Paul Stewart: Hockey Success Has (Almost) Nothing to Do with Luck

Hockey success has basically everything to do with luck.

The number of variables involved in every play is almost overwhelming.

Hockey success has basically everything to do with luck.

The number of variables involved in every play is almost overwhelming.
- BINGO!

OMG miss the point more!

Over the long term of the season, yes hard work and talent will win out, but in a short playoff series luck is a factor for sure.

A team could win the presidents trophy, and then outpossess, outchance, outhit, outshoot and dominate every game in their first round playoff series.. but if the other teams goalie gets hot, they hit a bunch of posts and crossbars, and the bounces just don't go their way, they can still lose their entire season because of a week of bad luck.

At least in hockey there are 7 game series.. imagine being an NFL player.

A good example would be the Pitt/Philly game on Sunday.. The shots were like 47-20 and the majority of the game was spent in Philly's zone, but the Pens lost 4-1. The Pens also hit a few posts, one shot went off both posts.

OMG miss the point more!
- Fountain-San

Didn't read the blog.

Didn't read the blog.
- BINGO!

This was an outstanding read. I hope this entire blog gets its own chapter in the book, word for word.

Over the long term of the season, yes hard work and talent will win out, but in a short playoff series luck is a factor for sure.

A team could win the presidents trophy, and then outpossess, outchance, outhit, outshoot and dominate every game in their first round playoff series.. but if the other teams goalie gets hot, they hit a bunch of posts and crossbars, and the bounces just don't go their way, they can still lose their entire season because of a week of bad luck.

At least in hockey there are 7 game series.. imagine being an NFL player.

A good example would be the Pitt/Philly game on Sunday.. The shots were like 47-20 and the majority of the game was spent in Philly's zone, but the Pens lost 4-1. The Pens also hit a few posts, one shot went off both posts.
- bochangs

Hockey doesnt have short series, if you lose 4 games in a row, luck has nothing to do with it. Hitting the post isnt bad luck, its called missing the net. sometimes a top seed goes in thinking they deserve to win, and gets outplayed. thats not luck, thats effort.
Always a great read Stewie... see you at the 4's!

Hockey doesnt have short series, if you lose 4 games in a row, luck has nothing to do with it. Hitting the post isnt bad luck, its called missing the net. sometimes a top seed goes in thinking they deserve to win, and gets outplayed. thats not luck, thats effort.
Always a great read Stewie... see you at the 4's!
- 77emac77

Well, if, in a 7 game series, you win/lose 4 games in a row but all games go to overtime, I'd say luck had something to do with it. And I get it that working hard, right attitude, etc. should win out in the end, but simply because the person demonstrating those attributes has a physical/mental advantage. Over the course of a season, the luck evens out, and those with the best combination of skill, hard work and positive attitude rise to the top.

Exactly. If Team A outplays Team B, outshoots them 45-16, but Team B's goalie is on fire, then they go to OT, and Team A is pumping the pressure on, but nothing will go in, then Team B finally gets the puck in the offensive zone, and they take a weak wrist shot from the point that hits off 3 skates, 2 sticks, the post and in.. then THAT is luck.

In an 82 game season every good team is going to lose a few games like this, but over the long term they will still be high in the standings, whereas in a 4 win series, chances are the better playing team is going to win, but there is a decent chance of the other team getting lucky.