Ryan Wilson: 2016-17 Point Projections For Pittsburgh's Core Players 2016-17 Point Projections For Pittsburgh's Core Players

Hi Ladies

MAF had a pts/60 of 0.01733 last season. Do you think things will be looking better for him next season?

Johnston was so good at stifling the Penguins offense.

Most of this is reasonable but the one that sticks out as "no way" to me is Letang at 81 pts which is a stretch to say the least

Karlsson, who is far superior offensively to pretty much every other dman in the league, just became the first 82+ point dman since what, Brian Leetch?

I am really confused right now. Bill Lindsey of NHL Network constantly reminds everyone how Sidney Crosby took the first half of last season. More than a few people agreed with that statement including many people in the area and on this board. Strip Sid of the captaincy was their mantra.

Reading the article (yes I do read the articles) it is suggested that quite a few people took the first half off, including Jim Rutherford. He waited until he had no choice but to fire Mike Johnston and then brought in two good players. The two that left, David Perron started to light things up immediately for Anaheim and Rob Scuderi played better after leaving. I can only assume they didn't realize that it would cost them a championship by taking half the season off.

1) how did u determine the minutes each player would get for this season?

2) how can u say that someone's pts per 60 will be the same as last year?
-isn't it more likely that each player's production would either go up or down?

Most of this is reasonable but the one that sticks out as "no way" to me is Letang at 81 pts which is a stretch to say the least

Karlsson, who is far superior offensively to pretty much every other dman in the league, just became the first 82+ point dman since what, Brian Leetch?
- hawkeytalkman

Karlsson was 20 points higher than the next closest player on his team. Letang merely needs to stay in line with Crosby and Malkin.

Granted all the totals are best case scenario but they are attainable.

Most of this is reasonable but the one that sticks out as "no way" to me is Letang at 81 pts which is a stretch to say the least

Karlsson, who is far superior offensively to pretty much every other dman in the league, just became the first 82+ point dman since what, Brian Leetch?
- hawkeytalkman

and he did that without a team that has 2 elite centers, and a sniper like Kessel. So I don' think it's a stretch at all for an elite offensive defenseman to eclipse 80 points, when the majority of your ice time will be with Sid, Geno, Kessel, and co.

Most of this is reasonable but the one that sticks out as "no way" to me is Letang at 81 pts which is a stretch to say the least

Karlsson, who is far superior offensively to pretty much every other dman in the league, just became the first 82+ point dman since what, Brian Leetch?
- hawkeytalkman

Whill I don't think anyone would argue that Karlsson is the superior offensive player, quality of teammates can figure heavily into a players point production and Letang has a huge advantage of Karlsson in that respect. I'm not saying I think Letang will hit 81pts but I do think that if both play the same number of games their production can/will be very close because of the boost Letang gets from playing with players like Crosby, Malkin & Kessel.

According to this, Letang is going to have one hell of a year!

Letang should come down to if he plays the whole season.

He had 67 pts in 71 games this year. In 82 games that projects to 76 pts on just a points per game basis which is only 5 less than 81. Being that offense on the team increased significantly later in the season 81 is quite possible.

Most of this is reasonable but the one that sticks out as "no way" to me is Letang at 81 pts which is a stretch to say the least

Karlsson, who is far superior offensively to pretty much every other dman in the league, just became the first 82+ point dman since what, Brian Leetch?
- hawkeytalkman

81 points isn't a TOTAL stretch to me because Sully's system has really opened up Letang's game, but I think 75 points is more realistic.

Also, the big X-factor is how many games Letang will play next year. Even relatively healthy players don't always play 82 games. I'm expecting between 70 to 75 games out of Letang.

My guess is he registers around 15-17 goals / 50 to 55 assists.

@hawkeytalkman:

I'd be very surprised if Tanger hit close to PPG, as I would be very surprised if Karlsson pulled it off again. However, after December, Letang actually produced more tangible offense than Karlsson. I'm not saying Letang is better offensively than Karlsson, by he's in the elite echelon, and his quality of teammates probably boosts him over the skill gap. Like I said, I'd be surprised if he hits PPG, but given the minutes he logs, his quality of teammates, and how he played during the second half of last season under sully, Letang hitting PPG wouldn't be coming completely out of left field.

