John Jaeckel: The Cap Conundrum

first

I believe the cap will only climb to 72/73/74 the year after next
Canadian dollar will play a large factor
Although the new tv deal and more outdoor games will help in increasing the cap

The cap is relentless in terms of the squeeze it puts on successful teams. Just about every team (hawks, bruins, kings, rangers, pens) that made a recent trip to the Stanley Cup finals over the last few years is caught with a need to juggle cap issues. Vancouver is way too close to the cap when you consider they have already given up Luongo and Kesler.

We are into an era of 5% or less of cap increases. When a team increases high end players by 100% the numbers will not work. We are only a year or so away from some top young players (like Saad) hitting prime and looking to be paid.

The Pens have never recovered from the Malkin, Crosby contracts. Both those players are that good that they pull everyone else up around them. Soon your having to give big contracts to the supporting cast because the team has had great success.

Long thought that Pens would be in so much better shape had the moved Malkin for a boatload of great young players 3 years ago. Are the Hawks about to become the new Pens. Great talent that dominates in the regular season. But, each year, shows less and less in the playoffs because they don't have the line up depth of the teams that distribute salary dollars in a more balanced manner.

Trading Kane is not a crazy option. His value will never be as high as it is today.

As a Pens fan, let me tell you about the excitement to come with 2 players eating up most of the cap! Welcome to a bottom 6 of AHL players. The Hawks are better set up than the Pens, but I wish the Pens weren't in that situation. I thought the Hawks would be better off trading Kane. Just MO.

As a Pens fan, let me tell you about the excitement to come with 2 players eating up most of the cap! Welcome to a bottom 6 of AHL players. The Hawks are better set up than the Pens, but I wish the Pens weren't in that situation. I thought the Hawks would be better off trading Kane. Just MO.
- sammy87

Good post.

Too many people respond emotionally to the two star situation without really thinking it through. Everybody understands it would be crazy to carry two goalies at $6.5m each. Probably would think the same if you had two #1 Dmen making $7.5m each. But, somehow two top forwards making $10m or more each causes people to think that everything is great.

Good post.

Too many people respond emotionally to the two star situation without really thinking it through. Everybody understands it would be crazy to carry two goalies at $6.5m each. Probably would think the same if you had two #1 Dmen making $7.5m each. But, somehow two top forwards making $10m or more each causes people to think that everything is great.
- spatso

Yeah looking back I wish the Pens had kept Staal over Malkin. Everyone else forgets that when the cap increases so do salaries. Orpik making $5+? It doesn't necessarily = more space.

As a Pens fan, let me tell you about the excitement to come with 2 players eating up most of the cap! Welcome to a bottom 6 of AHL players. The Hawks are better set up than the Pens, but I wish the Pens weren't in that situation. I thought the Hawks would be better off trading Kane. Just MO.
- sammy87

I hope you guys hang around for the inevitable backlash from some on this board. Trading Kane—if you set aside all the marketing and fan expectations—is an option. for some reason, a lot of Hawk fans have always assumed you couldn't get equal or greater value back—which is nonsense.

But this FO invests heavily in its stars, not just in salary but in building the team brand and multi-million dollar advertising expenditures.

A premium was paid for Toews "leadership"

He's good.... But not 10.5 million per good

With the cap space that the Habs have, their depth of prospects in the minors and the familiarity of Bergevin, Dudley wit Chicago I really think that the 2 can get together and reach a deal.

I personally think that the Hawks need to lose $3 million in space just to survive the year alone. Patrick Sharp would fit in perfectly on the Habs with a void in the top 6 as well as a need for leadership wit the departure of Gionta and Gorges.

What about something along the lines of:

Patrick Sharp for Lars Eller, Artturi Lehkonen and a pick? Lehkonen with familiarity with Terovainen, you add a Big 3rd line possibly 2nd line center to fit in nicely against the big boys of the East and a 2nd?

Yeah looking back I wish the Pens had kept Staal over Malkin. Everyone else forgets that when the cap increases so do salaries. Orpik making $5+? It doesn't necessarily = more space.
- sammy87

No..... Just no...

