GARTH: Deal Or No Deal?

That's alot to overhaul for the #1 pick. Do I believe we need a new face to this franchise? Yes. However, their are many more concerns involving this team than just one draft pick.

Going back to what Homer said yesterday, Darcy is running out of "friends" fast. TP heard exactly how things are being run last year from Lindy. I have a feeling that if things don't improve in the future months, Darcy will be shown the door.

If that's the trade for the 1st overall then Regier should be fired.

Ask yourself what you can get if you trade the pieces seperately. Each of those players could get you a first round pick + a top end prospect in return.

So forget the 1st overall and instead try to land 3 first round picks, likely a second in there as well and then 3 top end prospects.

If that's the trade for the 1st overall then Regier should be fired.

Ask yourself what you can get if you trade the pieces seperately. Each of those players could get you a first round pick + a top end prospect in return.

So forget the 1st overall and instead try to land 3 first round picks, likely a second in there as well and then 3 top end prospects.
- willey101

so maybe we want him to make the pick then

I feel that with either Vanek or Miller or both leaving, getting back into the first round is almost a guarantee.

If that's the trade for the 1st overall then Regier should be fired.

Ask yourself what you can get if you trade the pieces seperately. Each of those players could get you a first round pick + a top end prospect in return.

So forget the 1st overall and instead try to land 3 first round picks, likely a second in there as well and then 3 top end prospects.
- willey101

Agreed here. No need to sell the house for the #1 pick and frankly Regier won't do it anyway. Speculation is fun but in the real world making a "Super Trade" is just not Darcy's style.

Why does everybody think that moving up will help this team? it won't. Why give up so much for 1 player makes no sense. Pick at 8th and 16th and build from there. But this is Darcy we are talking about and he has self destructed this franchise for 16 yrs. now. They should add pieces for Vanek not move him, but maybe Vanek has another "vision" about staying.

Why does everybody think that moving up will help this team? it won't. Why give up so much for 1 player makes no sense. Pick at 8th and 16th and build from there. But this is Darcy we are talking about and he has self destructed this franchise for 16 yrs. now. They should add pieces for Vanek not move him, but maybe Vanek has another "vision" about staying.
- SABRES 89

You are the ringleader around here for the criticism of Darcy Regier, and most of the time you are spot on. However, you contradict yourself when you criticize Regier for making bad moves, and then say he should start building around a 29 year old. That would be one of the dumbest moves he's ever made to date.

If that's the trade for the 1st overall then Regier should be fired.

Ask yourself what you can get if you trade the pieces seperately. Each of those players could get you a first round pick + a top end prospect in return.

So forget the 1st overall and instead try to land 3 first round picks, likely a second in there as well and then 3 top end prospects.
- willey101

This. Exactly this.

There is so much hype now for the top pick...it's just a feeding frenzy, and for no good reason other than the media talks about it incessantly, so casual fans start obsessing.

Was Sidney Crosby a first overall pick? Yes. OK. Great for him and the Pens.

Was Martin Brodeur? Nope. 20th overall.

Was Erik Karlsson? Nope. 14th overall.

Was Claude Giroux? Nope. 22nd overall.

The post I quoted is a great one. Teams need to understand this more.

Everyone understands that, right now, Buffalo needs a change of direction. It happens to all teams, where individual pieces are worth more than the sum.

But Buffalo absolutely has enough good pieces that they don't need to sell them all in one deal, for one pick.

Thomas Vanek will get you AT LEAST a pick and a prospect. So will Ryan Miller. So will Tyler Myers.

Drew Stafford will get you a pick or prospect. You already cashed in Jason Pominville and got a nice return on that.

Buffalo...just relax. You guys are better off than you think. You really are. You've got young pieces like Grigorenko and Girgensons, Matt Hackett. You've got some good veteran pieces like Christian Erhoff and Steve Ott.

It's OK to take a deep breath and not underrate what you can do with assets you already have and overrate what one pick might do if you overpay to get it.

This. Exactly this.

There is so much hype now for the top pick...it's just a feeding frenzy, and for no good reason other than the media talks about it incessantly, so casual fans start obsessing.

Was Sidney Crosby a first overall pick? Yes. OK. Great for him and the Pens.

Was Martin Brodeur? Nope. 20th overall.

Was Erik Karlsson? Nope. 14th overall.

Was Claude Giroux? Nope. 22nd overall.

The post I quoted is a great one. Teams need to understand this more.

Everyone understands that, right now, Buffalo needs a change of direction. It happens to all teams, where individual pieces are worth more than the sum.

But Buffalo absolutely has enough good pieces that they don't need to sell them all in one deal, for one pick.