Most of this is reasonable but the one that sticks out as "no way" to me is Letang at 81 pts which is a stretch to say the least

Karlsson, who is far superior offensively to pretty much every other dman in the league, just became the first 82+ point dman since what, Brian Leetch?
- hawkeytalkman

Wouldn't be surprised if Ottawa's staff had Karlsson tone down his offensive stats a touch and concentrate on defense a bit more. That defense gave up a ton of shots last year.

Wouldn't be surprised if Ottawa's staff had Karlsson tone down his offensive stats a touch and concentrate on defense a bit more. That defense gave up a ton of shots last year.
- Oneonta Penguin

Did Ottawa hire Mike Johnston?

Pitt sports media news:

Jason Mackey resigned from DK and will now be covering the Pens for another outlet. It's a shame he's leaving DK because I subscribe to that site and he was always good on Morning Java and cranked out good content on the Steelers, but I always liked his articles on the Pens when he filled in for Josh, so it'll be cool to have both him and Josh on the Pens full time now.

Nice to see some forward protections from you Gunner.

I wonder how opposing coaches will try & stifle the speed of the Pens this coming season. It's something playing surprise hockey when no one saw the changes coming last season, but now everyone has had a chance to study the tapes (so to speak as they're now data files on some type of HD ), what tactics will be employed by teams??? I wonder what Sully has up his sleeve once teams start defending against the Pens speed??

I'd be interested in getting what everyone thinks about how teams (the Hawks specifically), have stayed fresh & been able to defeat any tactics teams played to stop their offence?? What game plans did they employ or alter to stay ahead of the opposition?? How have they continued to win? LA also did it a couple of times, but then seemed to fall behind once everyone realised they were a dump & forecheck (heavy heavy forecheck), team.

From that, how long can teams continue to play the same way & have success??

Did Ottawa hire Mike Johnston?
- TheGame316

Close: Guy Boucher.

Nice to see some forward protections from you Gunner.

I wonder how opposing coaches will try & stifle the speed of the Pens this coming season. It's something playing surprise hockey when no one saw the changes coming last season, but now everyone has had a chance to study the tapes (so to speak as they're now data files on some type of HD ), what tactics will be employed by teams??? I wonder what Sully has up his sleeve once teams start defending against the Pens speed??

I'd be interested in getting what everyone thinks about how teams (the Hawks specifically), have stayed fresh & been able to defeat any tactics teams played to stop their offence?? What game plans did they employ or alter to stay ahead of the opposition?? How have they continued to win? LA also did it a couple of times, but then seemed to fall behind once everyone realised they were a dump & forecheck (heavy heavy forecheck), team.

From that, how long can teams continue to play the same way & have success??
- Aussiepenguin

Regular Season vs. Playoffs

Golden State is a better regular season than playoff team (spurs too) because their systems are different than most teams. But in the playoffs teams that had better athletes were able to make adjustments that slowed them down (different next year for GS because Durant is physically dominant). For one game its difficult to make major adjustments. Basically if a team has a day or two to implement something to counter the Pens it would be difficult. For divisional games I'd expect more adjustments since they play a lot of games against each other. Playoffs next year will be interesting though. A full year and proper time to make adjustments. That being said there are not a lot of adjustments you can make when facing better depth and better athletes. Easier to make adjustments over time to a team getting by on a unique system. Tougher to make adjustments to a team running an honest system well that has more talent.

Somewhat reminds me of the Rangers series. People made remarks that the Rangers didn't make adjustments. But it felt to me that they just didn't have enough talent. They make one adjustment and then a different line is facing weaker match-ups.

