Jared Crozier: Blues Down Senators 3-2, Another Afternoon Loss

What a CLASS ACT the Ottawa Senators did for the Pitre boy. Made him a scout for a day. The kid suffering with an incurable disease and the Senators realized that bringing joy to a boy is just as important as the hockey game. I am a Leaf supporter, but this needs props.

Nice write-up.

Your comment about the Corsi components is interesting. I would like to see a player's CORSI broken out to show what % are shots, misses, blocks. I think if there were clear trends it would be insightful.

I disagree with you on Ceci. I thought it was one of his worst games of the season. He has been so steady he was due for an off-game. I thought this was one.

I heard an interesting take on the post-game show from a caller. The thought was this was a hard fought game by both teams. However, when you have a Cap team playing a budget team the Cap team is going to edge out the win in the majority of those hard fought games over the course of a season. Those couple of extra higher end players will be worth a goal, and a win, in these types of games. I tend to agree.

Your comment about the Corsi components is interesting. I would like to see a player's CORSI broken out to show what % are shots, misses, blocks. I think if there were clear trends it would be insightful.
- maaddmike

Those numbers are usually posted alongside Corsi. Fenwick is Corsi minus blocked shots. And shots on goal are then Fenwick minus missed shots (including those that hit iron).

Nice write-up.

Your comment about the Corsi components is interesting. I would like to see a player's CORSI broken out to show what % are shots, misses, blocks. I think if there were clear trends it would be insightful.


- maaddmike

I disagree with you on Ceci. I thought it was one of his worst games of the season. He has been so steady he was due for an off-game. I thought this was one.

I heard an interesting take on the post-game show from a caller. The thought was this was a hard fought game by both teams. However, when you have a Cap team playing a budget team the Cap team is going to edge out the win in the majority of those hard fought games over the course of a season. Those couple of extra higher end players will be worth a goal, and a win, in these types of games. I tend to agree.

It certainly wasn't his best, but if that is an off game I will take that on most nights. The early mistake was glaring, and he looked really bad on the Lapierre goal but he shook it off and was poised after that. And credit the coach for throwing him out there without missing a beat and letting him play through it.

I wish we had a centreman like david backes , we are missing a piece like that and 1 more solid defenceman

Looks like a crack in your guys ice will be what ends JBo's iron man streak.

I wish we had a centreman like david backes , we are missing a piece like that and 1 more solid defenceman
- Gosensgo89

I think Sens could also use a top line winger aswell

Talk about missing on Tarasenko...Muckler picked Brian Lee over Kopitar. Boy that guy knows how to tear down a franchise.

I think Sens could also use a top line winger aswell
- ClarksonDavid

Kessel?

Talk about missing on Tarasenko...Muckler picked Brian Lee over Kopitar. Boy that guy knows how to tear down a franchise.
- Mikelly_18

you realize that tarasenko was drafted 4-5 years after muckler was no longer GM right?

you realize that tarasenko was drafted 4-5 years after muckler was no longer GM right?
- sensarmy_11

Not to mention it was under his helm that the Sens iced their most competitive team, for what its worth.

Agree with most points brought up by Jared. Karlsson's giveaways, Turris FO struggles, and the Bobby-Mika chemistry were also on my list of observations from last night. But...it's much more fun to talk about things you disagree on.
I'll try to come up with something.

Agree with most points brought up by Jared. Karlsson's giveaways, Turris FO struggles, and the Bobby-Mika chemistry were also on my list of observations from last night. But...it's much more fun to talk about things you disagree on.
I'll try to come up with something.
- Fjodor

I will write something outlandish tomorrow!

I will write something outlandish tomorrow!
- JaredCrozier

Maybe how Maclean's job is at jeopardy if he fails to get the Senators to the Playoffs this season...

Who cares about Tarasenko, We got Turris instead who has a great contract, is a BC boy he is a true awesome Canadian hockey player. Turris will be in the NHL for atleast 10 more years and kicking ass. All those Russians don't do much in the playoffs thats why we don't draft them.

Who cares about Tarasenko, We got Turris instead who has a great contract, is a BC boy he is a true awesome Canadian hockey player. Turris will be in the NHL for atleast 10 more years and kicking ass. All those Russians don't do much in the playoffs thats why we don't draft them.
- JS_19

Tarasenko is 10x the player Turris is at a younger age. Hopefully this was sarcasim though

I will write something outlandish tomorrow!
- JaredCrozier

Oh, I've found one now.
Not exactly outlandish... but here goes:

I guess I was a bit puzzled by that Corsi discussion. I know that you've been fairly critical of "fancy stats" and how they are used (or overused). But since that's the case, I think there might be extra value in avoiding confusion about how these numbers are supposed to be used and interpreted. Here's your passage about Corsi again:

