Jason Millen: Blues vs. Blackhawks Series Review – Jammer’s Keys Blues vs. Blackhawks Series Review – Jammer’s Keys

4 down, 12 to go.

4 down, 12 to go.


- carcus

Not over confident here. 25% is still failing. Use the CPA score for pass/fail. Under that scenario you don't even pass until you get to the SCF.

4 down, 12 to go.


- carcus

Nobody got my crappy midnight graphic design project

Blues were out possessed, out shot, out scored, and gave up more power plays in the Hawks series. The difference was Elliott (and a double poster).

Used to write that on the dry erase board in my office during each run. When I retired last year, the only thing left on that board was: "16 down, zero to go"

Perhaps your guys can do the same in about seven weeks.

Nice write-up, Jammer. It was a great series, with a razor-thin difference between the teams. Whether it was fatigue, injury or whatever, the Hawks' best players did not perform to expectations, while the Blues got studly performances from 91, Elliott and Parayko. That was the difference. Best of luck to you guys going forward ....

Congrats on a great win and series, though I would have preferred a different outcome . That really did feel like a conference final game. I think that this Blues team has a good shot moving ahead. Looking forward to Stars/Blues.

Blues were out possessed, out shot, out scored, and gave up more power plays in the Hawks series. The difference was Elliott (and a double poster).
- the_voice

No doubt that it was a pretty even series in which goaltending played a big role in deciding it. Elliott was a big part of the difference but other stuff you mention can be misleading.

Some of the "advanced" stats favor shots way too much without consideration of the type of shots. In one of the games, Elliott faced 14 in one first period when the Blues were outshot about 2 to 1. A Junior B level goalie likely would have stopped all 14 though the "advanced" stats likely said the Hawks big time outplayed the Blues even though the Blues were more likely to actually score in that period.

Looking a bit deeper... Blues outscored Chicago when goalies were actually in the net, defending it. Blues had more high-danger scoring chances for.

Such an amazing series. I can't believe how close these teams were every day. It really is a shame this was only a WCQF match up.

Blues were lucky and took advantage of a depleted defense made worse by Keith's 1 game absence. To the Blues credit the second line of Panarin, Kane, and Anisimov all but disappeared, forcing Quenville to go to the line blender. He couldn't roll 4 except in game 6, even though Bowman gave him an abundance to work with at forward. The MIA #4D slot (not really filled well by rookie TVR) was exploited and Crow was tested time after time. Elliott was outstanding especially in games 1 and 3 stopping multiple breakaways by all the Hawk top forwards. HE WAS THE DIFFERENCE IN THIS SERIES! Add Tarasenko's production and timely goals which were absent in prior years. I can only imagine had Sobotka not bolted for the KHL how the last 2 1st round series would have gone.
That said the Blues won by 1 garbage goal on a rookie turnover during a line change, where Brower got 3 whacks at it before it went in.
Dallas will be a better opponent, but I see the Blues winning in 6, now that they have shaken the 1st round elimination jinkx. If the Ducks lose tonite, it will NEVER be easier to win the West than now.

No doubt that it was a pretty even series in which goaltending played a big role in deciding it. Elliott was a big part of the difference but other stuff you mention can be misleading.

Some of the "advanced" stats favor shots way too much without consideration of the type of shots. In one of the games, Elliott faced 14 in one first period when the Blues were outshot about 2 to 1. A Junior B level goalie likely would have stopped all 14 though the "advanced" stats likely said the Hawks big time outplayed the Blues even though the Blues were more likely to actually score in that period.

Looking a bit deeper... Blues outscored Chicago when goalies were actually in the net, defending it. Blues had more high-danger scoring chances for.
- Jason Millen

That last point hits on the biggest 'Hawks issue. Not having a true 4D, someone many of us lamented going into and following the TDL, was key in their undoing. Many of those chances never get to the net. And if you think how Oduya / Hammer were the shut down pair, along with Keith and Seabs, you see how they won in '13 and '15. Bowman had better figure out how he gets that 4D man.

Good luck in big-D.

That last point hits on the biggest 'Hawks issue. Not having a true 4D, someone many of us lamented going into and following the TDL, was key in their undoing. Many of those chances never get to the net. And if you think how Oduya / Hammer were the shut down pair, along with Keith and Seabs, you see how they won in '13 and '15. Bowman had better figure out how he gets that 4D man.

Good luck in big-D.
- blackhawk24

Yeah, even if Daley would've figured out how to fit into the system, he would not have been a big shot blocking threat.

Honestly, with the exception of a couple of mistakes, I didn't think TVR played that bad...

You guys have a ton of love for Johnny Oduya. Is he your Bryce Salvador?

You guys have a ton of love for Johnny Oduya. Is he your Bryce Salvador?
- eggsegan

I think that is a decent comparable though Oduya was a notch above Salvadar in this comparison imho.

Hawks did have slightly more shots/scoring chances. But as was also pointed out STL had slightly more high danger chances. Either way it was incredibly close, they could have played 100 games and probably would have split 50/50. Blues deserved to win that 7 game series though because their big guns finished on more scoring chances in the 7 games than the hawks big guns did, and the Hawks lack of quality depth on D was too much to overcome.

Yeah, even if Daley would've figured out how to fit into the system, he would not have been a big shot blocking threat.

Honestly, with the exception of a couple of mistakes, I didn't think TVR played that bad...

