes. If your skill set is that of a puck movers but most teams have players better at that job, why give you their minutes? And why bury you in the defensive end where your mistakes cost us games?

This is why he cannot find a job.
- MarkStoned

When calling someone the worst, maybe it isn't a good idea to see how he ranks against A goalie. Maybe the 28 other starters might have something to say on that.
- Pelle31Forever

Have fun playing with the charts yourself. Pekka Rinne is no longer an above average starting goalie. He is among the very worst.

Yeah, thanks for the intelligent comment. The point of talking about Rundblad so much is to illustrate that there is still a wide divide in the game between certain ways of thinking. Given his track record, him not having a contract is pretty ridiculous.
- James_Tanner

His track record is why he doesn't have a contract at this point. I don't think there are many people who follow the game, who share your way of thinking. I doubt you could get Kyle Dubas, or John Chayka to agree with your way of thinking on Runblad. I doubt you get anyone involved with an NHL team to agree with you.

When calling someone the worst, maybe it isn't a good idea to see how he ranks against A goalie. Maybe the 28 other starters might have something to say on that.
- Pelle31Forever

I don't often agree with Tanner, but the chart he posted has a nifty line called league average.

'PLUS: My brother got us tickets for a pennant race game between the Red Sox and Blue Jays. I have never watched or attended any sporting event and this is pretty exciting.'

Fixed

Have fun playing with the charts yourself. Pekka Rinne is no longer an above average starting goalie. He is among the very worst.
- James_Tanner

Ok, so not THE worst.

I don't often agree with Tanner, but the chart he posted has a nifty line called league average.
- Mr.Bobby

Understood, but again, the worst? Where's the data on that?

Not so sure I agree that this generation of men is all that different when it pertains to its treatment of women. I see disgusting comments about women on this site that I don't think the boomers would ever say. People get banned all the time but never for degrading women. This internet generation has grown up with unlimited access to porn where anything goes. It has shaped how men see women and how young women see themselves.

I agree the gay community has made significant gains but I fear women might be worse off. Reading posts about the Olympics the comments about female athletes were rarely about talent.

Good blog as usual Jim. Cheers

[quote=James_Tanner]


Ignoring the most significant part of my post is sound strategy I suppose. He may be a fit on the rangers or Boston who are in need of a puck mover. Most other teams have guys better at the job.