Staal can't score... [email protected]>>>[email protected]

John Jaeckel: The Cap Conundrum
- John Jaeckel

I would love to see a trade wioth Ottawa for one of Oduya or Hjalmarsson. I doubt Leddy would get moved - his cap hit is less that either of Hjalmarsson or Oduya.

There has been lots of chatter about a deal being in works.... Chicago is apparently high on Zack Smith ($1.8M), so a swap for Hjalmarsson ($4.1) would net $2.3M in cap room.

Now, straight up that looks like a steal for Ottawa, until you factor in the cap releif - one cannot underestimate that value of cap space.

I hope you guys hang around for the inevitable backlash from some on this board. Trading Kane—if you set aside all the marketing and fan expectations—is an option. for some reason, a lot of Hawk fans have always assumed you couldn't get equal or greater value back—which is nonsense.

But this FO invests heavily in its stars, not just in salary but in building the team brand and multi-million dollar advertising expenditures.
- John Jaeckel

Yeah I get the same from the Pens board with Malkin. Amazing talent, but you can build around 1 star, not 2. Malkin is the reason why Dupuis is on Crosby's line not Hossa. The Oilers won a cup after moving Gretzky, it can be done. And when discussing moving a player like Kane or Malkin you will get a Hershel Walker type return. multiple picks, solid players, prospects, etc....

No..... Just no...

Staal can't score... [email protected]>>>[email protected]
- RoloTahmasee

No chance of that happening now, Malkin is on for the long run. But the coach and GM just lost their job for how they constructed the team.

A premium was paid for Toews "leadership"

He's good.... But not 10.5 million per good
- RoloTahmasee

are you kidding me ? not worth it ? who is then ?
Toews is the BEST player in the league today ! , He is better than Sid because he has the defensive side of the game as well.

The Hawks had to pay Toews and Kane there due

You gotta play the kids...especially if they are good enough to play.

Make sure they get ice time and increase in value to both your team and to trade partners.

The Pens have fallen into a bad spot because defensive prospects haven't received enough ice time...and not enough offensive prospects...they don't have the right balance of young guys on defense they can move for the kind of young guys on offense that they need/want (at least it seems that way to some extent IMO).

On the cap front...you have to hope that the increases keep coming and they can offset those big contracts. If the cap were at 75M...the Pens would be in a different boat (Crosby, Malkin and Letang eat up a little over 25M themselves). You have to hope the big money guys you keep will still be 'in their prime' by the time their salaries don't look so big anymore (and you have been able to replace what you may have lost because of those large salaries).

All things considered...Hawks still in a better position than Pens I think.

P.S. Can you guys just give us Saad?

are you kidding me ? not worth it ? who is then ?
Toews is the BEST player in the league today ! , He is better than Sid because he has the defensive side of the game as well.

The Hawks had to pay Toews and Kane there due
- Adam_The_Golf

I have no doubt that Toews is worth every $000. Not only is a great player but he makes everyone around him better. If, the Hawks had Toews with the existing lineup but no Kane they would still be a contender. If, on the other hand, if the Hawks had Kane but no Toews they would not be a leading Cup contender.

A great player makes everyone around him better. Does anybody believe Kane would be making $10.5m if he were playing on the first line in Buffalo?

You gotta play the kids...especially if they are good enough to play.

Make sure they get ice time and increase in value to both your team and to trade partners.

The Pens have fallen into bad spot because defensive prospects haven't received enough ice time...and not enough offensive prospects...they don't have the right balance of young guys on defense they can move for the kind of young guys on offense that they need/want (at least it seems that way to some extent IMO).

On the cap front...you have to hope that the increases keep coming and they can offset those big contracts. If the cap were at 75M...the Pens would be in a different boat (Crosby, Malkin and Letang eat up a little over 25M themselves). You have to hope the big money guys you keep will still be 'in their prime' by the time their salaries don't look so big anymore (and you have been able to replace what you may have lost because of those large salaries).

All things considered...Hawks still in a better position than Pens I think.

P.S. Can you guys just give us Saad?
- icedog97

Just about every team that is up hard against the cap is trying to dump a player. Amazing how difficult it has become to even give away a big salary. Hawk fans assume that moving Sharp is an easy option when the time comes. May be shocked to discover that not many teams are ready to offer up very much for a 33 year old player making $6m. for 3 more years.

