Todd Cordell: Game 66: New Jersey Devils @ Philadelphia Flyers

Should be a 12-11 Flyers OT win with Giroux getting about 4-5 goals.

I didn't realize our road record was that awful, yikes. I'm glad it'll improve now that Salvador and Volchenkov are back together; meanwhile Gelinas is sitting!

Won't it be nice when all the old players are gone and we start worrying about the future of this franchise I seriously can't wait till the oldest player on the team is like 33. This season has been mostly nothing but painful I just want to watch some hockey not politics I pray for some fresh faces and ideas. Lou is an 80-90s sports guy he isn't suited to the new age of being exciting and all that

Todd Cordell: Game 66: New Jersey Devils @ Philadelphia Flyers
- Todd.Cordell

http://www.extraskater.co...ams/on-ice?sort=corsi_pct

At the risk of filling everyone with rage, I think the Corsi stat is flawed because it doesn't account for "quality shots" nor does it measure who you're on the ice with.

Essentially, there's no measurement for differentiating when you're throwing pucks at the net and when you're creating structured offensive attack that ultimately leads to quality scoring chances.

Further, I think the statistics bear that out.

In Corsi % the Blackhawks, Bruins and Kings are top 3. I wonder if that has more to do with having Keith, Chara and Doughty. Three of the best defenseman in the league. I'd argue that Keith is the best all around in the league, actually.

No proof, just a thought...

Then New York, New Jersey, Dallas Vancouver, and Ottawa are all in the top 10. Fringe playoff teams.

Bottom 10 include the Flyers, Wild, Canadiens, Avalanche and Maple Leafs. Playoff teams.

That's interesting.

Further, if you just looked at shots against St. Louis, Anaheim, Los Angeles, Chicago, Columbus, Pittsburgh and San Jose are all in the top 10. Cup contenders and a very hot team. New Jersey, Nashville and Florida round out the top 10 in that category. An educated guess would be because of their systems and or lack of offensive talent relying them to rely more on defense to win games.

Won't it be nice when all the old players are gone and we start worrying about the future of this franchise I seriously can't wait till the oldest player on the team is like 33. This season has been mostly nothing but painful I just want to watch some hockey not politics I pray for some fresh faces and ideas. Lou is an 80-90s sports guy he isn't suited to the new age of being exciting and all that
- blizzzard

Its just a few old guys, Patty and Jagr can stay as long they want.

So is Ruutu as good as Clarkson, for half the price? I'm leaning towards yes.

So is Ruutu as good as Clarkson, for half the price? I'm leaning towards yes.
- MartysBetter88

Clarkson? Didn't he retire?!

So is Ruutu as good as Clarkson, for half the price? I'm leaning towards yes.
- MartysBetter88

He's about 3/4 as good for 1/2 the price.

5-4 flyers SO

So is Ruutu as good as Clarkson, for half the price? I'm leaning towards yes.
- MartysBetter88

Who dat

http://www.extraskater.com/teams/on-ice?sort=corsi_pct

At the risk of filling everyone with rage, I think the Corsi stat is flawed because it doesn't account for "quality shots" nor does it measure who you're on the ice with.

Essentially, there's no measurement for differentiating when you're throwing pucks at the net and when you're creating structured offensive attack that ultimately leads to quality scoring chances.

- njdevils350

Corsi is essentially about probabilities so its not going to be accurate 100% of the time. In the long run the top teams will rise to the top, with some outliers both ways. Shooting quality ends up having very little effect on the long run. A hot goalie or a team full of good percentage shooters can cover up a terrible corsi team but you are still at a disadvantage if you are consistently getting outchanced.

Further, I think the statistics bear that out.

In Corsi % the Blackhawks, Bruins and Kings are top 3. I wonder if that has more to do with having Keith, Chara and Doughty. Three of the best defenseman in the league. I'd argue that Keith is the best all around in the league, actually.

No proof, just a thought...


- njdevils350

So basically.... better defense leads to better corsi leads to better teams? Isn't that an endorsement of Corsi? Even look at our situation, I don't think one devils fan will say Andy Greene hasn't been our best defensman this season. He has the best corsi playing the 2nd hardest minutes on the team.

