Bill Meltzer: Meltzer's Musings: Provorov, McDonald, Del Zotto, Flyers 4th of July

The quick signing was easy as there was nothing to negotiate. He got the max.

For all the talk of developing players in the minors, Drew Doughty I believe played 81 games for the Kings his draft year.

If Hextall thinks that Provorov can handle the NHL, my feeling is that Provorov will play for the Flyers.

Happy 4th to Bill and everyone.
Reflecting on the last few days and the rumors of a Blues Flyers trade, I am very happy they didn't trade Simmonds or BSchenn for TJ Oshie. I like Oshie ok but those would have been bad deals.

Happy 4th to Bill and everyone.
Reflecting on the last few days and the rumors of a Blues Flyers trade, I am very happy they didn't trade Simmonds or BSchenn for TJ Oshie. I like Oshie ok but those would have been bad deals.
- Marc D

Agreed. I think his reputation (at leats among the fans) outstrips his ability.

The quick signing was easy as there was nothing to negotiate. He got the max.

For all the talk of developing players in the minors, Drew Doughty I believe played 81 games for the Kings his draft year.

If Hextall thinks that Provorov can handle the NHL, my feeling is that Provorov will play for the Flyers.
- Flyers_01

Defensemen such as Doughy are rare. It is tough for an 18-year-old defenseman to be thrown into the NHL and not have it hurt their development. There are far more Luca Sbisa cases than Doughty ones. Being rushed to the NHL with a lot of hype did not help Zach Bogosian or Luke Schenn whatsoever. Even Tyler Myers -- who won the Calder -- found the going tough for several years thereafter and didn't know how to handle it.

Defensemen such as Doughy are rare. It is tough for an 18-year-old defenseman to be thrown into the NHL and not have it hurt their development. There are far more Luca Sbisa cases than Doughty ones. Being rushed to the NHL with a lot of hype did not help Zach Bogosian or Luke Schenn whatsoever. Even Tyler Myers -- who won the Calder -- found the going tough for several years thereafter and didn't know how to handle it.
- bmeltzer

You would almost have to wonder what impact it would have on the other developing D prospects. The blue line is so packed and these prospects are getting older and less patient.

You would almost have to wonder what impact it would have on the other developing D prospects. The blue line is so packed and these prospects are getting older and less patient.
- section32

The prospects will have to earn their keep amid the competition. Odds are against all five making it as impact players in the NHL -- and especially all with one team -- but there is also a good chance at least 2-3 do.

Defensemen such as Doughy are rare. It is tough for an 18-year-old defenseman to be thrown into the NHL and not have it hurt their development. There are far more Luca Sbisa cases than Doughty ones. Being rushed to the NHL with a lot of hype did not help Zach Bogosian or Luke Schenn whatsoever. Even Tyler Myers -- who won the Calder -- found the going tough for several years thereafter and didn't know how to handle it.
- bmeltzer

Flyers management will have to show some discipline here because I have the feeling Provorov is going to be one of the best looking D on the team in camp.

I'm for not rushing him but if you look at their current D I think the kid is going to shine in comparison.

Really like the way Hexy is sticking to his plan.
I think he will make the right decision with Provorov and be patient with his development.

Happy 4th everyone. Maybe this can be Independance from Vinny Day as well?
Really excited about Provorov.

It begs the question sometimes is how much can thst particular player gain from playing juniors one more year. I've always thought once drafted players should be able to play in the pros. A lot of people have put stock into sanheim anchoring the blue line at juniors this year and proving he can be the premier player to lead the team to gold. Does provorov need that to justify himself ? How much more can he gain from juniors ? Would all situation 22 minutes a night hockey benefit him more than 3rd pairing 15 minute situational hockey ? Would if he proves his keep his role expand ? Would the flyers bench amac or schultz or any other vet for the kid if he out performs them?

It begs the question sometimes is how much can thst particular player gain from playing juniors one more year. I've always thought once drafted players should be able to play in the pros. A lot of people have put stock into sanheim anchoring the blue line at juniors this year and proving he can be the premier player to lead the team to gold. Does provorov need that to justify himself ? How much more can he gain from juniors ? Would all situation 22 minutes a night hockey benefit him more than 3rd pairing 15 minute situational hockey ? Would if he proves his keep his role expand ? Would the flyers bench amac or schultz or any other vet for the kid if he out performs them?
- Tfaehner

That's the problem, how much would a kid like Provorov have to gain by going to back to juniors if he's that advanced?

That's the problem, how much would a kid like Provorov have to gain by going to back to juniors if he's that advanced?
- MJL

I'm heading over to the camp next week and I'll be very interested to attend pre season this year (season ticket holder). If he's where they say he is he starts as a third pairing guy this year. Looking at our other defenseman he's also one the more physical ones we have. Outside schenn gudas our d is charmin baby soft.

It's shame there's no loophole that would let Provorov play in the AHL as an 18 year old like Honka did.

The CHL would be hurt significantly if all drafted players could turn pro, I would though, be fine with allowing each NHL team one 19 year old exemption per season.

