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Forums :: Blog World :: Bill Meltzer: Meltzer's Musings: Weber Watch
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nails
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: thread killer, PA
Joined: 02.05.2007

Jul 20 @ 9:19 AM ET
So if it was Jake, Weber, and MAB.....we still need another forward then right?
Habs Rule
Montreal Canadiens
Location: Montreal
Joined: 07.05.2006

Jul 20 @ 9:19 AM ET
Weber won't cost "way less" for another 10 years. By the time he's getting paid $3 million and $1 million in salary he will be 37--or as old as Pronger is now.
- sheerrw


Weber at 6M per year in 7 years will be a joke. That's what I mean by way less. Huge investment in the beginning, but advantageous long term. Will they invest? I would. It's Shea Weber.
jak521
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Buckle Up.
Joined: 02.19.2008

Jul 20 @ 9:19 AM ET
If there's a lockout, that $26mm will be less, regardless.
- Jsaquella

From a non-hockey point of view.. this would be a death blow.

Imagine if they did it and had Weber go down for a season...
isaiah520
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: "All train compartments smell vaguely of sh*t. It gets so you don't mind it"
Joined: 12.26.2006

Jul 20 @ 9:19 AM ET
The only problem with that theory is that the Preds actually need to find someone to lend them enough to cover the salary, and do so by next week. In reality I think it comes down to whether one or more of the owners is willing to personally pony up the dough to keep the team competitive in the short term instead of rebuilding.
- sheerrw

that's where the suter loss hurts as well. a projection of their gate receipts has to look like a decline.
Ondrej F
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Prague
Joined: 02.17.2010

Jul 20 @ 9:20 AM ET

And as a Habs fan, I want them to match

- Habs Rule


This is the point, we know...
spatso
Ottawa Senators
Location: jensen beach, FL
Joined: 02.19.2007

Jul 20 @ 9:20 AM ET
It does not change the fact that Nash as to reach the cap floor, and need some gig contracts to reach it. The always wanted to pay Weber 7.8M per year, that is not an issue for them. It's the 27M in the first year, but financed at 5%, that's an extra 1M per year, which Mr. Weber is worth plenty. I'm a CPA and know my finances well and trust me here, people are making this a tuff financial decision, but it is not at all. Weber is the face of their franchise, revenues will go down even more if he leaves. Nash can't afford to let him go both hockey and financially wise. It's really a no brainer decision and Philly as proviedd Mr. Weber to Nash for 7.8M per year. Not sure Nash is that upset about it.
- Habs Rule


Thank you, thank you, thank you. It is unbelievable how people have distorted the numbers. People keep talking in terms of $27m for one year. But, it is $27m paid over 12 months that covers two years of services. In terms of asset value, Weber is Nashvilles most valuable asset. This is a classic case of asset retention. A small shareholder loan and subsequent recapitalization puts everything on a solid footing. If the current owners feel squeezed, it is even more important for them to recapitalize the team for subsequent sale. From a pure business perspective it would be ludicrous for Nashville not to match.

The only reason they don't match is if Holmgren makes them a very strong offer, much better than four first round picks.
isaiah520
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: "All train compartments smell vaguely of sh*t. It gets so you don't mind it"
Joined: 12.26.2006

Jul 20 @ 9:20 AM ET
If there's a lockout, that $26mm will be less, regardless.
- Jsaquella

that could be a big deciding factor
Philly1980
Philadelphia Flyers
Joined: 12.30.2011

Jul 20 @ 9:21 AM ET
If there's a lockout, that $26mm will be less, regardless.
- Jsaquella


If theres a lockout its probably less than zero ..... someone has to pay the lease and keep the lights on....
flyersfan51
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: United States, NJ
Joined: 10.04.2006

Jul 20 @ 9:21 AM ET
Bill Meltzer: Meltzer's Musings: Weber Watch
- bmeltzer


I honestly woke up this morning thinking it was a dream.
psoneill
Joined: 05.29.2009

Jul 20 @ 9:21 AM ET
pff only two first rounder try 3 or 4.
- Philly1980


Interesting option. I think Nashville would agree to that.

