Matt Karash: Carolina Hurricanes Training Camp: 1st week - 10 questions

Matt Karash: Carolina Hurricanes Training Camp: 1st week - 10 questions
- CarolinaMatt63

#Canes defenseman Joni Pitkanen to miss 2013-14 season

#Canes defenseman Joni Pitkanen to miss 2013-14 season
- BingoLady

How you guys feel about Andrei Meszaros?

How you guys feel about Andrei Meszaros?
- jmatchett383

I have to imagine there are about 8 Canes execs in a conference room right now looking at a list of everything possible, so he theoretically qualifies.

But is he healthy and for sure ready to go at 100% to start the season? With the salary cap struggles this summer, there are actually plenty of decent options who carry 0 health risk. I cannot imagine Rutherford would consider even the slightest injury risk. The other gotcha is his salary. His cap hit is a little high at $4M, but his backloaded contract has his real salary at $5.5M. As a small market team on a budget, the real $ outlay matters in addition to just the cap hit.

you guys can have Hunwick for cheap, ill pay for his air fare myself

I have to imagine there are about 8 Canes execs in a conference room right now looking at a list of everything possible, so he theoretically qualifies.

But is he healthy and for sure ready to go at 100% to start the season? With the salary cap struggles this summer, there are actually plenty of decent options who carry 0 health risk. I cannot imagine Rutherford would consider even the slightest injury risk.
- CarolinaMatt63

Niskanen has to be high up on that list, plus won't cost as much as some of the other options out there. Plus, Rutherford and Shero have a history.

Niskanen has to be high up on that list, plus won't cost as much as some of the other options out there. Plus, Rutherford and Shero have a history.
- cap1681

This

sounds like Plan A1 and A2 is Hainsey or trying to pry Fransen from TOR.

sounds like Plan A1 and A2 is Hainsey or trying to pry Fransen from TOR.
- Gossler1

what would the canes offer for franson?

Niskanen has to be high up on that list, plus won't cost as much as some of the other options out there. Plus, Rutherford and Shero have a history.
- cap1681

He's up there, and he's a sure thing. But, if healthy, Meszaros is an upgrade. So he carries that question mark and, as mentioned, more $$. Both are viable.

what would the canes offer for franson?
- doinktheclown

Franson fits, but that is arguably the most complicated of all possible deals. I am figuring he would come unsigned, so the financial commitment is a bit unclear. Best guess from what I read is that he wants $4M/year for longer term. Also, Leafs can't actually take a player/salary. That's why he is available to begin with.

So there are a bunch of complicated details to sort out:
--Do the Canes staff/scouts like Franson enough that they are willing to commit real top 4 $ long-term. If they love the guy and are willing to go all in, then maybe. There is no "kick the tires" option here.

--Leafs have to decide if they really just want to move on and clear room for the up and coming youth or finish out the white knuckler for 2013-14. The cap will go up enough to create more flexibility if the team wants to keep him and can get a 1-year cheap wink-wink deal with a promise for much better $ next summer.

--If the Leafs do want to just clear the roster spot and collect futures, there is the back-and-forth on what package of prospects and futures the Leafs want.

For Hainsey or Gilbert, it is as simple as figuring out a term and annual $ amount that works for both parties -- much much simpler. Even Niskanen is probably much simpler because Pit has to do something (they are already over) and Niskanen is UFA and likely gone next summer anyway even if they could fit him this season.

Franson fits, but that is arguably the most complicated of all possible deals. I am figuring he would come unsigned, so the financial commitment is a bit unclear. Best guess from what I read is that he wants $4M/year for longer term. Also, Leafs can't actually take a player/salary. That's why he is available to begin with.

So there are a bunch of complicated details to sort out:
--Do the Canes staff/scouts like Franson enough that they are willing to commit real top 4 $ long-term. If they love the guy and are willing to go all in, then maybe. There is no "kick the tires" option here.

--Leafs have to decide if they really just want to move on and clear room for the up and coming youth or finish out the white knuckler for 2013-14. The cap will go up enough to create more flexibility if the team wants to keep him and can get a 1-year cheap wink-wink deal with a promise for much better $ next summer.

--If the Leafs do want to just clear the roster spot and collect futures, there is the back-and-forth on what package of prospects and futures the Leafs want.

For Hainsey or Gilbert, it is as simple as figuring out a term and annual $ amount that works for both parties -- much much simpler. Even Niskanen is probably much simpler because Pit has to do something (they are already over) and Niskanen is UFA and likely gone next summer anyway even if they could fit him this season.
- CarolinaMatt63

Leafs should have about $2.5M in cap space to work with without making any drastic moves. I would guess if they trade franson on his own, they'd be looking for a package of picks and prospects.