The Senators actually had more Corsi events, 57-55, but their problem was that more than half of their attempts were either blocked (17) or missed the net (14). Meanwhile the Blues forced Lehner to make a save (or not) on 60% of their attempts. That is where Corsi is misleading, because it now seems like shot attempts are just done to help that rating, and as more attention is being paid to that in all areas of the game, the more players take rather useless attempts. That is something that has gotten my attention lately, and although he didn't play last night I notice that about Erik Condra more than anyone, where he attempts a shot in situations where he has no business attempting one, and a better play could be made. Shot attempts are an easy stat to accumulate, because there has to be zero success to get a positive result. Yes, it means you had the puck, but if there is a better play to be made, then you aren't making the right play. It is "a" way to measure things, but by no means do I think it is "the" way.
- JaredCrozier

Here's how I see it: So called puck possession metrics from single games are not very strong predictors of future outcome. You have to work with fairly large samples in order to extract anything of value. Typically >20 games of data. I think most of those who takes this stuff seriously would agree with that.

We happened to face a very good team yesterday; Blues have been top-5 (or close to that) in deterring goals AND shot attempts for several seasons now. And the Sens are actually not that bad when it comes to getting pucks to the net: a bit under 54% of all attempts @5v5 so far, which is league average. So there's not really a "problem" that needs to be solved. And there's probably not any lesson about the pros and cons of Corsi to be learned from that particular game either. It was just one data point.

So let's look beyond yesterday. Are some players actually pursuing "useless attempts"? And would that manifest itself in the data the way that's being suggested? I think the answer to both those question are: no, not likely. Take the example of Erik Condra. I don't think that anyone's suggesting that Condra's talent lies in OZ puck possession. He's a defensive specialist. He's skilled at forcing bad plays or turnovers, and he limits availabe options for the other team. That's why he ends up on the plus side of on-ice possession. But I also think that the claim of "useless" shot attempts is a bit arbitrary, or at least subjective. Was there really a better play to be made in all those situations that you alluded to? Shot attempts, even the "bad" ones, are perhaps less likely to lead to dangerous situations than the alternative? Players like Karlsson or Spezza go for the "better" play. But they are also (frank)ing turnover machines and make decisions where the puck ends up in their own net when it didn't need to. The fact that there's a pretty significant correlation between Corsi% and Goals% for forwards over a full season suggest that players like Condra are very skilled at making correct decisions.

I think you need a good balance of those types: high risk/high reward vs the Condras. Or better yet, having players who are the perfect mix of both
= Mark Stone

Tarasenko is 10x the player Turris is at a younger age. Hopefully this was sarcasim though
- ClarksonDavid

Would have be hilarious as sarcasm, yes

Tarasenko is 10x the player Turris is at a younger age. Hopefully this was sarcasim though
- ClarksonDavid

Yes Taresenko is more offensivly gifted than Turris. And yes he is 2 years younger..

But I agree that when drafting a Russian player the team takes a risk. I know Ottawa's had issues with their past Russian draft picks.

Yes Taresenko is more offensivly gifted than Turris. And yes he is 2 years younger..

But I agree that when drafting a Russian player the team takes a risk. I know Ottawa's had issues with their past Russian draft picks.
- Erik6Karlsson5

No shame in just flat out saying tarasenko is better you know which picks did they have issues with?

No shame in just flat out saying tarasenko is better you know which picks did they have issues with?
- ClarksonDavid

Tarasenko is better than Turris, but there's no way in hell he's better than Bozak.

Tarasenko is better than Turris, but there's no way in hell he's better than Bozak.
- TheCalSen

Obviously not. Pretty silly of you to even bring Bozak into the conversation when we're not even talking about elite centers

Tarasenko is 10x the player Turris is at a younger age. Hopefully this was sarcasim though
- ClarksonDavid

m'eh, it is what it is. even if the sens had kept the pick, it's very unlikely they woudl have used it on tarasenko.

other than volchenkov and maybe gonchar, the sens have been cursed when it comes to russian players (yashin, filatov, ilya zubov, etc).

besides, you can't ever look at trade that involves picks and assume that player drafted was who you traded (leafs fans above all should know this....seguin, hamilton).......if that was the case, then in 2008 we traded chet pickard to nashville for erik karlsson......the leafs traded scott neidermayer for scott kurvers......etc.

i'm happy with turris, i think he's a great player. tarasenko has more pure offensive talent, no doubt, but i like the game turris brings, it fits very well into this team.

opinions......what was the best Sens draft

2008:
karlsson
wiercioch
smith
grant
boro

2009:
cowen
silfverberg
lehner
wideman
hoffman
sdao

2011:
zibby
noessen
puempel
prince
pageau
claesson
dzingel

funny, you look at the draft results and can tell the year murray took over from muckler. i think muckler might have been one of the worst drafting GMs in NHL history.