Schenn bros for Weber is fair given the money situation.
jak521
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Buckle Up.
Joined: 02.19.2008

Jul 20 @ 9:22 AM ET
Weber at 6M per year in 7 years will be a joke. That's what I mean by way less. Huge investment in the beginning, but advantageous long term. Will they invest? I would. It's Shea Weber.
- Habs Rule

I understand what you are saying, but the fact that it is so high in the beginning may prevent them from being able to invest.. You dont invest in something that only has a minimal chance at paying off in the end.

Their debt over the first 6 years would be insane... and they likely would not be able to field a super competitive team. SO, by year 6 when Weber is 32, they would possibly be able to start to attract high quality players who demand high salaries..
stveshdy
Philadelphia Flyers
Joined: 06.28.2010

Jul 20 @ 9:22 AM ET
Thank you, thank you, thank you. It is unbelievable how people have distorted the numbers. People keep talking in terms of $27m for one year. But, it is $27m paid over 12 months that covers two years of services. In terms of asset value, Weber is Nashvilles most valuable asset. This is a classic case of asset retention. A small shareholder loan and subsequent recapitalization puts everything on a solid footing. If the current owners feel squeezed, it is even more important for them to recapitalize the team for subsequent sale. From a pure business perspective it would be ludicrous for Nashville not to match.

The only reason they don't match is if Holmgren makes them a very strong offer, much better than four first round picks.

- spatso


If I'm Holmgren I don't offer anything. Match or don't match. The Flyers team is pretty set. Nashville is the desperate team here.
flyersfan51
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: United States, NJ
Joined: 10.04.2006

Jul 20 @ 9:22 AM ET
Thank you, thank you, thank you. It is unbelievable how people have distorted the numbers. People keep talking in terms of $27m for one year. But, it is $27m paid over 12 months that covers two years of services. In terms of asset value, Weber is Nashvilles most valuable asset. This is a classic case of asset retention. A small shareholder loan and subsequent recapitalization puts everything on a solid footing. If the current owners feel squeezed, it is even more important for them to recapitalize the team for subsequent sale. From a pure business perspective it would be ludicrous for Nashville not to match.

The only reason they don't match is if Holmgren makes them a very strong offer, much better than four first round picks.

- spatso


how are they going to pay him 27 million when they don't even bring in that much in ticket sales?
jak521
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Buckle Up.
Joined: 02.19.2008

Jul 20 @ 9:23 AM ET
Thank you, thank you, thank you. It is unbelievable how people have distorted the numbers. People keep talking in terms of $27m for one year. But, it is $27m paid over 12 months that covers two years of services. In terms of asset value, Weber is Nashvilles most valuable asset. This is a classic case of asset retention. A small shareholder loan and subsequent recapitalization puts everything on a solid footing. If the current owners feel squeezed, it is even more important for them to recapitalize the team for subsequent sale. From a pure business perspective it would be ludicrous for Nashville not to match.

The only reason they don't match is if Holmgren makes them a very strong offer, much better than four first round picks.

- spatso

So my 6 year spread doesnt matter?
jak521
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Buckle Up.
Joined: 02.19.2008

Jul 20 @ 9:23 AM ET
If I'm Holmgren I don't offer anything. Match or don't match. The Flyers team is pretty set. Nashville is the desperate team here.
- stveshdy

jak521
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Buckle Up.
Joined: 02.19.2008

Jul 20 @ 9:25 AM ET
I love that they will do whatever it takes to win. Sometimes that blind ambition leads to questionable decisions, but I never question the desire to win
- Jsaquella

We have missed the playoffs 8 times in 44 years.
aightwebang17
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Typical Montreal, PA
Joined: 07.10.2008

Jul 20 @ 9:25 AM ET
I don't want to lose Jakey.
sulshawn
Joined: 07.28.2008

Jul 20 @ 9:25 AM ET
pff only two first rounder try 3 or 4.
- Philly1980


Not saying I would want to that happen, but it wouldn't surprise me.

Obviously, Homer wasn't including both Brayden and Couturier in a trade. I still think a defenseman would be included in a deal since Nashville lost Suter and would lose Weber and have 4 NHL ready D.

