Brad Marsh: Poulin's Firing and Other Head Scratchers

Re "Pouiie", I couldn't agree with you more Chuck. A friend of mine since his days with the AHL Maine Mariners, there is not a better person in the game and he should not be unemployed long. Perhaps he will join Burkie's shop in Calgary as he has hired him twice before with Anaheim and Toronto. He would be a perfect fit there.

Maybe Shanny has been hanging out with Mr. Ford? No worries, TO's Loss is someone else's gain.

Ok, so what do you know about Toronto and Mayor Ford. The guy is solid in working for the community he represents. He personally has made a positive impact in my neighbourhood with maintaining the neighbourhood park, putting in soccer posts, putting in trees, fixing the playground, etc...

He's better than any of the schmucks running against him despite all his faults.

Whenever I hear a team being praised or criticized because some player they acquired has good Corsi (or Fenwick) numbers, I ask myself what has happened to the criteria that were valued in the game I played. Astute hockey people have always asked these questions:

Can the kid play?
Is he a two-way player?
Can he play in traffic?
Does he get nose dirty?
Does he have guts?
What is his make up?
Is he a leader?
Does he have hockey sense?
When he is on the ice, is he in charge? Does he take control?

It's not as if these questions aren't still being asked, but when it comes down to it, these "new school" analytics are just another tool that people in management positions can use to identify more detailed questions such as;

Does the guy's team control the puck when he's on the ice?
Is he the driving force behind the play or is he more or less riding the coattails of a superior linemate?
Does he get most of his shots from in high scoring areas, or is it a lot of work off the outside?
Is he racking up a lot of hits because he rarely has the puck? Same for blocked shots?
How does he (Player A) fair with certain types of other players (e.g. a power winger (Player B) brought about better play in him than the high-end dangler (Player C))?
Did he ride a lot of "puck luck" (quantified in a combination of Sh%, On-Ice Sh%, and On-Ice Sv% [among others]) to reach his high primary stat (Gs, As, and such) totals this year?

The way I see it, the extra stats just help me delve deeper into/quantify your first four categories.

That having been said, there'll always been room for practical experience at the proverbial 'table of hockey-talk' as there are certain facets of the game that one has to experience to fully grasp. Things like leadership and hockey sense aren't really quantifiable with stats- barring some miraculous breakthrough in heartbeat and brain monitoring technology, that is.

The only people who don't see the value in advanced stats in hockey are those who don't fully understand how to use them correctly. Simple as that. They're not the end-all of how to value a player, and it's not even solely based on shot attempts as there's plenty of advanced stats that focus on point production, effectiveness on the PP/PK, etc.

I can't take anyone who chooses to completely ignore them or write them off seriously. Your eyes can deceive you as players who are riding good puck luck or being used favourably by their coaches will appear to be better than they truly are and vice-versa. Good luck trying to run an NHL team by falling into that trap constantly.

Solid move by the Leafs to fire those 2 who have gone on record saying that they don't place value in advanced stats. Replacing them with a bright, forward-thinking guy like Dubas was brilliant.

Great read. A few thoughts:

"I don't really know what Brendan Shahanan and the rest of the Leafs organization was thinking"

Nobody knows what the heck these guys are thinking. Not now, not ever.

Also, I think that advanced stats are a sore subject when they shouldn't be. The questions you posed are great questions to ask about a player, and should still always be a factor for teams when deciding what players they want. I think that advanced stats are simply another tool. I think that ignoring them is foolish, just as putting too much weight on them is foolish. Hockey is a sport where you have to watch the game to know what a player does and doesn't do. Advanced stats just help you to interpret what you're seeing.

The people of Ontario returned the Fiberals to power. So yes there are tons of idiots in Toronto and Ontario.

The people of Ontario returned the Fiberals to power. So yes there are tons of idiots in Toronto and Ontario.
- isitin

Just what HB needs. Politics.

The people of Ontario returned the Fiberals to power. So yes there are tons of idiots in Toronto and Ontario.
- isitin

I agree but would also argue that the closer you look into any of today's demographics, you'll find tons and tons of idiots.

