Todd Cordell: New Jersey Devils: On Smith-Pelly's Expected Regression + Prove It Deals

I don't like your constant negative vibes towards DSP. Ever think maybe a change of scenery is what he needed? He obviously has the tools as he has shown, almost every game he played for the Devils. I'm sure he'll be way more productive than Ryder and Clowe.

Time to get off that hate train.

Stempniak and Smith-Pelly both excelled at top line RW with the Devils last year. Do you think there is something about this system that compliments their syle of play or do you think it is just better results from a chance with higher caliber line mates?

It's fair to expect DSP to regress in terms of point production (and he did toward the end of the season) but that overlooks his real value. The guy is hard on the puck, goes to the front of the net, brings some physically play and can score.

Shero traded a prospect who couldn't keep himself in the lineup for a guy who didn't embarrass himself playing on the top line at times last year.

I don't like your constant negative vibes towards DSP. Ever think maybe a change of scenery is what he needed? He obviously has the tools as he has shown, almost every game he played for the Devils. I'm sure he'll be way more productive than Ryder and Clowe.

Time to get off that hate train.
- Leniwm1

Todd is somewhat Spock like when it comes to statistical analysis. The numbers point to x and he advises accordingly. Its the logical assumption that DSP's numbers will decline, I don't think Todd is a DSP hater lol.

I won't say he will put 40-50 points. I think he will productive, and with a full year under his belt I think he will be a guy that will hit 30+ points for us give or take. He has the tools... I think its better than having Tootoos, ruuts and giontas, plus he is young

"I don't like your constant negative vibes towards DSP. Ever think maybe a change of scenery is what he needed? He obviously has the tools as he has shown, almost every game he played for the Devils. I'm sure he'll be way more productive than Ryder and Clowe.

Time to get off that hate train.
- Leniwm1"

Ya I know. But all numbers show is information about the past. The future is unknown and cannot be dictated by past numbers. Spock would tell you that. There is a reason why people always have 'career years', and I think we will be as surprised with DSP's season as we were with Palms. Im excited!

"I don't like your constant negative vibes towards DSP. Ever think maybe a change of scenery is what he needed? He obviously has the tools as he has shown, almost every game he played for the Devils. I'm sure he'll be way more productive than Ryder and Clowe.

Time to get off that hate train.
- Leniwm1"

Ya I know. But all numbers show is information about the past. The future is unknown and cannot be dictated by past numbers. Spock would tell you that. There is a reason why people always have 'career years', and I think we will be as surprised with DSP's season as we were with Palms. Im excited!
- Leniwm1

I agree with you, I think once gets fully use to the system he will be productive 30+ for sure

"I don't like your constant negative vibes towards DSP. Ever think maybe a change of scenery is what he needed? He obviously has the tools as he has shown, almost every game he played for the Devils. I'm sure he'll be way more productive than Ryder and Clowe.

Time to get off that hate train.
- Leniwm1"

Ya I know. But all numbers show is information about the past. The future is unknown and cannot be dictated by past numbers. Spock would tell you that. There is a reason why people always have 'career years', and I think we will be as surprised with DSP's season as we were with Palms. Im excited!
- Leniwm1

In what world do you not use past information to find trends as a way to make predictions for the future.

"I don't like your constant negative vibes towards DSP. Ever think maybe a change of scenery is what he needed? He obviously has the tools as he has shown, almost every game he played for the Devils. I'm sure he'll be way more productive than Ryder and Clowe.

Time to get off that hate train.
- Leniwm1"

Ya I know. But all numbers show is information about the past. The future is unknown and cannot be dictated by past numbers. Spock would tell you that. There is a reason why people always have 'career years', and I think we will be as surprised with DSP's season as we were with Palms. Im excited!
- Leniwm1

I think DSP could really have a great year also. If he ends up playing with Hall and Henrique I could see him having a career year for sure. It will be awesome if he can continue to play even close to the way he did when he came over. He had that "F" you for trading me attitude, which I am hoping to see from Hall this year. Good stuff.

