HockeyBuzz Hotstove: Hotstove: Who Will Win The Jack Adams?

I know who won't.

Gerard gallant, the Canadiens are (frank)ed without him

Paul Maurice

It is very depressing that the best methodology for predicting this award goes something like:

1) Generate a list of teams that were especially unlucky last season (bad PDO, standings points much worse than what would be predicted by goal differential or Corsi, bad shootout record, etc.)

2) Out of those teams, select the ones who have had their current coach for 1 season or less.

3) If you still have more than 1 team remaining in your pool, choose on the basis of team youth (younger is better), offseason roster improvements, or a combination of the two.

When in reality, the methodology should go like:

1) Pick the best coach, based on the effectiveness of the things the coach can actually control (formation, strategy, tactics, deployment, etc.)

You arrogant homer!!!!!

Dallas Eakins

I know who won't.
- weirdoh

Bruce Boudreau?

It is very depressing that the best methodology for predicting this award goes something like:

1) Generate a list of teams that were especially unlucky last season (bad PDO, standings points much worse than what would be predicted by goal differential or Corsi, bad shootout record, etc.)

2) Out of those teams, select the ones who have had their current coach for 1 season or less.

3) If you still have more than 1 team remaining in your pool, choose on the basis of team youth (younger is better), offseason roster improvements, or a combination of the two.

When in reality, the methodology should go like:

1) Pick the best coach, based on the effectiveness of the things the coach can actually control (formation, strategy, tactics, deployment, etc.)
- Sven22

It's honestly become a 'who had the best goalie' award in the last few years. Varlamov. Anderson. Halak/Elliott.

Dallas Eakins
- laughs2907

You're such a homer

Willy - of course! Greatest comeback season ever about to happen

Willy - of course! Greatest comeback season ever about to happen
- LeftCoaster

You're such a homer
- Yeti1181

STOP IT!!!

AV will win the award after leading the New York Rangers to a President's Trophy season behind a Vezina-nominated Lundqvist and a McDonagh that finishes 5th in the Norris voting.

Hold on, let me check my magic crystal ball

Maclean.

Ted Nolan

Canucks HC, they'll make playoffs and they'll get massive praise even though they weren't really that bad last year as indicated by possession #

It's honestly become a 'who had the best goalie' award in the last few years. Varlamov. Anderson. Halak/Elliott.
- Michael_Stuart

The point that we're both trying to make is that it's that the Adams is more a "good luck" award than a coaching award.

It seems to me the best way to predict the award a year in advance is to look at the teams that finished much lower in the standings than a predictive analysis would have guessed, as presumably they have the most to gain from sheer regression to the mean.

But you're right, there's no way to predict whose goalie is going to play 20 points above their expectation. Basically it's random. Which is why the Adams sucks.

Three potential choices:

1) Peter DeBoer. The Devils for the last few years have been a great possession team but terrible on the percentages, and they went an astonishing 0-13 on shootouts last season. Despite this, they were still only 5 points out of the playoffs. They will probably still be a bad shooting team this year, but now that Brodeur is gone they no longer have to feel obligated to give half their starts to an ECHL-level goaltender, plus I doubt they can be that horrible at shootouts again.

2) Willie Desjardins. New coach taking over a team that still has a lot of talent and probably isn't nearly as bad as their record last season suggested. Plus the relationship with Tortorella exploded so spectacularly that the narrative is already built in -- any improvement, no matter where it comes from, is going to be credited to the coach.

3) Barry Trotz. If the Capitals have a good season you can pretty much guarantee he'll be a finalist.