Jared Crozier: Advanced Stats: Some Numbers Do Lie

Heathen!!

Shun the non-believer!!!

Yah 5 games for a sample size is pretty useless - LA and SJ are near the top of the league in possession most years so i would doubt that this trend continues.

And the Leafs very well could have missed the playoffs last year with Bernier in net...have you seen him this year?

Finally, some sanity regarding the Corsi craze. That said, advanced stats do have some value. As Ken Holland said"Advanced stats can provide an opposite position to what you see, thus creating discussion."
I still maintain advanced stats are for fans who don't know enough about hockey and don't know what they are seeing.
Ottawa's good start is about a combined .9.45 sv.%. For now, that's it!

I think the league is so out of whack - you see teams lose 7-1 and then turn around and beat the best team in the league. Who thought Nashville would be so good, who thought Ottawa would be so good.

I think Ottawa will beat Toronto but they could lose 5-1 and I don't think anyone would be surprised

advance stats are a tool that can be used when evaluating players/teams, but they are not the only tool in the toolchest.

There has been a lot of hype over them recently, but I would expect that just like everything new tool, you'll use it to do everything for a while then it will find itself on the shelf only to be used when you need it.

Yah 5 games for a sample size is pretty useless - LA and SJ are near the top of the league in possession most years so i would doubt that this trend continues.

And the Leafs very well could have missed the playoffs last year with Bernier in net...have you seen him this year?
- Joel_Eh

Yeah, I have. Had a tough night early against Montreal and Pittsburgh. Stood on his head and got the Leafs a point against Detroit. Despite the EARLY hiccups, still near the top 10 in SV % The Leafs will have their problems this year, he won't be one of them. Great goalie.

Yah 5 games for a sample size is pretty useless - LA and SJ are near the top of the league in possession most years so i would doubt that this trend continues.

And the Leafs very well could have missed the playoffs last year with Bernier in net...have you seen him this year?
- Joel_Eh

Duplicate -deleted

Call me old-school, but I prefer to be able to see what is going on on the ice and forming my opinion from that.

well, Corsi and Fenwick describe what is going on on the ice, so your aversion to them in this sense seems like it's based on flawed logic. but the real problem with your statement is this: you're not going to form your own opinion. not entirely. you're going to play off pre-formed opinions you have of every player, and they will likely be biased, whether you realize it or not, because we all do that. it's human nature.

also, it's not possible for you to form an accurate opinion of all 18 skaters based on observation with no stat tracking.

Call me old-school, but I prefer to be able to see what is going on on the ice and forming my opinion from that.

well, Corsi and Fenwick describe what is going on on the ice, so your aversion to them in this sense seems like it's based on flawed logic. but the real problem with your statement is this: you're not going to form your own opinion. not entirely. you're going to play off pre-formed opinions you have of every player, and they will likely be biased, whether you realize it or not, because we all do that. it's human nature.

also, it's not possible for you to form an accurate opinion of all 18 skaters based on observation with no stat tracking.
- DoubleDown

absolutely......that's why subban sucks.

I believe Corsi is only important in the summertime when fans have nothing else to talk about

Call me old-school, but I prefer to be able to see what is going on on the ice and forming my opinion from that.

well, Corsi and Fenwick describe what is going on on the ice, so your aversion to them in this sense seems like it's based on flawed logic. but the real problem with your statement is this: you're not going to form your own opinion. not entirely. you're going to play off pre-formed opinions you have of every player, and they will likely be biased, whether you realize it or not, because we all do that. it's human nature.

also, it's not possible for you to form an accurate opinion of all 18 skaters based on observation with no stat tracking.
- DoubleDown

Corsi is a valuable statistic when used to analyze teams. It's got similar flaws to plus/minus when applied to individual players.

And speaking of human error, corsi is full of it considering it uses inconsistent statistics that get marked differently in each arena in the league.

The numbers don't lie, there isn't a problem with the stats, it's in their interpretation where the problem lies. For instance Jared's Bobby Ryan example, put BR on the Turris-Mac line and watch his shot attempts rise. WOWY numbers would confirm that after a large enough sample size. And interpreting that Jared Cowen is playing well based solely on corsirel is a bad interpretation. It's not that difficult, nor does it require watching any games to understand why Cowen is getting a lot of shot attempts. All I have to do is look to see who he was playing with.

None of the advanced stats bloggers advocate using one particular number as stand alone to understanding the game. When you take several of the advanced stats over a large enough sample size the predictive value of advance stats is incontrovertible and unequaled. It's already been shown, year after year. This isn't a craze, it's the future. And I personally can't wait until +\- is never mentioned again.

Having said that, Jared's blogs are great pieces that I enjoy reading, no one expects him to be Travis or anyone else. Definitely appreciate your work so far Jared.