We should probably get mad and whine because our blogger, who is doing a fine job, thinks stats point towards a regression for DSP. Maybe if we're lucky we can get Todd real pissed off and wind up with Sam Woo blogging for us again.

If the numbers don't say, Todd, and most of the rest of the Internet keyboard warriors, will dismiss it.

Sometimes players improve because of roles they are asked to fill, or linemates they get to play with. Sometimes it is because a trade provides a kick in the pants, or frees them from a toxic situation.

But, in explaining why pitch counts became so popular during the beginning of the baseball analytics phase, Rick Peterson explained ' Not everyone knows that much about pitching, but everyone knows how to count."

We should probably get mad and whine because our blogger, who is doing a fine job, thinks stats point towards a regression for DSP. Maybe if we're lucky we can get Todd real pissed off and wind up with Sam Woo blogging for us again.
- Mr.Bobby

I hope you don't think I was whining. I think Todd does a great job. He is just straight forward when it comes to numbers - I am cool with that.

umm todd. what would you do with Josefson? give him 5 years 10 million or 3 years 3 million. his agent probably wouldn't agree to the latter. same for Bennett. you think he would sign a 4 year deal worth 7 million? it's just lazy writing. tge team should have given up on jj already. and dsp is not a sniper his % means much less. he gets dirty goals so i assume he will be shooting over 10%

umm todd. what would you do with Josefson? give him 5 years 10 million or 3 years 3 million. his agent probably wouldn't agree to the latter. same for Bennett. you think he would sign a 4 year deal worth 7 million? it's just lazy writing. tge team should have given up on jj already. and dsp is not a sniper his % means much less. he gets dirty goals so i assume he will be shooting over 10%

- creek

Not sure if you're being sarcastic, but there's no way JJ gets offers that look anything like those. First off, when you offer more term, it's with a lower AAV, so if you'd have two offers of 3 and 5 years, the 5 year deal isn't going to have a $2M AAV and the 3 year deal a $1M AAV. At best, unless he magically starts to score a lot more, he gets offered deals like 1/$1.5M, 2/$2.25M, or maybe at most 3/$3M.

As for DSP, how in the world does his shooting % not mean much? Even if he's a dirty goal guy that doesn't shoot much, his career shooting % would reflect that all the same. As of now, it's at 7.5% over what is just under two full seasons, what would make anyone think he'll shoot at double that percentage over an extended period of time? Just because he did it over the course of a couple dozen games in no way shows he'll be able to do so over a full season or longer.

We should probably get mad and whine because our blogger, who is doing a fine job, thinks stats point towards a regression for DSP. Maybe if we're lucky we can get Todd real pissed off and wind up with Sam Woo blogging for us again.

I agree. Todd is doing a great job and is using past performance to try to accurately predict the future.

While i agree that his S% and rate at which he was producing will certainly get back down to normal, I dont think it is outlandish to hope that if he gets significant time on a line with hall and henrique and maybe some pp time in front of the goalie, 15g 20a is too far out of reach.

He seemed to know his role, be good in the corners than go to the front of the net. alot of his goals for us were him being hard on the puck and banging in rebounds in front, and hall is a great passer/playmaker, so i am optimistic.

In what world do you not use past information to find trends as a way to make predictions for the future.
- Pomegrant

My world.

But I agree, Todd does splendid work. He is the "Doc" of blogging. Now, if we can get Doc back to Devil hockey... all would be well in the world.

Todd Cordell: New Jersey Devils: On Smith-Pelly's Expected Regression + Prove It Deals
- Todd.Cordell

I think dsp will fix himself in the bottom 6 this season

Putting too much stock into shooting %. It does not take into account what role, linemates, and most importantly what type of opportunity the shot was. Huge difference between a guy coming in on a break away or say someone shooting for a rebound. Now I'm not suggesting DSP will score at the rate he did last year but I think he will be a good player and he showed no reason to think otherwise. Nothing wrong with playing third line RW.