Most of this is reasonable but the one that sticks out as "no way" to me is Letang at 81 pts which is a stretch to say the least

Karlsson, who is far superior offensively to pretty much every other dman in the league, just became the first 82+ point dman since what, Brian Leetch?
- hawkeytalkman

letang had a 0.94 ppg this year and was hurt. if he stays healthy for the season and considering he plays better with sully 80+ points would come as no suprise at all.

I disagree on your Dumoulin projection of course. His scoring numbers were pretty good in the AHL and one playoff year in particular he was almost a point per game. Watching him live at the rookie tournament 2 years in a row last year and the previous one, where he was the captain of the team and the offense was facilitated through him he looked like he could more than efficiently facilitate the offensive attack. Maybe this year he will be a 20-30 point player but I am willing to bet that with the new found faith in him as a player by the coaching staff I can see this year being a jump off for a very well rounded 2'way game. Hopefully this is not the year he reaches his potential though, it would be nice to sign him to a 5-7 year deal in the 4 mill range and then have him blow the doors off ability wise. In pile consider this year a great success from the backend if Pouliot, Maatta, Dumoulin, and Shultz each take a big step forward development wise. If they do and one of Prow or Bengsston and one of the 2 dmen we drafted this past draft take a huge leap ..d the future will be looking pretty good. I'm quite happy with Letang playing 10 more years as the guy to beat, that's quite the bar being set. I don't know what here these

I disagree on your Dumoulin projection of course. His scoring numbers were pretty good in the AHL and one playoff year in particular he was almost a point per game. Watching him live at the rookie tournament 2 years in a row last year and the previous one, where he was the captain of the team and the offense was facilitated through him he looked like he could more than efficiently facilitate the offensive attack. Maybe this year he will be a 20-30 point player but I am willing to bet that with the new found faith in him as a player by the coaching staff I can see this year being a jump off for a very well rounded 2'way game. Hopefully this is not the year he reaches his potential though, it would be nice to sign him to a 5-7 year deal in the 4 mill range and then have him blow the doors off ability wise. In pile consider this year a great success from the backend if Pouliot, Maatta, Dumoulin, and Shultz each take a big step forward development wise. If they do and one of Prow or Bengsston and one of the 2 dmen we drafted this past draft take a huge leap ..d the future will be looking pretty good. I'm quite happy with Letang playing 10 more years as the guy to beat, that's quite the bar being set. I don't know what here these
- Dcoms

If Dumo is with Letang, I'd say 30+ is more than reasonable. If with Daley, ~20 seems about right. Same for Maatta really, they are the more defensive minded Dman in those pairings and the points "should" reflect that.

I disagree on your Dumoulin projection of course. His scoring numbers were pretty good in the AHL and one playoff year in particular he was almost a point per game. Watching him live at the rookie tournament 2 years in a row last year and the previous one, where he was the captain of the team and the offense was facilitated through him he looked like he could more than efficiently facilitate the offensive attack. Maybe this year he will be a 20-30 point player but I am willing to bet that with the new found faith in him as a player by the coaching staff I can see this year being a jump off for a very well rounded 2'way game. Hopefully this is not the year he reaches his potential though, it would be nice to sign him to a 5-7 year deal in the 4 mill range and then have him blow the doors off ability wise. In pile consider this year a great success from the backend if Pouliot, Maatta, Dumoulin, and Shultz each take a big step forward development wise. If they do and one of Prow or Bengsston and one of the 2 dmen we drafted this past draft take a huge leap ..d the future will be looking pretty good. I'm quite happy with Letang playing 10 more years as the guy to beat, that's quite the bar being set. I don't know what here these
- Dcoms

4 per seems like pipe dream to me unless it's a bridge to Ufa. Dumoulin seems like a bigger Martin who years ago got 5 per from us ufa. Old man Martin just got close to 5 on a contract where he's likely to blow on the back end. I'd say on a pure Ufa contract dumo will be 5.25 to 5.75 even if point production ends up around 20. If he adds that to his game and hits 40 he's going to be expensive. Maata got 4 per year but he's had injuries and it's mostly rfa years

If we do a dumo deal before the season starts and he's only had one good year then maybe 4.25 gets it done with a few Ufa years bought out.