Thomas Vanek will get you AT LEAST a pick and a prospect. So will Ryan Miller. So will Tyler Myers.

Drew Stafford will get you a pick or prospect. You already cashed in Jason Pominville and got a nice return on that.

Buffalo...just relax. You guys are better off than you think. You really are. You've got young pieces like Grigorenko and Girgensons, Matt Hackett. You've got some good veteran pieces like Christian Erhoff and Steve Ott.

It's OK to take a deep breath and not underrate what you can do with assets you already have and overrate what one pick might do if you overpay to get it.
- AllInForFlyers

The #1 overall picks for the past 10+ years have been studs. You're not just "overpaying" for the pick. You are "overpaying" to minimize your risk as well. And that is much more valuable than people give it credit for.

The #1 overall picks for the past 10+ years have been studs. You're not just "overpaying" for the pick. You are "overpaying" to minimize your risk as well. And that is much more valuable than people give it credit for.
- buffalofan19

But other players have been studs too -- Marc-Andre Fleury is no better to have than Eric Staal or Ryan Suter, from 2003.

Erik Johnson is no better to have than Jonathan Toews or Claude Giroux, from 2006.

Sidney Crosby's a generational player in 2005, yes.

But Steven Stamkos is no better to have than Drew Doughty or Alex Pietrangelo or Erik Karlsson, all draftees from 2008.

Minimizing risk...there's risk every single time you draft an 18-year-old. You can't just say that's worth overpaying for simply because it's easier to pick first overall.

You are the ringleader around here for the criticism of Darcy Regier, and most of the time you are spot on. However, you contradict yourself when you criticize Regier for making bad moves, and then say he should start building around a 29 year old. That would be one of the dumbest moves he's ever made to date.
- buffalofan19

You don't trade all that for a guy that won't help this team for another 3 years at least, they should build around Vanek, you can't ice a team full of young kids that will get you no place in this league and in our division as well. In your opinion that would be a dumb move.

But other players have been studs too -- Marc-Andre Fleury is no better to have than Eric Staal or Ryan Suter, from 2003.

Erik Johnson is no better to have than Jonathan Toews or Claude Giroux, from 2006.

Sidney Crosby's a generational player in 2005, yes.

But Steven Stamkos is no better to have than Drew Doughty or Alex Pietrangelo or Erik Karlsson, all draftees from 2008.

Minimizing risk...there's risk every single time you draft an 18-year-old. You can't just say that's worth overpaying for simply because it's easier to pick first overall.
- AllInForFlyers

The impact that Stamkos can have on a team is greater definitely better than Pietrangelo will ever have, probably better than Karlsson (not saying I wouldn't take him on my team), and is probably about even with Doughty, though even then, I'd probably give the edge to Stamkos based on durability alone. When Stamkos came out, the scouting results on him came out much higher than anyone in his class, and he has delivered in spades. The thing with the #1 overall pick is that it essentially is a no-brainer, while everything else takes some though. You are getting about as close to a "can't miss" as you possibly can get versus praying that the guy works out. With the #1 pick, you are also getting a guy that can contribute right away, versus all those other picks, where it takes at least one of two years for them to even start to make an impact.

You don't trade all that for a guy that won't help this team for another 3 years at least, they should build around Vanek, you can't ice a team full of young kids that will get you no place in this league and in our division as well. In your opinion that would be a dumb move.
- SABRES 89

Not if you're rebuilding it isn't. Unless you think you are close to a Cup, you need to start building around someone much younger than Vanek. By the time you are set, Vanek will be on the wrong side of his peak.

Also, guys like MacKinnon can contribute right away. Virtually every #1 overall has for the past 10+ years.

You don't trade all that for a guy that won't help this team for another 3 years at least, they should build around Vanek, you can't ice a team full of young kids that will get you no place in this league and in our division as well. In your opinion that would be a dumb move.
- SABRES 89

Myers+Miller +8th is waaaay too much. Not town toon adding McNabb and Grigo??? Or Vanek??? Never would a trade like that happen

Also what no one mentions is that there is no clear cut number 1, COL could take Mackinnon or Jones. If it were a player like JT or Stamkos who were clear cut top picks it would be different

You don't trade all that for a guy that won't help this team for another 3 years at least, they should build around Vanek, you can't ice a team full of young kids that will get you no place in this league and in our division as well. In your opinion that would be a dumb move.
- SABRES 89

I think MacKinnon and Jones have an impact this year. MacKinnon would be the best center on the team day 1 if we got him.