That would leave the possibilities of Coburn-Mez-Luke and Bourdon. Bourdon isn't enough. Mez is coming off back surgery. That leaves Coburn or Luke. I think Nsh would rather have a proven Coburn but would gladly like Luke.

The Flyers want Weber so Nashville is going to try and get as much as they can to NOT match the offer. Getting both Schenns and the draft picks would allow Nashville to accept the loss of Weber easier. Again, not saying I want this to happen as a Flyers fan, but it wouldn't surprise me. Also looked at what Flyers gave up for a 34 year Pronger in Lupul, Sbisa, and 2 first round picks and a 3rd. To say the Flyers would give both Schenns and 2 firsts to get a 26 year Weber (so Nashville doesn't match) isn't crazy
flyersfan51
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: United States, NJ
Joined: 10.04.2006

Jul 20 @ 9:26 AM ET
I don't want to lose Jakey.
- aightwebang17


i don't think we will lose him. someone said we had 12 mil still in cap space. so 7.8 for Weber and give jake a 5/17.5 deal.
eayost
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Into the Void, PA
Joined: 04.14.2010

Jul 20 @ 9:26 AM ET
Weber at 6M per year in 7 years will be a joke. That's what I mean by way less. Huge investment in the beginning, but advantageous long term. Will they invest? I would. It's Shea Weber.
- Habs Rule


Then, as Jsaq mentioned, why wasn't this deal already done a year ago, when they could have also still enticed Suter to stay? It just sounds so easy
sheerrw
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Newtown, PA
Joined: 09.29.2006

Jul 20 @ 9:26 AM ET
that's where the suter loss hurts as well. a projection of their gate receipts has to look like a decline.
- isaiah520


Definitely. Losing Weber too would make it worse, but the absolute worst case scenario is keeping Weber but not making the playoffs. Weber alone won't keep butts in the seats--the team still has to win. It all goes back to Bill's point about whether the Preds can put together a solid supporting cast around Rinne and Weber.
jak521
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Buckle Up.
Joined: 02.19.2008

Jul 20 @ 9:27 AM ET
If I'm Holmgren I don't offer anything. Match or don't match. The Flyers team is pretty set. Nashville is the desperate team here.
- stveshdy

I think a lot of us are dismissing something right off the bat. Flyers brass are more than capable at crunching numbers. They are more likely to know the limits of the Preds purse than us. There is a specific reason the first 6 years are so high. WAIT.. be patient, and most of all DONT BUDGE.
Philly1980
Philadelphia Flyers
Joined: 12.30.2011

Jul 20 @ 9:27 AM ET
Anyone else thinks this is an out for Nashville? An excuse for them to rebuild? I really dont think homer would screw them over like this.
jstross
Joined: 06.25.2012

Jul 20 @ 9:27 AM ET
Of all the Predators young forwards please list the ones that would make the Flyers top 2 and 3 lines if Vorecek is dealt? Also, do they have a good young 4th line guy that ould help the Flyers 4th line.
psoneill
Joined: 05.29.2009

Jul 20 @ 9:27 AM ET
Not saying I would want to that happen, but it wouldn't surprise me.

Obviously, Homer wasn't including both Brayden and Couturier in a trade. I still think a defenseman would be included in a deal since Nashville lost Suter and would lose Weber and have 4 NHL ready D.

That would leave the possibilities of Coburn-Mez-Luke and Bourdon. Bourdon isn't enough. Mez is coming off back surgery. That leaves Coburn or Luke. I think Nsh would rather have a proven Coburn but would gladly like Luke.

The Flyers want Weber so Nashville is going to try and get as much as they can to NOT match the offer. Getting both Schenns and the draft picks would allow Nashville to accept the loss of Weber easier. Again, not saying I want this to happen as a Flyers fan, but it wouldn't surprise me. Also looked at what Flyers gave up for a 34 year Pronger in Lupul, Sbisa, and 2 first round picks and a 3rd. To say the Flyers would give both Schenns and 2 firsts to get a 26 year Weber (so Nashville doesn't match) isn't crazy

- sulshawn


Someone who isn't pipe dreaming!
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