I hope you guys hang around for the inevitable backlash from some on this board. Trading Kane—if you set aside all the marketing and fan expectations—is an option. for some reason, a lot of Hawk fans have always assumed you couldn't get equal or greater value back—which is nonsense.

But this FO invests heavily in its stars, not just in salary but in building the team brand and multi-million dollar advertising expenditures.
- John Jaeckel

And this is exactly why you can't trade a player like Patrick Kane, no matter how much sense it makes from a hockey perspective. Kane is not only a face of the franchise but a face of the league for many newer fans. He has all the most marketable traits: he's flashy, he's American, he plays big in big games, and he likes to talk and be in the spotlight. It's hard to trade that away and convince all those newer Blackhawk fans in Chicago to stay aboard.

The biggest concern to me, and you mention JJ, is the cap going forward not so much this coming year. As you mentioned JJ next year they only have 15 players signed for a cap hit of 65.7 mil and add to that Saad, Kruger and Leddy are RFA's.

And again as you mentioned in a previous blog the real work begins for StanBowMcD&Pops now that Kane and Toews have signed their deals.

No doubt we'll see if the "system depth" of prospects lives up to its promise, beginning next year cuz they are going to lose one or more of the usual mentioned names of Sharp, Leddy, Oduya or rarely mentioned ones like Seabrook.

What I'm watching is when those names are moved, now or after the season? Go for a cup this year in what looks to be their best chance for a couple years or move a Sharp now while his value is as or near as high as it will be for the 31 yr old?

Tough call either way.

I hope you guys hang around for the inevitable backlash from some on this board. Trading Kane—if you set aside all the marketing and fan expectations—is an option. for some reason, a lot of Hawk fans have always assumed you couldn't get equal or greater value back—which is nonsense.

But this FO invests heavily in its stars, not just in salary but in building the team brand and multi-million dollar advertising expenditures.
- John Jaeckel

I'm waiting as well to see what happens.

I believe the cap will only climb to 72/73/74 the year after next
Canadian dollar will play a large factor
Although the new tv deal and more outdoor games will help in increasing the cap
- MTL1

would you like to pick where your stock market and the canadian $$ will be next year while your at it..

One big difference between the Hawks and Pens is defense...The Hawks have Keith,Seabs and Hammer all locked up...The Pens do not have those type of d-men...Granted the Hawks 2 superstars are not as good as Malkin and Crosby...people complain about Dupuis being on Crosby's or Malkin's line...he does a good job imo...and fills a role...The Pens problem isn't really scoring goals, I think it's more about defending..but hey thats just me

One big difference between the Hawks and Pens is defense...The Hawks have Keith,Seabs and Hammer all locked up...The Pens do not have those type of d-men...Granted the Hawks 2 superstars are not as good as Malkin and Crosby...people complain about Dupuis being on Crosby's or Malkin's line...he does a good job imo...and fills a role...The Pens problem isn't really scoring goals, I think it's more about defending..but hey thats just me
- captainserious

Hawks will probably lose Seabrook after two years.

I hope you guys hang around for the inevitable backlash from some on this board. Trading Kane—if you set aside all the marketing and fan expectations—is an option. for some reason, a lot of Hawk fans have always assumed you couldn't get equal or greater value back—which is nonsense.

But this FO invests heavily in its stars, not just in salary but in building the team brand and multi-million dollar advertising expenditures.
- John Jaeckel

If you are serious about trading Kane, think that will make the team better, you need to say what is coming back.

I don't think most here would say you can't trade him, just more of what comes back.

If not investing heavy in Kane and Toews, who should they invest in? Pretty easy to just say, trade Kane, not as easy to replace his clutch performances in the playoffs. I've been a chicago sports fan (all sports) for almost a half century, take away MJ, pretty tough to find a more clutch player in big games than Kane and that includes Toews.

Also, guys coming back in any trade would have tremendous pressure trying to live up to Kane.

Its amazing to me, a not too long ago the FO was a joke and great players like JR and Eddy wouldn't get paid, and people complained. Now the stars get paid and are here for their career, and people still complain, its mind boggling to me.