Myers+Miller +8th is waaaay too much. Not town toon adding McNabb and Grigo??? Or Vanek??? Never would a trade like that happen

Also what no one mentions is that there is no clear cut number 1, COL could take Mackinnon or Jones. If it were a player like JT or Stamkos who were clear cut top picks it would be different
- sbroads24

The fact that there is no "clear-cut" between them doesn't mean that either one of them would be just as good of a pick as either of those two. If you believe the scouting, that's exactly what both of them are.

Last 2 years with both clubs:

Paul Martin
73GP 2G 25A 27P +/-: 9
34GP 6G 17A 23P +/-: 14

PPG: 0.467

Christian Ehrhoff
66GP 5G 27A 32P +/-: -2
47GP 5G 17A 22P +/-: 6

PPG: 0.477

They are definitely comparable in the regular season.

The fact that there is no "clear-cut" between them doesn't mean that either one of them would be just as good of a pick as either of those two. If you believe the scouting, that's exactly what both of them are.
- buffalofan19

Which I get, but partially why your paying so much in a trade is for the label of number 1 overall. If the Sabres want Mackinnon, there's a solid chance that he's there at 2 and you would most likely have to give up less for the 2nd pick.

The impact that Stamkos can have on a team is greater definitely better than Pietrangelo will ever have, probably better than Karlsson (not saying I wouldn't take him on my team), and is probably about even with Doughty, though even then, I'd probably give the edge to Stamkos based on durability alone. When Stamkos came out, the scouting results on him came out much higher than anyone in his class, and he has delivered in spades. The thing with the #1 overall pick is that it essentially is a no-brainer, while everything else takes some though. You are getting about as close to a "can't miss" as you possibly can get versus praying that the guy works out. With the #1 pick, you are also getting a guy that can contribute right away, versus all those other picks, where it takes at least one of two years for them to even start to make an impact.
- buffalofan19

But that's exactly the point -- you're in a rebuild. That's not a crime. The crime is trying to shortcut a rebuild by burning off your assets, not maximizing them all, because you're unwilling to wait those two years.

Certainly, there's numerous ways to skin a cat. We can both find teams that have benefited from doing it either way.

The #1 overall picks for the past 10+ years have been studs. You're not just "overpaying" for the pick. You are "overpaying" to minimize your risk as well. And that is much more valuable than people give it credit for.
- buffalofan19

Erik Johnson is an exception, but yes. For every Martin Broduer or Claude Giroux, there is a Scott Scissons (6th overall in Marty's draft year) and David Fischer (20th overall in Giroux's). The #1 pick is as close as you can get to a sure thing.

Not if you're rebuilding it isn't. Unless you think you are close to a Cup, you need to start building around someone much younger than Vanek. By the time you are set, Vanek will be on the wrong side of his peak.

Also, guys like MacKinnon can contribute right away. Virtually every #1 overall has for the past 10+ years.
- buffalofan19

Once again your opinion and number 1 picks pan out but not with the Sabres, you actually think if they move up it will make a difference? I doubt it not a chance.

The fact that there is no "clear-cut" between them doesn't mean that either one of them would be just as good of a pick as either of those two. If you believe the scouting, that's exactly what both of them are.
- buffalofan19

I just listened to the Adrian Dater call on WGR and he seems to think the Avs could take MacKinnon. I don't see how they could justify drafting another center when their defense is so subpar. Unless they traded Statsny away prior to the draft. Would anyone trade miller for Statsny straight up? They mentioned that in the call.

Myers+Miller +8th is waaaay too much. Not town toon adding McNabb and Grigo??? Or Vanek??? Never would a trade like that happen

Also what no one mentions is that there is no clear cut number 1, COL could take Mackinnon or Jones. If it were a player like JT or Stamkos who were clear cut top picks it would be different
- sbroads24

Trading all those guys away does nothing for this team, it's a foolish mistake that will set this team back . IMO Darcy has already ruined Grigo, should have left that kid in the minors to learn more. Darcy will continue to ruin this team until someone in this organization grows some balls and gets rid of him.

Once again your opinion and number 1 picks pan out but not with the Sabres, you actually think if they move up it will make a difference? I doubt it not a chance.
- SABRES 89

I think they have a much better chance of it making a difference at the #1 overall than the #8 overall, for the very reason you stated: I don't trust Darcy to make the right decision. By moving to #1 overall, you take the decision-making out of his hands, which is the only way this team gets better.

Trading all those guys away does nothing for this team, it's a foolish mistake that will set this team back . IMO Darcy has already ruined Grigo, should have left that kid in the minors to learn more. Darcy will continue to ruin this team until someone in this organization grows some balls and gets rid of him.
- SABRES 89

If the rumor is true that Lindy laid some truf about Darcy on Pegula I can't figure out why he would leave him in charge of the rebuild process.