I agree but would also argue that the closer you look into any of today's demographics, you'll find tons and tons of idiots.
- Crying_Wrestler

Agree.. and they're breeding a lot faster than the non-idiots. The (not so good) movie "Idiocracy" was supposed to be comedic satire. Seems more like a guidebook now.

The people of Ontario returned the Fiberals to power. So yes there are tons of idiots in Toronto and Ontario.
- isitin

the city of Toronto returned the Fiberals to power since the majority of there seats come from there

What a ridiculous and tone-deaf set of comments about "advanced stats."

Firstly, so-called "advanced stats" are only advanced if you think basic arithmetic is advanced. If you graduated middle school, then you should be able to wrap your brain around it.

Secondly, why is quoting traditional stats like goals or +/- somehow ok, but thinking a step or two past that is for eggheads?

Thirdly, I see a trend that opponents of advanced stats like to pretend that advanced stats people are just running computer simulations and crunching numbers instead of watching any actual hockey. This strawman argument is the same kind of false dichotomy you see bandied about in politics and we all know the level of discourse there. The advanced stats are just another tool and no one thinks they are treated as the end-all and be-all except for the chumps who never bothered to understand them.

Finally, the advanced stats are simply facts. Yes, they have to be interpreted, and that introduces plenty of room for judgement and error. But they are factual, numerical measures. How can you claim to be any kind of analyst while just plain ignoring facts?

Thanks for the interesting blog Brad. Some great stimulus for discussion.

I think the movement towards 'advanced stats' is really just hockey clubs joining the rest of the world in using "big data" to advise decision making. The old expression "managing by facts and data" can also be applied to hockey.

Businesses are digging ever deeper into data analytics to understand their customers and their employees better. There is no reason that a hockey team shouldn't use data to understand how their business and their employees - the players - are performing.

When you played teams made the move to much more video analysis to try to achieve the same thing. This is taking it a step further. But it is all being done for the same reason. To be able to make informed decisions based on facts and data that support what your eyes and other inputs are telling you.

As for Rob Ford - couldn't agree more. Toronto will be a laughing stock around the world if they re-elect this guy as their mayor. Sadly it actually looks like it could happen.

Ok, so what do you know about Toronto and Mayor Ford. The guy is solid in working for the community he represents. He personally has made a positive impact in my neighbourhood with maintaining the neighbourhood park, putting in soccer posts, putting in trees, fixing the playground, etc...

He's better than any of the schmucks running against him despite all his faults.
- kaptaan

lol he was the sole vote against a city park improvement, using private money mind you, and then later in a photo op he told a little girl he built the park meanwhile he voted against it

then there's the covering up his association with hardcore dixon city gang bangers involved in guns and murder on our streets

I think we can get parks fixed by someone else.

What a ridiculous and tone-deaf set of comments about "advanced stats."

Firstly, so-called "advanced stats" are only advanced if you think basic arithmetic is advanced. If you graduated middle school, then you should be able to wrap your brain around it.

Secondly, why is quoting traditional stats like goals or +/- somehow ok, but thinking a step or two past that is for eggheads?

Thirdly, I see a trend that opponents of advanced stats like to pretend that advanced stats people are just running computer simulations and crunching numbers instead of watching any actual hockey. This strawman argument is the same kind of false dichotomy you see bandied about in politics and we all know the level of discourse there. The advanced stats are just another tool and no one thinks they are treated as the end-all and be-all except for the chumps who never bothered to understand them.

Finally, the advanced stats are simply facts. Yes, they have to be interpreted, and that introduces plenty of room for judgement and error. But they are factual, numerical measures. How can you claim to be any kind of analyst while just plain ignoring facts?
- josh314

Perfectly stated.

And following up Scoop's comment, I'm sure that "Poulie" is smart, a top ambassador for the game, and an all-round solid guy, but that alone sadly just doesn't justify employment. What is clear is that the recent status quo at Toronto was not producing results, or there wouldn't have even been the need to hire Shanahan. They say that if it ain't broke, don't fix it, so if it is broken, there is only one rational course of action. It sucks to speak so passively about somebody's employment, but hockey is very results driven and the results for the Leafs quite simply have not been there...