Matt Karash: Jordan Staal blog: Deeper analysis by category through 12 games

Would take Jordan Staal back in a minute, but not at that price and not as anything more than a 3rd line center.

Every time (and there were many) he was asked to fill in for Sid or Geno as scoring line center, he came up small. One thing I can never remember saying is "wow, that was a pretty pass" I don't think he has great hands.

Don't get me wrong, he's a valuable player. He's huge with a crazy reach that can be very tough to play against, but the fact remains at that salary level, he should score more. 4 maybe 4.5 mil under this cap would be about right.

Still wish him nothing but the best. He was a class act while in Pittsburgh.

Would take Jordan Staal back in a minute, but not at that price and not as anything more than a 3rd line center.

Every time (and there were many) he was asked to fill in for Sid or Geno as scoring line center, he came up small. One thing I can never remember saying is "wow, that was a pretty pass" I don't think he has great hands.

Don't get me wrong, he's a valuable player. He's huge with a crazy reach that can be very tough to play against, but the fact remains at that salary level, he should score more. 4 maybe 4.5 mil under this cap would be about right.

Still wish him nothing but the best. He was a class act while in Pittsburgh.
- madmike71

Have to agree with you 100 percent. Jordan is the perfect third line center on a strong team. I have recently become a huge Cane fan and have noticed it is a challenge to score goals with the forward depth. Staal really does not create a lot of offense and that is apparent when Gerbe is the most dangerous forward at 5'5", lol. Jeff Skinner is key for this team because when he is out there is no secondary scoring and the Staal-Semin duo get checked into the ice. Ryan Murphy has been spectacular so far in my opinion.

Great blog Matt, thanks for doing all the dirty work and digging through the stats. While its still a relatively small sample of games, its great to be grounded in facts/stats to engage a discussion.

I have seen 3-4 Canes games this year and I think you are spot on with your assessment of JStaal. Very surprising to see the PK analysis, flies in the face of his reputation for sure.

The Canes are so very top heavy from a salary standpoint, they absolutely need their best players to play at the top of their games. Unfortunately they are not even close to doing this. Cam Ward is not playing at all like a $6M goalie, JStaal not playing like a $6M 2nd line center as you show in your blog. EStaal, Ruutu, the same. Semin looked good last game I agree but he needs to do this consistently to be worth $7M per. With none of these top players playing to their salaries, its no wonder the Canes only have 4 wins in 12 games.

Would like your view on Lindholm, from the little I have seen him he looks fragile and not ready for the NHL. He did make a nice pass on the 5 on 3 goal, but I have seen little else of note. He's not noticable at all. When you compare him to what Monahan look like from a stats standpoint and the eyeball test, Lindholm seems far behind.

I thought Tlusty looked good last game too. Canes need him to keep playing like that.

I agree with your analysis on Semin's game on Monday night. He played well and in addition to the pass to Lindholm on the Gerbe goal and the near Gerbe goal he set up, he had the sneaky shot through the d-man screen that forced Fleury to make a good save. Easily, he could have factored into 2 or 3 goals if the bounces went differently. One thing I would like to see is more Semin shots getting through the D. For every shot on net it seems he has 2 deflected into the screen. Both Semin and E Staal have been pressing since the start of the season. It's good to see Semin simplify his game. I feel both Staal brothers need to do the same and just work to get shots on net.

As far as J Staal, there have been multiple games where a replay of an opponent's goal features him being a step or two behind the eventual goal scorer. The Canes have changed the PK this season to an aggressive, high pressure system. I am beginning to think that Jordan doesn't have the foot speed to play this type of system against teams with speed.

J Staal's career high in goals and points is only 25 and 50 respectively, and those numbers are from his last season in Pitt while playing with Matt Cooke and Tyler Kennedy. That same year Cooke had a career high 19 goals and 38 points total (second best career points total). I don't think you can expect more than that sort of production from him, especially when he's playing with guys that would be in the bottom six on almost any other team. I'd be quite content if he ended up in the 50-55 points range, as long as his line is outscoring the opponents when he is on the ice. It's gonna be tough to outscore other teams when Gerbe, Staal, and Dwyer combined currently are on pace for a total of 13 5 on 5 goals over 82 games (3 PPG, 2 EV). Plugging in Dvorak for Dwyer increases the season projected total to 27 even strength goals. I still feel that JR should make a move to improve this line as Dwyer and Dvorak are great on PK, but they aren't going to be the 15-25 goal scorer this line needs on right wing. Maybe something was in the works prior to the Minny game when the injury bug hit hard (believe that was the game that ice_chip mentioned tons of scouts in attendance)?