I hope the leafs are thinking about the possibility of packaging Franson with some other assets to obtain a talented center. I personally don't see a fit with Carolina for a more complex trade that sends a center back to Toronto.

Liles is the other option from the leafs, can be had for a lesser price, but comes with the long-term commitment.

In the end, seems like Carolina is better off looking at Hainsy/Gilbert/Niskanen for a simple short term solution that will not cost them any assets / only minimal assets.

Liles is the other option from the leafs, can be had for a lesser price, but comes with the long-term commitment.
- doinktheclown

I think Leafs fans overestimate the value of Liles. He is a compliance buyout except that the limit is 2. With his best case role on the Leafs being that of a 3rd pairing dman short-term, and with quality youth on the way very quickly, you don't really think that the Leafs have had offers for Liles but passed in hopes of getting something better?

As a player skill-wise, Liles has value. But as a player of his skill set with a $3.8M cap hit for 3 more years, he has no value - actually negative value. This is the Chiarelli-led NHL where a player's value is not just a function of what they can do but also how much they cost and what their risk (i.e. injury, contract length, etc.) is.

I peg Liles as a decent option as a 3rd pairing defenseman who could have some upside worth gambling on. But he is not priced for that or even close to that. The going rate for that should be about $1.2-1.8M, $2M tops.

So minus a compliance buyout option, I think a possible (still not automatic) Liles trade is this:
--Leafs get NOTHING in return - a 7th round pick or low level prospect has to be included to make it officially a trade.
--Leafs have to eat the max 1/2 of his salary bringing his cost to $2.1M/year for 3 years.
--The other team still really has to like him and maybe be a little desperate (maybe need power play/offensive blue line help?) to justify his premium above a normal 3rd pairing defenseman.

The only other option is if a team like Calgary decides they want to literally spend cash to buy prospects and picks. Then you get a deal where Calgary takes him and either eats the salary for 3 years or uses a compliance buyout next summer. In return they actually GET (not give up) futures for basically trading a compliance buyout of sorts to Toronto. So the deal looks like Cal sends a 5th round pick to Tor and Tor offers Liles plus a 3rd and some other random prospect.

Start the bashing, but evidence is on my side. People don't really think the Leafs have been passing on any kind of offer this summer in the midst of the Franson/Kaddri/salary cap issues and with better options on defense?

Start the bashing, but evidence is on my side. People don't really think the Leafs have been passing on any kind of offer this summer in the midst of the Franson/Kaddri/salary cap issues and with better options on defense?
- CarolinaMatt63

I don't disagree. Lesser value was a poor choice of words. I should have said free if we hold back salary and with a prospect if the Leafs don't retain salary. I think a lot of leaf fans get this notion.

I see the leafs being in a mini lu/schnieder situation with Liles/Franson. Do you trade the younger player with top 4 potential for a decent return or do you trade the older player with an onerous contract and retain salary/give up prospects.


EDIT: do you think Carolina is a possible destination for liles, all things you said considered?

I don't disagree. Lesser value was a poor choice of words. I should have said free if we hold back salary and with a prospect if the Leafs don't retain salary. I think a lot of leaf fans get this notion.

I see the leafs being in a mini lu/schnieder situation with Liles/Franson. Do you trade the younger player with top 4 potential for a decent return or do you trade the older player with an onerous contract and retain salary/give up prospects.


EDIT: do you think Carolina is a possible destination for liles, all things you said considered?
- doinktheclown

I doubt it. The Canes really need a top 4 or as close as they can get to it. In Komisarek and Harrison, the team does not have a #5 kind of guy that they can expect to elevate to #4 and then backfill the 3rd pairing slot. I watch Leafs hockey much less than you obviously, but if I were rating players as "most likely to be top 4 capable", I think I would put Liles below Hainsey, probably also Niskanen and maybe even Gilbert. None of those players should command a king's ransom at this point, so I think it more likely that Rutherford will go with 1 of those options for the easiest fix unless he decides to try to pull off a bigger trade (i.e. Franson, 1 of the decent vets in Calgary, etc.)

I doubt it. The Canes really need a top 4 or as close as they can get to it. In Komisarek and Harrison, the team does not have a #5 kind of guy that they can expect to elevate to #4 and then backfill the 3rd pairing slot. I watch Leafs hockey much less than you obviously, but if I were rating players as "most likely to be top 4 capable", I think I would put Liles below Hainsey, probably also Niskanen and maybe even Gilbert. None of those players should command a king's ransom at this point, so I think it more likely that Rutherford will go with 1 of those options for the easiest fix unless he decides to try to pull off a bigger trade (i.e. Franson, 1 of the decent vets in Calgary, etc.)
- CarolinaMatt63

Seems like there are a handful of reasonable options out there for Carolina.

Thanks for the detailed responses.