Then New York, New Jersey, Dallas Vancouver, and Ottawa are all in the top 10. Fringe playoff teams.

Bottom 10 include the Flyers, Wild, Canadiens, Avalanche and Maple Leafs. Playoff teams.

That's interesting.

- njdevils350

The shootout records of those teams you listed:
First group- 13-27
Second group- 27-20

And again, no one will tell you there aren't exceptions, but there is a very strong correlation.

Further, if you just looked at shots against St. Louis, Anaheim, Los Angeles, Chicago, Columbus, Pittsburgh and San Jose are all in the top 10. Cup contenders and a very hot team. New Jersey, Nashville and Florida round out the top 10 in that category. An educated guess would be because of their systems and or lack of offensive talent relying them to rely more on defense to win games.
- njdevils350

All except 2 teams in the top 10 of shots for a game are playoff teams.

Corsi is essentially about probabilities so its not going to be accurate 100% of the time. In the long run the top teams will rise to the top, with some outliers both ways. Shooting quality ends up having very little effect on the long run. A hot goalie or a team full of good percentage shooters can cover up a terrible corsi team but you are still at a disadvantage if you are consistently getting outchanced.

First, I'd like to thank you for taking things point by point. It makes it easier to reach an understanding one way or another.

I agree with what you're saying, I just think that the percentage becomes inflated when some of those chances are low quality. For example, much of the Devils own offense is based on forechecking and filtering the puck back to the point and getting it to the net from there. Often, this results in insignificant chances from Fayne, Salvador, or Greene...but a higher Corsi rating.

I just think it's a little misleading. Particularly when you contrast it with a team that is less defensively responsible than New Jersey. If you're not going to come all the way back and play defense on the other end the quality will outweigh the quanity.

So basically.... better defense leads to better corsi leads to better teams? Isn't that an endorsement of Corsi? Even look at our situation, I don't think one devils fan will say Andy Greene hasn't been our best defensman this season. He has the best corsi playing the 2nd hardest minutes on the team.

More so that an outstanding defenseman will likely inflate the Corsi stats. That's what I'm getting at. I think it's a stat that is easy to manipulate and inflate. For example, if you're on the Blackhawks, you don't even needed to be paired with Duncan Keith to inflate your Corsi number. The 30 minutes that he spends on the ice shutting down the other team will lead them to forced plays, breakdowns, and a lack of structure which, in turn leads to easier opportunities for everyone else. It's almost impossible for teams to remain patient and make the right plays for 60 minutes when they're getting shut down.

The shootout records of those teams you listed:
First group- 13-27
Second group- 27-20

And again, no one will tell you there aren't exceptions, but there is a very strong correlation.

Interesting. I think it would be good to eliminate the shootout as much as possible. It's run its course. If it's allowing lesser quality teams to climb higher in the playoffs then it's actually having a negative effect on the game as a whole. I also think most would agree that the excitement of it has run its course.

All except 2 teams in the top 10 of shots for a game are playoff teams.

Top 15 total shots for.

Rangers
Canucks
Blackhawks
Sharks
Jets
Kings
Senators
Bruins
Lightning
Islanders
Stars
Coyotes
Red Wings
Hurricanes
Capitals

Top 15 Shots for per game

Sharks
Blackhawks
Rangers
Senators
Bruins
Stars
Coyotes
Ducks
Hurricanes
Kings
Jets
Canucks
Islanders
Red Wings
Capitals

http://espn.go.com/nhl/st...tat/scoring/sort/avgShots

Won't it be nice when all the old players are gone and we start worrying about the future of this franchise I seriously can't wait till the oldest player on the team is like 33. This season has been mostly nothing but painful I just want to watch some hockey not politics I pray for some fresh faces and ideas. Lou is an 80-90s sports guy he isn't suited to the new age of being exciting and all that
- blizzzard

Would be nice but it seems most of the "old guys" are the ones carrying us, not the youngsters (with a few exceptions)

First, I'd like to thank you for taking things point by point. It makes it easier to reach an understanding one way or another.