Defensemen such as Doughy are rare. It is tough for an 18-year-old defenseman to be thrown into the NHL and not have it hurt their development. There are far more Luca Sbisa cases than Doughty ones. Being rushed to the NHL with a lot of hype did not help Zach Bogosian or Luke Schenn whatsoever. Even Tyler Myers -- who won the Calder -- found the going tough for several years thereafter and didn't know how to handle it.
- bmeltzer

Aaron Ekblad and Seth Jones also started right away from the previous 2 drafts. They all started right away and are not looking out of place as far as i know. There is no way of telling whether their careers are enhanced or hurt by them starting.

There are other 1st round picks who never make it to the NHL or are only role players despite being given many years of seasoning.

Is it that their development was hurt in some of those cases by being rushed or that the original evaluations were wildly optimistic?

I do not think Luke was hurt as much by being rushed as having the unrealistic expectations of being a high first round draft pick.

Luke was never going to be a fast skater no matter how long he spent in the minors, nor would he have necessarily developed any sort of offensive game. Maybe some hockey sense but even that is not a given. If he had been drafted in the 3rd round, instead of the first there would not have been the high expectations and there is a good chance he would've ended up exactly where he is now, albeit with a few less NHL seasons under his belt and no one would be complaining about the guy on the 3rd pair making 900k/yr.

Do you think Paul Holmgren trades a 1st for Steven Eminger if he wasn't a former 12th overall pick? Sometimes i think draft position get's to much weight post draft.

If Hextall feels Provorov needs another year or 2 of seasoning, so be it but I don't think that it's a given that he can't start the season in the NHL and have a successful career.

It is far safer for Hextall to have Provorov wait as if Provorov falters he will be blamed for rushing him. Whereas if Provolov never develops into the defenseman the Flyers hope he can be after spending a few years in the minors he's just another prospect who didn't pan out.

Is Provorov more Drew Doughty or Thomas Hickey? or somewhere in between?

The CHL would be hurt significantly if all drafted players could turn pro, I would though, be fine with allowing each NHL team one 19 year old exemption per season.
- BiggE

If you look at what auston matthews attempted to do and the increasing number of college free agent each year I believe these kids are going to find a way to do it whether the nhl accepts it or not.

I've said before I'd also like in the next cba a team to hold a college free agents rights even if he won't sign. That way a team could trade and get something for a guy they put a draft pick investment in

Aaron Ekblad and Seth Jones also started right away from the previous 2 drafts. They all started right away and are not looking out of place as far as i know. There is no way of telling whether their careers are enhanced or hurt by them starting.

There are other 1st round picks who never make it to the NHL or are only role players despite being given many years of seasoning.

Is it that their development was hurt in some of those cases by being rushed or that the original evaluations were wildly optimistic?

I do not think Luke was hurt as much by being rushed as having the unrealistic expectations of being a high first round draft pick.

Luke was never going to be a fast skater no matter how long he spent in the minors, nor would he have necessarily developed any sort of offensive game. Maybe some hockey sense but even that is not a given. If he had been drafted in the 3rd round, instead of the first there would not have been the high expectations and there is a good chance he would've ended up exactly where he is now, albeit with a few less NHL seasons under his belt and no one would be complaining about the guy on the 3rd pair making 900k/yr.

Do you think Paul Holmgren trades a 1st for Steven Eminger if he wasn't a former 12th overall pick? Sometimes i think draft position get's to much weight post draft.

If Hextall feels Provorov needs another year or 2 of seasoning, so be it but I don't think that it's a given that he can't start the season in the NHL and have a successful career.

It is far safer for Hextall to have Provorov wait as if Provorov falters he will be blamed for rushing him. Whereas if Provolov never develops into the defenseman the Flyers hope he can be after spending a few years in the minors he's just another prospect who didn't pan out.

Is Provorov more Drew Doughty or Thomas Hickey? or somewhere in between?
- Flyers_01

The key to Jones and ekblad was they were asked to take on a third pairing role and we're added more responsibility as they could handle it. They had other defenseman especially in Jones case to handle the crucial situations early on in their careers. If hasktol (who we know nothing about his preference on rookie vet mix and development) can bring him on and challenge him at his pace I see no reason why developing at the nhl level couldn't be the best thing for him. He will definitely impress me more than schenn or Gudas ever will.

The key to Jones and ekblad was they were asked to take on a third pairing role and we're added more responsibility as they could handle it. They had other defenseman especially in Jones case to handle the crucial situations early on in their careers. If hasktol (who we know nothing about his preference on rookie vet mix and development) can bring him on and challenge him at his pace I see no reason why developing at the nhl level couldn't be the best thing for him. He will definitely impress me more than schenn or Gudas ever will.
- Tfaehner

I agree. You don't throw them to the wolves and that is a part of the equation.

Aaron Ekblad and Seth Jones also started right away from the previous 2 drafts. They all started right away and are not looking out of place as far as i know. There is no way of telling whether their careers are enhanced or hurt by them starting.

There are other 1st round picks who never make it to the NHL or are only role players despite being given many years of seasoning.