The numbers don't lie, there isn't a problem with the stats, it's in their interpretation where the problem lies. For instance Jared's Bobby Ryan example, put BR on the Turris-Mac line and watch his shot attempts rise. WOWY numbers would confirm that after a large enough sample size. And interpreting that Jared Cowen is playing well based solely on corsirel is a bad interpretation. It's not that difficult, nor does it require watching any games to understand why Cowen is getting a lot of shot attempts. All I have to do is look to see who he was playing with.

None of the advanced stats bloggers advocate using one particular number as stand alone to understanding the game. When you take several of the advanced stats over a large enough sample size the predictive value of advance stats is incontrovertible and unequaled. It's already been shown, year after year. This isn't a craze, it's the future. And I personally can't wait until +\- is never mentioned again.

Having said that, Jared's blogs are great pieces that I enjoy reading, no one expects him to be Travis or anyone else. Definitely appreciate your work so far Jared.
- Mikelly_18

Thanks!

Part of the problem is the distinction people often make between "the Numbers" (i.e. goals, assists, hits, +/-) and the "Fancy Stats" (Corsi, Fenwick, etc.).

Advanced stats are still numbers and provide additional detail about the game. Each additional facet should be used to gain a better understanding of the on-ice product. If you notice that Milan Michalek has an incredible Corsi, it might cause you to look at how you have been deploying him and realize that he's incredibly useful as an offensive zone F, while he's not as helpful on the D-zone faceoffs.

I'm glad your post was not a one-or-the-other discussion, because I don't think traditional vs. new age stats is a useful fight to have. The beauty of the game is that you get to use both.

Good blog Jared. I am with you all the way because these stats do lie. In my opinion anyway I prefer to judge by what I see on the ice. The only way these stats mean anything to me would be if first lines played opposition first lines and second lines played second lines etc but they don't. All the different match ups just blow the theory on them. I guess I am Ted Nolan old school and do not put much into a players corsi numbers.

The numbers don't lie, there isn't a problem with the stats, it's in their interpretation where the problem lies. For instance Jared's Bobby Ryan example, put BR on the Turris-Mac line and watch his shot attempts rise. WOWY numbers would confirm that after a large enough sample size. And interpreting that Jared Cowen is playing well based solely on corsirel is a bad interpretation. It's not that difficult, nor does it require watching any games to understand why Cowen is getting a lot of shot attempts. All I have to do is look to see who he was playing with.

None of the advanced stats bloggers advocate using one particular number as stand alone to understanding the game. When you take several of the advanced stats over a large enough sample size the predictive value of advance stats is incontrovertible and unequaled. It's already been shown, year after year. This isn't a craze, it's the future. And I personally can't wait until +\- is never mentioned again.

Having said that, Jared's blogs are great pieces that I enjoy reading, no one expects him to be Travis or anyone else. Definitely appreciate your work so far Jared.
- Mikelly_18

Awesome post.

Don't tell your stats prof at Laurentien this belief about advanced stats. He'll assign you another "Weekend Special".

Good blog Jared. I am with you all the way because these stats do lie. In my opinion anyway I prefer to judge by what I see on the ice. The only way these stats mean anything to me would be if first lines played opposition first lines and second lines played second lines etc but they don't. All the different match ups just blow the theory on them. I guess I am Ted Nolan old school and do not put much into a players corsi numbers.
- flyerdude17

But that doesnt mean the stats lie - there are stats that will show you quality of competition, zone starts etc etc. So you may look at one stat and say thats BS and that player isnt any good but maybe he's a great possession player because he's getting all Ozone starts against terrible QOC with great linemates.

The stats dont lie people just choose not too look at the whole picture and depend on one single stat rather than looking at them as something to help understand why a player is performing a certain way.

An article discussing several players' CORSI and advanced stats without actually posting those numbers relative to their comparators is not very helpful.

I am not sure how persons who obviuously do not understand advanced statistics can try to comment on the numbers' utility or relevance. This is the problem with most hockey fans - advanced stats are new and they simply do not understand how to properly use them.

All tools used to measure performance (be it your eyeballs, or tracking advanced stats) are not going to be able to tell you the "complete" story simply bc the tools we use to measure performance influence what we see. so i don't really get the argument "stats dont tell the whole story", bc you can say the same thing about using your own eyeballs, and vice versa. That being said, when making a criticism of something like advanced statistics, it might be helpful if you demonstrated your knowledge of corsi before throwing out vague examples to make your argument. I'm no expert, but i'm pretty sure that a 5-game sample is too small to tell us a bigger picture, which is what most advance stats gurus would probably say to your argument.

is there any timeline for methots return? any concrete diagnosis of his injury? or do we just know its "back related"?

Don't tell your stats prof at Laurentien this belief about advanced stats. He'll assign you another "Weekend Special".
- SensItComing

Haha! Who is this?

is there any timeline for methots return? any concrete diagnosis of his injury? or do we just know its "back related"?
- sen_smile

He did a skate yesterday (not with the team)...other than that there is no timetable that I am aware of.

Haha! Who is this?
- JaredCrozier

A BComm grad... a "few" years your senior.