I agree with what you're saying, I just think that the percentage becomes inflated when some of those chances are low quality. For example, much of the Devils own offense is based on forechecking and filtering the puck back to the point and getting it to the net from there. Often, this results in insignificant chances from Fayne, Salvador, or Greene...but a higher Corsi rating.

I just think it's a little misleading. Particularly when you contrast it with a team that is less defensively responsible than New Jersey. If you're not going to come all the way back and play defense on the other end the quality will outweigh the quanity.

- njdevils350

New Jersey is definitely one of the outliers, and that is mostly because of our offense. We don't have a lot of quality producing forwards, even our best forwards aren't really producers. Our possession is what keeps us in games.

And you'd be surprised how many of those insignificant chances result in goals, whether its a deflection, rebound, creating a scramble etc. Even when you aren't scoring getting shots to net shows that the team is doing the right things as they are in possession of the puck and in the attacking zone. Also, these tend to even out over the long run to the point that shot quality has a very minimal effect.

More so that an outstanding defenseman will likely inflate the Corsi stats. That's what I'm getting at. I think it's a stat that is easy to manipulate and inflate. For example, if you're on the Blackhawks, you don't even needed to be paired with Duncan Keith to inflate your Corsi number. The 30 minutes that he spends on the ice shutting down the other team will lead them to forced plays, breakdowns, and a lack of structure which, in turn leads to easier opportunities for everyone else. It's almost impossible for teams to remain patient and make the right plays for 60 minutes when they're getting shut down.

The thing is that what makes these defensman great is in a large part captured by Corsi. They get the play going in the right direction. As a result, guys like Doughty, Chara, Greene, and Keith all have the best Corsi on their team when you factor in things like quality of competition and offensive zone starts.

- njdevils350

It seems like you think being good defensively isn't a part of Corsi. Its a large part of it, its just that the way you effectively defend has changed since the first lockout. Teams want to prevent shots from being taken in the first place. So while its nice players like Atrain and Sal throw their bodies in front of any puck, they are big reasons why those shots are being taken in the first place. Compare this to Keith who uses his skating to quickly pressure the opposition in the neutral zone, quickly retrieve dump ins and move the puck out of the zone. This lowers your shots against while getting the puck in the attacking end.

http://stats.hockeyanalys...1&sort=HARTp&sortdir=DESC

If you click on the names, it will give you a breakdown of how each player plays with others. For example, Elias will likely inflate other players corsi since everyone plays good with him, and its no coincidence that he's one of our best possession players.

Top 15 total shots for.

Rangers
Canucks
Blackhawks
Sharks
Jets
Kings
Senators
Bruins
Lightning
Islanders
Stars
Coyotes
Red Wings
Hurricanes
Capitals

Top 15 Shots for per game

Sharks
Blackhawks
Rangers
Senators
Bruins
Stars
Coyotes
Ducks
Hurricanes
Kings
Jets
Canucks
Islanders
Red Wings
Capitals

http://espn.go.com/nhl/st...tat/scoring/sort/avgShots
- njdevils350

I forgot that Ottawa was out of the playoffs as of now, but the main point was to show that while being good at preventing shots or attempting shots is good, being good at both is optimal and the reason why the Hawks, Bruins, etc will continue to be top teams.

Its just a few old guys, Patty and Jagr can stay as long they want.
- rmdevil313

They are like fine wine.

Today's line: 2 softies by Brodeur

I'm going over, I think he'll give up 3 tonight.

New Jersey is definitely one of the outliers, and that is mostly because of our offense. We don't have a lot of quality producing forwards, even our best forwards aren't really producers. Our possession is what keeps us in games.

And you'd be surprised how many of those insignificant chances result in goals, whether its a deflection, rebound, creating a scramble etc. Even when you aren't scoring getting shots to net shows that the team is doing the right things as they are in possession of the puck and in the attacking zone. Also, these tend to even out over the long run to the point that shot quality has a very minimal effect.

I agree, and that's a big part of why I thought Ryan Clowe and Tuomo Ruutu were such good additions to the team. board work, rebounds, and scrambles are where their games excel.

I'm just not convinced that it "evens out" as much as stat supporters would like to believe. I also have a hard time believing that shot quality has a minimal effect. Particularly against the better goalies in the league.