Is it that their development was hurt in some of those cases by being rushed or that the original evaluations were wildly optimistic?

I do not think Luke was hurt as much by being rushed as having the unrealistic expectations of being a high first round draft pick.

Luke was never going to be a fast skater no matter how long he spent in the minors, nor would he have necessarily developed any sort of offensive game. Maybe some hockey sense but even that is not a given. If he had been drafted in the 3rd round, instead of the first there would not have been the high expectations and there is a good chance he would've ended up exactly where he is now, albeit with a few less NHL seasons under his belt and no one would be complaining about the guy on the 3rd pair making 900k/yr.

Do you think Paul Holmgren trades a 1st for Steven Eminger if he wasn't a former 12th overall pick? Sometimes i think draft position get's to much weight post draft.

If Hextall feels Provorov needs another year or 2 of seasoning, so be it but I don't think that it's a given that he can't start the season in the NHL and have a successful career.

It is far safer for Hextall to have Provorov wait as if Provorov falters he will be blamed for rushing him. Whereas if Provolov never develops into the defenseman the Flyers hope he can be after spending a few years in the minors he's just another prospect who didn't pan out.

Is Provorov more Drew Doughty or Thomas Hickey? or somewhere in between?
- Flyers_01

Provorov would be somewhere in the middle. He is NOT currently a projected franchise defenseman (more of a 2-3, but that would be quite OK) but, who knows? It's possible.

Seth Jones has the luxury of being able to develop behind Shea Weber and Roman Josi. He still had a rough rookie year and a better second season. It's also a MUCH lower-pressure environment in Nashville than Philly. What do you think Flyers fans will do if Provorov has an identical rookie year (25 points, minus-23 at even strength in 72 games) to Jones? Think they will be patient and understanding or do you think they will get all over him as he's navigating the steep learning curve that even the most talented of young D men have to go through?

Ekblad is a rare case, and not the rule.

Victor Hedman struggled plenty as a young D. He's overcome it, but people were starting to wonder if he'd blossom. He really didn't benefit from having so much thrown on him so quickly in Tampa; rather, he overcame it.

It takes a lot of time and patience to develop defensemen. I would rather see Provorov be "too good" for the WHL for another year than do OK for 20 games or so for the Flyers and then hit the wall.... which is what happens more often than not even with the very best young D who make fast-tracked arrivals.

Provorov would be somewhere in the middle. He is NOT currently a projected franchise defenseman (more of a 2-3, but that would be quite OK) but, who knows? It's possible.

Seth Jones has the luxury of being able to develop behind Shea Weber and Roman Josi. He still had a rough rookie year and a better second season. It's also a MUCH lower-pressure environment in Nashville than Philly. What do you think Flyers fans will do if Provorov has an identical rookie year (25 points, minus-23 at even strength in 72 games) to Jones? Think they will be patient and understanding or do you think they will get all over him as he's navigating the steep learning curve that even the most talented of young D men have to go through?

Ekblad is a rare case, and not the rule.

Victor Hedman struggled plenty as a young D. He's overcome it, but people were starting to wonder if he'd blossom. He really didn't benefit from having so much thrown on him so quickly in Tampa; rather, he overcame it.

It takes a lot of time and patience to develop defensemen. I would rather see Provorov be "too good" for the WHL for another year than do OK for 20 games or so for the Flyers and then hit the wall.... which is what happens more often than not even with the very best young D who make fast-tracked arrivals.
- bmeltzer

I agree, the Ekblads of the world are the exception not the rule. If Provorov is able to play at the level Ekblad did, he'll make the club. If not, let him dominate the WHL.

Cam Fowler is another guy who played in the NHL the year he was drafted. He was the 12th pick in 2010, and had 40 points in 76 games.

http://www.eliteprospects...m/player.php?player=31261

Cam Fowler is another guy who played in the NHL the year he was drafted. He was the 12th pick in 2010, and had 40 points in 76 games.

http://www.eliteprospects...m/player.php?player=31261
- Feanor

He was also a combined minus-53 over his first two seasons. Philly is not a place where people will be patient through that process.

He was also a combined minus-53 over his first two seasons. Philly is not a place where people will be patient through that process.
- bmeltzer

What "people" think doesn't matter. All that matters is what Hextall thinks is best for his development.

Flyers management will have to show some discipline here because I have the feeling Provorov is going to be one of the best looking D on the team in camp.

I'm for not rushing him but if you look at their current D I think the kid is going to shine in comparison.

Really like the way Hexy is sticking to his plan.
I think he will make the right decision with Provorov and be patient with his development.
- Marc D

I don't have any concerns with the flyers rushing any player. Hextall has already shown he won't keep anyone up just because they looked pretty good in the preseason. If any one of them makes the team out of camp, I believe it will be the right decision.

The worst thing that ever happened to Luke Schenn was THN dubbing him "the next Adam Foote", being drafted into the ultra-high pressure Toronto market, being immediately placed into the NHL lineup and then being expected to live up to the hype of becoming an elite shutdown D in quick order.