You guys have a ton of love for Johnny Oduya. Is he your Bryce Salvador?
- eggsegan

TVR really impressed me and is a solid #4 option. But when you literally have NOBODY else that can play 10+ mins without getting abused and costing goals against, those top 4 will crack. When the Hawks had that mighty top 4 last year they at least still had Rozy and then later TVR in the SCF to give a few extra minutes to. This time around as it turned out Rozy, Rundblad, and Gustafsson were all so incredibly bad that the top 4 couldn't sustain the extra added pressure to perform.

Elliot did outplay Crawford but it's not like Crawford gave up a bunch of weak ones and lost the series single handed.

If not for the video review, this series is over last week in a sweep. Chicago's top players were able to push it to the seventh game with a little help from the refs, but in the end, it was those same top players who after a long series of overuse, could not hang with the deeper, more well balanced team. Just look at the game 7 stats.

Keith, 1 assist, -2
Kane, 0 points, -3
Toews, 1 assist, -1
Seabrook, 0 points, -2

TVR really impressed me and is a solid #4 option. But when you literally have NOBODY else that can play 10+ mins without getting abused and costing goals against, those top 4 will crack. When the Hawks had that mighty top 4 last year they at least still had Rozy and then later TVR in the SCF to give a few extra minutes to. This time around as it turned out Rozy, Rundblad, and Gustafsson were all so incredibly bad that the top 4 couldn't sustain the extra added pressure to perform.
- SimpleJack

It would be interesting to see how TVR would have done even with say 20 minutes vs 24 minutes of ice time. More around Parayko minutes adjusted for PP differential for example. Again, not that he played bad especially given his age, role, etc.

IMHO being able to get 25 minutes out of your bottom pair can make a big difference. Assume you get 80 minutes from your top 3. You only need 15 minutes from your #4.

I think the balance is more like 26 minutes bottom pair, 20-22 minutes for your #4, 72-74 minutes from your top 3. You shift minutes down where you can, if you can. Not much opportunity for those kinds of things in this series though.

TVR really impressed me and is a solid #4 option. But when you literally have NOBODY else that can play 10+ mins without getting abused and costing goals against, those top 4 will crack. When the Hawks had that mighty top 4 last year they at least still had Rozy and then later TVR in the SCF to give a few extra minutes to. This time around as it turned out Rozy, Rundblad, and Gustafsson were all so incredibly bad that the top 4 couldn't sustain the extra added pressure to perform.
- SimpleJack

I'll be interested to see what Stan bo does this summer. Obviously he needs some help on D but he also has many holes to fill at the forward position.

I think TVR is good enough now that you could pencil him into the top 4 next year. This year was maybe a little too early but I think by next year he will be adequate. They could still use more help on the back end though because Keith and Seabrook are getting to the age where you cant rely on them for as many quality minutes as you could in the past.

I'll be interested to see what Stan bo does this summer. Obviously he needs some help on D but he also has many holes to fill at the forward position.

I think TVR is good enough now that you could pencil him into the top 4 next year. This year was maybe a little too early but I think by next year he will be adequate. They could still use more help on the back end though because Keith and Seabrook are getting to the age where you cant rely on them for as many quality minutes as you could in the past.

Today during Bowman's exit interview he mentioned some Swedish defenseman that will be coming over and ready to play. I believe he is referring to 2 in particular, and maybe a 3rd.

Robin Norell, Carl Dahlstrom are for sure ready to battle for a spot. The third guy would be Gustav Forsling, who outperformed both of the aforementioned, but is still raw and could use some more time developing.

I think that is a decent comparable though Oduya was a notch above Salvadar in this comparison imho.
- Jason Millen

Much better first pass. Better positional defenseman but a little less physical.

Much better first pass. Better positional defenseman but a little less physical.
- eggsegan

I'd say that's spot on.

"But as was also pointed out STL had slightly more high danger chances."

That was the series right there. What little business the Hawks did around Elliott was primarily Anisimov, Shaw and Panarin. Kane was nowhere near the net except for the Game 5 winner, Toews line generated some chances and couldn't finish them.

Blues' prescription was simple— no cutesie running around the perimeter. Get it in, get it on net, look for rebounds and open guys in the slot. it worked. Especially when 91 was on the ice.

Notice how much of the Blues' offense was off the rush or starting at least with a blue line shot. The Hawks were way too cute, and their 5-7 defense was exposed: an old man, a slow giant rookie, a one-way rookie.

Today during Bowman's exit interview he mentioned some Swedish defenseman that will be coming over and ready to play. I believe he is referring to 2 in particular, and maybe a 3rd.

Robin Norell, Carl Dahlstrom are for sure ready to battle for a spot. The third guy would be Gustav Forsling, who outperformed both of the aforementioned, but is still raw and could use some more time developing.
- Hawks_49

I'm not buying that. And Hawk fans should hold Bowman accountable if these guys are all no better than the other two fringe Swedes form this year.

Forsling has some legit offensive skill, but he is tiny, as is Norell. Dahlstrom? Haven't heard much but I don't think he's anything special.

TVR really impressed me and is a solid #4 option. But when you literally have NOBODY else that can play 10+ mins without getting abused and costing goals against, those top 4 will crack. When the Hawks had that mighty top 4 last year they at least still had Rozy and then later TVR in the SCF to give a few extra minutes to. This time around as it turned out Rozy, Rundblad, and Gustafsson were all so incredibly bad that the top 4 couldn't sustain the extra added pressure to perform.
- SimpleJack

That's debatable. He has some mobility issues. Short area quickness/acceleration/ top speed is only average. He is a solid player in a lot of ways, and a lot better on his natural side. Definitely part of the solution, but not a replacement for what Oduya did over 200 feet of ice.