It seems like you think being good defensively isn't a part of Corsi. Its a large part of it, its just that the way you effectively defend has changed since the first lockout. Teams want to prevent shots from being taken in the first place. So while its nice players like Atrain and Sal throw their bodies in front of any puck, they are big reasons why those shots are being taken in the first place. Compare this to Keith who uses his skating to quickly pressure the opposition in the neutral zone, quickly retrieve dump ins and move the puck out of the zone. This lowers your shots against while getting the puck in the attacking end.

You're right, as it has been phrased, often in the blog, it appears to a metric slanted towards offense. Any offense. The way the stat is set up it seems like it can be inflated by throwing pucks at the net. Again, I'm just not convinced that those kinds of shots even out as much as supporters hope.

Duncan Keith is the best defenseman in the game. He is so difficult to create offense against for the reasons that we've mentioned and he creates offense for his team with tremendous ease. He makes any team much better.

I forgot that Ottawa was out of the playoffs as of now, but the main point was to show that while being good at preventing shots or attempting shots is good, being good at both is optimal and the reason why the Hawks, Bruins, etc will continue to be top teams.

We certainly agree on that. I find it interesting that the teams with fantastic defenseman like Keith, Chara and McDonagh rank so highly in this category. I'm not convinced that the stat isnt just a by-product of how dominant these guys are.

If you click on the names, it will give you a breakdown of how each player plays with others. For example, Elias will likely inflate other players corsi since everyone plays good with him, and its no coincidence that he's one of our best possession players.

That's very much about why I'm not sold on this idea. Elias is a great player. Keith is a great player. Half the forwards on San Jose and Anaheim are great players.

Keith and Elias, for example, can stand on their own. I have no problem with the stat in that regard.

I just think you have to be weary of it when those guys inflate the Corsi number of the lesser players around them and perhaps lead you to believe they are better than they are.

You're right, as it has been phrased, often in the blog, it appears to a metric slanted towards offense. Any offense. The way the stat is set up it seems like it can be inflated by throwing pucks at the net. Again, I'm just not convinced that those kinds of shots even out as much as supporters hope.

- njdevils350

But it doesn't, defense is huge. It takes into account both shots for and against. Even if you're not getting great chances you're still playing in the right end of the rink and dictating the play. If you aren't, then you're chasing the puck. Against better players that leads to more goals against.

Duncan Keith is the best defenseman in the game. He is so difficult to create offense against for the reasons that we've mentioned and he creates offense for his team with tremendous ease. He makes any team much better.

We certainly agree on that. I find it interesting that the teams with fantastic defenseman like Keith, Chara and McDonagh rank so highly in this category. I'm not convinced that the stat isnt just a by-product of how dominant these guys are.

That's very much about why I'm not sold on this idea. Elias is a great player. Keith is a great player. Half the forwards on San Jose and Anaheim are great players.

Keith and Elias, for example, can stand on their own. I have no problem with the stat in that regard.

I just think you have to be weary of it when those guys inflate the Corsi number of the lesser players around them and perhaps lead you to believe they are better than they are.
- njdevils350

All of this seems like a great endorsement of Corsi. The great players have great corsi. There are other stats that you can use to see how easy their minutes are (quality of competition, offensive zone starts) and how much they influence/are influenced by their teammates, which the previous link I gave you shows. I don't know if you're expecting this to be exact, but its statistically a good indicator of success.

Steve Mason will get a shutout. NJ offense is due to come back down to Earth.

4-0 Flyers.

We'll do enough to get within striking distance of the playoffs...

...

And then lose two more games. The NJ of 2013-2014. Was like this at game 16, will it change by game 66?

Pete...

Volchenkov already falling over on the penalty kill and making it so the Flyers get 2 minutes of zone time. Good player this guy is.

Volchenkov and Salvador looked HORRIBLE out there on that PK. Oh my...

Volchenkov already falling over on the penalty kill and making it so the Flyers get 2 minutes of zone time. Good player this guy is.
- MrToast

You just knew the puck was going to get by Volchenkov and get onto Simmonds stick allowing him to be all alone in front of Marty