The Canes aren't getting blown out of buildings, the big issue so far this year is that they are struggling putting pucks in the net and are 24th in scoring team wise. Without Skinner and Ward, the past couple of games look eerily similar to the second half of last season as scoring is lacking and injuries have forced Peters to attempt to play above his pay grade.

Matt, good blog! Can't find anything to disagree with, and your assessment of what Jordan's done is spot on!
My question is WHY, why does it appear that Jordan is struggling at the PK, in particular, and in scoring overall?
Without the expertise to answer that with any degree of accuracy. i will hazard a guess...I think Muller has a lot of basic coaching ability, but at least with Jordan, he needs to temper his style to fit the capabilities of this player! In Pitt. Jordan was very effective on the PK, so it's not that Jordan is incapable of doing his job, so maybe it's the way he's being asked to do it, or the players around him not meshing with him...???
Anybody have a better total understanding of Muller's style of PKing, vs. Pitt's style?

Would like your view on Lindholm, from the little I have seen him he looks fragile and not ready for the NHL. He did make a nice pass on the 5 on 3 goal, but I have seen little else of note. He's not noticable at all. When you compare him to what Monahan look like from a stats standpoint and the eyeball test, Lindholm seems far behind.
- grubber

So the facts on Lindholm are this:

--He hurt his shoulder on a hard check very early into prospects camp in July and missed the remainder. What was thought to be a 7-10 day thing (no major damage) caused him to miss the start of the Traverse City tourney which was a full month later.

--After 1 preseason game, Lindholm went on the shelf with another upper body injury.

--He returned in time for opening night and then played 5 games before again being sidelined for 2 weeks/5 games with another upper body injury thought to be a wrist injury this time.

So if you count the 2 summer things when there were no real games, Lindholm has been sidelined 3 times in about 4 months with only about 2 months (counting training camp) being real hockey time. "Fragile" is a subjective word with all kinds of connotations, but it is clearly fair to say he has been banged up a lot so far. Is it just age/physical development driven? Is it NHL game adjustment driven? Is it just plain bad luck? Or is it something he carries with him deeper into his career? I have no idea, but it is worth keeping an eye on.

In terms of his play, I guess I would say 2 things:

1) His start has been so disjointed in terms of ice time, line mates, streak of games, role, etc. that it is hard to get a definitive read on what he can do at the NHL right now.

2) But even at this early stage, it is clear that he thinks the game at an advanced level for his young age. He sorts thing out right defensively, reads plays well and competes for the puck.

It is pure speculation, but in Canes terms I think if he can stay healthy and settle in that he will very quickly reach the level of a young Brandon Sutter who is a solid 2-way center who just plays sound and smart hockey. I think that could be as early as this season. Ultimately, his offensive upside should be higher, but I think it could take a few years for that to be realized.

Matt Karash: Jordan Staal blog: Deeper analysis by category through 12 games
- CarolinaMatt63

Liked the analysis of Jordan Staal.

One thing I would say is that Staal's PPG average has been around 0.65 PPG, with the Penguins & with the Canes last year. He can produce offensively, but not at an extremely high level. This year, however, he just seems to have fallen way off that pace with only 3pts in 12gms.

Having not watched a lot of Canes games, I would ask who his linemates have been & how he works with them? Staal's O game has always been about grinding away, cycling the puck, & wearing down the opposing players, as opposed to pretty passes & sniping shots. Staal just doesn't have elite skill as a shooter or puck distributor. Staal did he best work with Tyler Kenned & Matt Cooke in Pitt., two players who could be categorized as lower skill, higher energy players. not sure Gerbe (who i read was playing with Staal somewhere) is the best fit for Staal's skill set.